The 2022/23 Belgian Pro League season has been one of incredible entertainment so far, and there is still half of the season to go. From looking at the title race to the relegation battle, to all the coaching changes that have occurred since the World Cup began, this tactical analysis will break everything down in detail. It will also be a preview of the second half of the season, looking ahead to what will surely be a race to the finish line in both the title race and which teams get relegated, with three teams automatically going down this season.
Looking at the title race
When taking a look at the title race in Belgium, the first thing to notice is that KRC Genk currently sit on 46 points, 10 points clear of second-placed Union Saint-Gilloise. This comes after a blistering start to the season for Wouter Vrancken’s side, who only have one loss from their first 17 matches of the season. This form has led Genk to give Vrancken a new contract, only six months after him joining the club from fellow Pro League side Mechelen.
A lot of these results for Genk can go down to the success of their attacking players, with Genk being the top scorers in the league. This is even more astonishing when factoring in that Junya Ito was sold to Reims in the summer, who had 8 goals and 15 assists for the Belgian side last season. Paul Onuacho has returned to his best form, with the Nigerian striker having scored 13 goals in 14 appearances so far this season.
The biggest impacts however have come from Joseph Paintsil and Mike Tresor. The former has 6 goals and 8 assists this season after replacing the departed Ito in the lineup. Tresor however, has been on a different level this season, with 5 goals and 13 assists so far.
As the xG data viz shows above, Genk have slightly overperformed their xG this season, but the majority of their goals have come from areas where they should be scoring. So while it may not stay at this pace in the second half of the season, they will still be dangerous going forward.
In second place sit Union Saint-Gilloise, who, a year on from almost doing the unthinkable and winning the league the season they were promoted, have kept pace nicely. After losing their manager Felice Mazzu in the summer to Brussels rivals Anderlecht, they looked in-house for their next manager, replacing him with Mazzu’s former assistant Karel Gerarts. This has worked wonders, with the Belgian guiding USG to the knockout stages of the UEFA Europa League by winning their group this fall.
The side have been pretty similar to the one that was the surprise of Belgium last season, with the most notable departure being Deniz Undav who left to join Brighton in the summer. His replacement was Nigerian forward Victor Boniface, who has slotted in nicely partnering Dante Vanzeir up top.
The star player for USG this season has been Malta international midfielder Teddy Teuma. The midfielder has been the midfield general for the Belgian side this season, as the touch map above shows. He has been their most influential player, and this will have to continue if they want to keep pace with Genk.
Looking at third and fourth place, we have Royal Antwerp and Club Brugge. After a perfect start to the season, winning seven straight matches, they have been in poor form under former Bayern Munich and Barcelona striker Mark van Bommel, winning only once in their last five matches before the World Cup break.
Though Club Brugge sit in fourth place, 13 points behind leaders Genk, last season’s champions have done well under newly appointed manager Carl Hoefkens. In fact, the Belgian side finished second in their Champions League group behind FC Porto, qualifying for the knockout stages for the first time ever, being only the second team to achieve this feat along with KAA Gent.
This will be a title race to surely tune into come the return of the Belgian Pro League, with all four teams still in with a shot at title glory. This is especially true when realising that the title will be decided in a four-team Championship playoff at the end of the regular season. While Genk surely are favourites if they keep up this current form, USG, Royal Antwerp, and Club Brugge are all in with a shout at claiming the title. It is even possible the Gent could get involved in this title race, assuming one of these teams slips up down the final stretch.
Relegation battle
With the number of teams in the Belgian Pro League changing from next season onwards, the second half of this season in particular is crucial for teams near the bottom. In previous seasons, the last-placed team in Belgium would be automatically relegated, while the team finishing second from bottom would go into a promotion/relegation playoff. However, from the 2023/24 season onwards, only 16 teams will be competing in the top tier of Belgium, so this season, three teams are automatically relegated at the end. In the future, two will be automatically relegated, with one going into a promotion/relegation playoff.
Looking at the table at the current moment, the three teams stuck at the bottom all have some work to do if they want to climb out of danger by the end of the season. RFC Seraing currently sit bottom on 11 points, five from safety. Kortrijk sit 17th on 12 points, four from safety. Finally, Zulte-Waregem are on 13 points, three from safety. The teams directly above them are not safe either, with a few teams still in with a chance to be relegated come the end of the season. However, for time purposes, we will look at only the three sitting in the relegation zone in more detail.
As previously mentioned, RFC Seraing sit bottom, looking up at everyone ahead of them. The side from Liège just avoided relegation last season, after winning the promotion/relegation playoff against RWD Molenbeek. While goal scoring has been a problem for Seraing this season (second lowest number of goals scored), another problem has been progressing the ball into the dangerous areas while in the attacking third.
