The last couple of international tournaments have been ones to forget for Polish football fans. After a run to the quarterfinals of the 2016 European Championships two years prior, big things were expected going into the 2018 FIFA World Cup. However, this ended up being far from the case. The Biało-czerwoni finished bottom of their group, which spelled the end of Adam Nawałka’s five-year spell in charge of his country.
Fast forward to 2020, and under the management of Portuguese manager Paulo Sousa, Poland found themselves once again struggling in a European tournament, finishing bottom of their EURO 2020 group with only a single point after three matches.
Still in the Polish ranks is the prolific Robert Lewandowski, now of Barcelona. However, going into the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, the Polish national team has become somewhat of an unknown commodity. A new manager is again in the hot seat, with former Poland U21 boss Czesław Michniewicz now in charge going into the tournament. Young talent has also started to break into the senior squad, with Spezia’s Jakub Kiwior, Feyenoord’s Sebastian Szymanski, and AS Roma’s Nicola Zalewski all likely to be not just on the plane to Qatar, but in the starting lineup for the first group stage match.
They should be a side to watch come the end of November, as this tactical analysis and scout report will illustrate — especially with this likely being Robert Lewandowski’s last World Cup.
Predicted starting XI
Through his short time in charge of the Polish national team so far (eight matches), Czesław Michniewicz has experimented with different personnel and starting formations to try and find the best solution. The graphic above shows what he will likely go with in the opening match of their group on the 22nd of November against Mexico. This 3-4-2-1 system has been what the Polish boss has used in their last warm-up games before the World Cup.
Looking at the defence, Juventus’s Wojciech Szczęsny is an absolute lock to start in goal for Poland. The 66-cap international has become the undisputed #1 between the sticks since Łukasz Fabiański’s retirement from international football last year. Moving forward into the defensive line, we predict that Michniewicz will stick with three centre-backs. Aston Villa’s Jan Bednarek and Benevento’s Kamil Glik will likely start, with Spezia’s Jakub Kiwior being a surprise addition to the starting lineup. Though he only has 4 senior caps to his name after making his senior international debut earlier this year, the 22-year-old has begun to establish himself firmly in the manager’s plans.
Moving up the pitch into midfield, 93 cap man Grzegorz Krychowiak will once again be the anchor in the midfield at another international tournament for Poland, with the Al-Shabab player being Poland’s most experienced starter in midfield. Next to him will likely be Torino midfielder Karol Linetty, who after an indifferent campaign for his club in the 2021/22 season, has excelled for club and country so far this term.
Moving out to the wing-back/wide midfielder positions, Nicola Zalewski and Matty Cash look like the likely starters. The former broke into the AS Roma side last season under José Mourinho and has become one to watch in the very near future. As for Cash, the defender has made the starting spot on the right side since switching his international allegiance from England to Poland last year.
In the attacking positions, Sebastian Szymański will likely start alongside Piotr Zielinski in attacking midfield. Szymański has had a very good start to the season for Feyenoord, with 4 goals and 4 assists across all competitions so far this season. Michniewicz will be hoping that Zielinski can also transfer his form from the club scene to country in November, with the Napoli playmaker having scored four goals and provided six assists across all competitions for the Partenopei this season. Finally, leading the line for Poland will be none other than Robert Lewandowski. Poland’s all-time leading goal scorer with 76 goals for his country will be hoping he can add to that tally at the end of November.
As of the time of writing this, the final 26-man squad has not been announced by Czesław Michniewciz. However, the scatter plot above shows the age range of the likely squad that he will bring to Qatar. Poland has a relatively healthy mix of different age groups of players, with the majority between the ages of 24-30. This indicates that the majority of the playing squad are in the “prime” of their playing career, with young talent and the older, more experienced international players mixed in as well.
Out of the possible starting XI, four of the likely starters (Lewandowski, Glik, Szczęsny, and Krychowiak) are older and more experienced, while the other seven players will likely be a combination of both young talent and players in the primes of their careers.
Attacking phase
The attacking pie chart metric above takes a look at how Poland look to play in the attacking phase of play, with Michniewicz opting for a style of play based on quick ball progression by playing it long towards a centre-forward or into the channels for the attackers to run onto, with the side ranking in the 63rd percentile in this metric. They are also not a high possession side, with Poland only ranking in the 12th percentile for possession %. Following are a couple of examples of Poland’s attacking style of play that we expect to see them utilise in the World Cup.
As we saw in the data metric above, Poland are not a high-possession side. They instead look to win possession back and then quickly attack, looking for space in behind the opposition’s defence, and playing long balls into these channels. An example of this is shown above from Poland’s recent UEFA Nations League match against Belgium.
In the phase of play above, notice how the player in possession has options to play the ball short and continue to build, notably a square ball to his direct right. However, with Belgium playing a back three, the wing-back on the far side is advanced and out of position as a result of the last Belgium attack. The Poland player then plays a long crossfield ball into the space on the opposite side of the field. This allows them to break the Belgian press, and attack quickly while their defence is not organized.
Above shows an even better example of Poland’s preferred route one style of attacking football. Preceding this image, the ball was played all the way back from the Belgian attacking third to Szcesęny in the Poland net. He then played the ball out wide to the defender, who was able to send a cross in behind the Belgian defence towards the forward running in behind. The ensuing long ball can find the forward running in behind the defender’s back shoulder. However, the shot is sent over the bar, but the movement and pass are, again, what Poland will look to produce plenty of during the World Cup.
Another thing to notice in this attacking phase from Poland is that all 10 outfield players are essentially beyond midfield and in the opposition’s half. While it is rare for them to send all of their outfield players forward, this allows Poland to overwhelm their opposition in the attacking half of the pitch. It also allows them to be prime targets to win either first or second balls when they are played long from the backline. As a side that is not possession-oriented, the ability to win these first and second balls is key to being able to attack successfully.
While they may be categorised as a long-ball team and not really possession-based, Poland are still capable of using quick passing sequences as a means of getting into the attacking half of the pitch. In the phase of play above, this is demonstrated. The goalkeeper plays the ball long into the wing-back. The defender can head the ball on first-time to the midfielder who is running unmarked in behind the Dutch fullback who is isolated in a 2v1. The flicked-on ball is played into the space for the midfielder to run onto and move into the attacking half, making it a 4v4 against the Dutch backline in a span of only three passes.
Though Poland will not be the most expansive team to watch from an attacking perspective at this winter’s World Cup, they will create chances. They also likely won’t create many per game, but all they may need is one to win if their defence can hold firm, which will be analysed in more detail next.
Defensive phase
When looking at the graphic above that shows how Poland’s defence ranks in different categories, a few things immediately stand out. Recoveries in their own third and shots against per match are the first two categories that people may look at. These high percentile rankings show that Poland are a team that will drop back and sit in a defensive block most times.
Their high PPDA, in the 66th percentile, also indicates that they don’t tend to press very high up the pitch. With that said, Poland will adapt their game plan defensively to whatever it may call for. Following are some examples of Poland in the defensive phase.
The image above shows Poland’s defensive shape and shows why they rank highly in blocked shots and recoveries in their own third. In their back-three system, they defend in a back five, with it turning into a 5-3-2 defensively. Notice how eight outfield players are behind the ball with the midfield and defensive lines staying tight and compact, not allowing much space at all centrally. Poland allows the space out wide for teams to attack them, but can stay tight and compact to not allow the play to get moved centrally.
That is exactly what happens in the defensive phase shown above, as Belgium are unable to move the ball centrally as a result of Poland’s defensive numbers in this area. Due to this, the ball is closed down by the Polish defenders in the wide area and they can eliminate the Belgian attack.
The defensive phase of play above shows another tactic that Poland tends to do when they are in a low defensive block. After they force the play into the wide channel, the wing-back, along with the ball side midfielder, look to close down the player in possession, with them looking to win back possession or force them to play backwards.
In this example, the Wales winger is forced to play the ball backwards, allowing the Polish defence to relieve some pressure. Notice also how Poland have numbers back in the box defensively, and because they are strong in the air, they would consider themselves favourites to be able to clear the ball away from danger if a cross were to have been sent into the box.
This final example also shows Poland looking to double up against the player in possession out wide. Once again, the Dutch player is forced to play the ball backwards, as there are no options for him to play forward to in advanced positions. With the Polish defence forcing the Dutch to play the ball backwards, it once again allows them to reset defensively.
As this section has illustrated, Poland are a team that prefers to sit back in a low block and absorb pressure when they lose possession. However, with that being said, don’t expect Poland to just sit back in a low block defensively at all times; they may alter their defensive tactics at times based on the opposition.
Transitions
With Poland not being a possession-oriented side under Michniewicz, transitional moments are some of the most dangerous attacking moments for the team. The image above shows a good example of exactly what Michniewicz’s side is capable of when regaining possession in vulnerable areas for the opposition. After Belgium lost possession in Poland’s final third, the Polish players were able to break quickly on a counterattack as a result of Belgium pushing a lot of their numbers forward. Seven of Poland’s outfield players can break, allowing them to possibly engage in a quick attacking move.
The image above shows another example of Poland attacking quickly as a result of a turnover by the opposition in a dangerous area. After the ball is turned over by the Netherlands, Poland can quickly counter to try and create a goalscoring opportunity. In this phase of play above, the Dutch full-back is caught out of possession, allowing for the ball to be played into the wide channel and behind the Dutch centre-backs.