The data viz above shows the ball progression of Seraing from the Belgian Pro League so far this season. This is able to highlight the troubles that they are having this season in and around the opposition’s penalty box. They are largely unsuccessful when it comes to completing take-ons against opposition defenders 1v1, eliminating the ability for them to get into prime goal-scoring opportunities inside the penalty box. With some adjustments for the second half of the season, it is possible Seraing could stay up, but they need results, and fast.
Next up is Kortrijk, with the club sitting second from bottom and already on their third manager of the season. Kortrijk have scored the lowest number of goals in the league so far this season, with this being the main reason they have not had a good first half of the season at all. This goal-scoring will need a marked improvement if they are to survive this season.
Judging by Kortrijk’s xG map shown above, they have been rather unlucky at times in front of goal. As the data viz above shows, they are actually underperforming their xG, only scoring 13 goals on 18.93 xG. Whether this goes down to them going against great goalkeeping performances, or just being poor at converting their chances in front of goal, those six goals could have been crucial to adding more points to the board for Kortrijk. If they can improve in front of goal in the second half of this season, then Kortrijk have every possible chance of staying up.
Finally, we will take a look at Zulte-Waregem, who sit just inside the relegation zone and three points from safety. The Pro League side are managed by former player Mbaye Leye, who is in his second managerial job after managing Standard Liège from 2020/21. Goal-scoring has not really been the problem for Zulte this season, with their 23 goals scored this season being actually middle of the road for the Belgian league. The problem is defensively, with their 40 goals conceded being the most in the division this season so far.
Zulte’s form picked up slightly but finished their last five matches before the World Cup break with only one win. There were question marks on Mbaye Leye’s future, but an upturn in results kept him in the job. Zulte look best positioned to possibly escape this relegation battle but need to pick up results and hope the teams above them continue to slip up.
Managerial changes
The final thing that will be examined in this preview piece for the second half of the Belgian Pro League season are the managerial changes that occurred either right before the World Cup break, or during it. With the way the relegation structure is working this season, some teams pulled the trigger on manager changes sooner, not wanting to put it to chance when their form suffered.
Brian Riemer – Anderlecht
The first managerial change we will examine is the appointment of Brian Riemer at Brussels powerhouse Anderlecht, replacing Felice Mazzu, who was sacked after a poor start to the season that has the former champions currently sitting in 11th place. The Danish manager joins after being Thomas Frank’s assistant at Brentford for the past four seasons.
This is Riemer’s first full-time managerial job, with his only other managerial experience coming over two spells in charge of the FC Copenhagen U19 side. He also was the assistant manager of the senior squad at FC Copenhagen for three seasons from 2012-15. With no prior first-team managerial experience, this will not be an easy feat for Riemer, who is now tasked with attempting to restore the club back to its former title-winning glory, something that not even former Anderlecht legend and Manchester City captain Vincent Kompany could do.
Felice Mazzù – Charleroi
In what could be viewed as possibly the best managerial change in the Belgian Pro League recently, Felice Mazzù has returned to Charleroi after being sacked by Anderlecht, replacing Edward Still after he was sacked by the Belgian side. Mazzù is one of the most highly regarded former Charleroi managers in their history, with the Belgian managing the side for six seasons, from 2013-19, having great success with the club.
The question is whether or not Mazzù can accomplish with Charleroi in his second spell what he accomplished with Union Saint-Gilloise in his two seasons there. The Belgian won the Belgian second division, and almost won the Pro League title with USG last season, guiding them into Europe in their first season back in the top flight. With him now in charge, Charleroi will likely move up the table, and while challenging for European spots may be a stretch, it could very well be possible.
Edward Still – KAS Eupen
After getting replaced by Felice Mazzù at Charleroi, Still was quickly able to find his next job, taking over the manager role at Eupen after they parted ways with Bernd Storck. Still had a mixed time at Charleroi, and even though he guided the club into the European playoffs last season, he had a rough start to proceedings this campaign.
He now comes into an Eupen side who are struggling heavily this season after just avoiding relegation last season. The club currently sit in 15th place in the table, only three points above the relegation zone. The only goal for Still for the second half of this season should be to achieve survival, and hope that he can get the club kicked on correctly for the start of next season.
Bernd Storck – Kortrijk
Finally, next up is Kortrijk, with German manager Bernd Storck coming in to replace the sacked Adnan Custović. Storck comes in after managing both Genk and Eupen in Belgium previously, with his goal being to keep Kortrijk up this season. After an ill-fated spell in charge for Custović, he leaves the club in the bottom three with the least amount of goals scored this season. Storck will be tasked with fixing the attacking side of their game as well, which needs marked improvement in the second half if they are to stay up.
Conclusion
This piece was not technically a true tactical analysis or scout report, rather, it was a preview piece looking at the different things to look out for come the second half of the Belgian Pro League season. All three things that were examined in this article: the title race, the relegation battle, and the manager changes, (with changes in tactics for side), will all be key to watch come December 22nd when the Pro League resumes.
Comments