Poland will be dangerous in transitional moments, so this will be something that other sides need to watch out for come World Cup time.
Attackers
When looking at the forward group that Poland possesses, all eyes immediately turn to record goalscorer Robert Lewandowski. The Barcelona forward is by far the biggest goalscoring threat for his side, with Poland being heavily reliant on him being able to put the ball in the net. Goals in general will be where Michniewicz hopes his forwards can contribute, with Poland’s style of play favouring playing the ball behind the backline for the forwards to try and score.
So far this season, between all of Poland’s forwards who will be in their predicted squad, they have scored 32 goals for their clubs, and the manager will hope that this goalscoring form can transfer to the World Cup come the end of November. They also are all decent passers of the ball, with the numbers being decent concerning their ball progression. For Swiderski, his pass accuracy for this season between club and country is 75.7%, Milik — 82.8%, Piątek — 79.5%, and Lewandowski — 79.2%.
Midfielders
With Poland’s style of play being long balls and quick passing movements in behind to try and catch the opposition’s back line out, the long passing ability of the central and wide midfielders will be key for this strategy to pay dividends. Starting with Sebastian Szymański, for club and country this season, his long passing accuracy sits at 59%, Linetty at 54.6%, Zieliński at 61.5%, Krychowiak at 61.3%, Matty Cash at 40.8%, Frankowski at 49.4%, and finally Zalewski at 42.2%.
While some of these numbers may not seem impressive, if Poland can complete over half of their long passes into the forwards during this World Cup, they will be able to create some good goalscoring chances. Another thing that will be key to chance creation for Poland is the ability of the advanced attacking midfielders to be able to play the ball into the forwards.
This is where looking at the final third passing accuracy of both Szymański and Zieliński could be crucial. The Napoli midfielder is averaging 7.97 passes to the final third per 90 minutes, with an accuracy of 83.8%. Szymański, on the other hand, averages only 2.67 per 90 minutes, with a success rate of 67.4%. If Poland want to be successful going forward, these are what the midfielders need to do well.
Defenders
As we looked at in the defensive phase section, Poland are a team that will sit in a low block at times and absorb pressure, aerial duels will become key to clear the ball away from danger so they can relieve some pressure. Jakub Kiwior has won 3.18 aerial duels per 90 so far this season between club and country, with a success rate of 56.6%. Glik sits at 4.51 aerial duels per 90, with a success rate of 59.7%. Wieteska averages 3.43 aerial duels per 90 with a success rate of 52.3%, and finally, Jan Bednarek averages 4.78 per 90 with a success rate of 59.9%. If Poland are to be successful defensively, then the centre-backs will need to come up big in the air.
Key player
When trying to find a key player for Poland, it is virtually impossible to look past Robert Lewandowski. The former Bayern Munich and current Barcelona striker is who Czesław Michniewicz and Poland will be relying on to score the goals, with Lewandowski the all-time top scorer for Poland at international level.
When glancing at the attacking metrics for the striker, it is easy to see why he is so prolific. He ranks way above the league median in almost all the key goalscoring metrics. In fact, the only two that he ranks below the league median in are percentage of offensive duels won and percentage of successful dribbles. This is because Lewandowski is not a striker that will take defenders on with the ball at his feet. This is not to say he won’t attempt to dribble at times, or take defenders on to win possession back, but with an xG of almost one goal every match, it is hard to not see Lewandowski scoring a few times during this tournament.
The Polish striker is also a relatively good passer of the ball, which is shown in the passing metrics section of the data viz above. The two that stand out the most are his key passes per 90 as well as his smart passes per 90. Lewandowski ranks in the upper percentiles for both of these statistics, showing that he will attempt to create chances for his teammates, and not just try to be the player on the end of them.
Another interesting one is his passes to the penalty area per 90 minutes, with his 1.82 ranking in the 75th percentile among forwards. What this can illustrate is Lewandowski’s ability to move outside the penalty box, normally dropping deeper to receive possession and help build up play.
When it comes to Lewandowski’s defensive metrics, not much really stands out on paper. His aerial duel success rate percentage is relatively high, however, with him ranking in the 75th percentile in this metric. All in all, Robert Lewandowski will have to play a large part should Poland progress far in this World Cup.
Tournament prediction
Poland have not had much success in their last two international tournaments. In both the 2018 World Cup and the 2020 European Championships, they were unable to progress past the group stages. For the manager, players, and fans, the goal should be to make it to the round of 16 or even the quarter-final stage, something that the country accomplished at the 2016 European championships.
The quarter-finals may be a step too far for Poland in this international tournament; the round of 16 however, should be the goal, with Poland in a group with Argentina, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia, one that realistically many expect them to be at least the second best in. Poland fans will be hoping their team could be a dark horse, and while this is very much possible, the round of 16 looks like it could be their ceiling this time around.
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