In 2019, Italy qualified for their first-ever FIFA Women’s World Cup, reaching the quarter-final of the competition which was quite a respectable result for the debutants.
Milena Bertolini’s side followed this up with a second-consecutive qualification to the esteemed international competition, losing just one group game from 10 while winning nine against the likes of Switzerland, Romania and Croatia.
Heading into the European Championships last summer, the Azzurre were heavy underdogs but were drawn into a relatively favourable group with Iceland, Belgium and France. Alongside the rise of calcio femmenille in the country, the hopes at home were that Italy would at least qualify for the knockout rounds. Unfortunately, it wasn’t to be as the 2022 Algarve Cup finalists picked up merely one point from their three games.
However, Bertolini’s ladies have another chance to prove their worth among the world’s best and will undoubtedly be hoping to at least replicate their success of 2019 by getting out of the groups.
Drawn into Group G with Argentina, Sweden and South Africa — Italy have been handed the perfect opportunity to do just that.
Since the Euros, Bertolini has kept the main principles of the side the same but has made certain tactical tweaks to improve their chances of having longevity in the tournament.
After three Italian teams lost in the men’s European finals while the men’s national team failed to qualify for the recent Qatar World Cup, the weight of the country’s reputation now lands firmly on the shoulders of Bertolini’s stars.
This tactical analysis piece will be a team scout report of the Italian women’s national team ahead of the 2023 WWC, where we will analyse the tactics that can be expected from the Azzurre.
Predicted Starting XI
Predicting Italy’s most probable starting XI for the Women’s World Cup was an incredibly difficult task so we can only imagine how Bertolini is feeling right now.
We have also decided to line the Azzurre up in a 4-3-3, although there is a possibility that the head coach deploys a 4-2-3-1, particularly against stronger opponents where Italy will be expected to have less of the ball.
Laura Giuliani will be the woman between the sticks. After a solid season with AC Milan, it is unlikely that the 30-year-old will be displaced in the Italian side. Nevertheless, the back four in front of Giuliani may not be as set in stone.
Elisa Bartoli will be starting at the back. The manager has relied on the Roma defender’s experience in recent years and this summer will be no different. Beside her, we’ve gone for Martina Lenzini to have a mix of youth and experience.
On the flanks, we feel as though Lisa Boattin and Valentina Bergamaschi are the best options given both are comfortable receiving in inside channels and are solid defensively but can also contribute in the final third with crosses from out wide. Bergamaschi can play further ahead as a winger too, so this is a possibility for the head coach.
Manuela Giugliano will play ahead of the back four, screening the space behind the opposition’s first line of pressure and acting as the final line of defence before the ball reaches the backline. She is undoubtedly one of the most important players in the team and so failing to select her would be remiss.
Ahead of Giugliano, we believe that Aurora Galli and Arianna Caruso offer the perfect balance to complete the midfield. Galli is an all-rounded player and can contribute at both ends of the pitch, whereas Caruso is more slightly attack-minded and is a wonderful playmaker but can also contribute defensively. You’ll struggle to find a midfield with greater balance than Italy’s at the World Cup.
In the final third, we’ve gone with Sofia Cantore on the right wing and Barbara Bonansea on the opposite side. Cantore can play centrally and so is more goal-oriented while the experienced Bonansea brings a more creative element to the forward line.
The number ‘9’ slot was the hardest to pick. Between Cristiana Girelli, Valentina Giacinti and Martina Piemonte, Bertolini has several excellent options to fulfil the striker role. However, Piemonte stands above the rest, in our humble opinion. The Milan centre-forward has speed, agility, incredible movement and a superb ability to finish off chances which will be needed if Italy are to go far in this tournament.
We must put a disclaimer out that Bertolini has not even released her provisional squad as of writing this scout report and so we’ve used as many resources as possible to predict the entire squad.
From our prediction, Italy’s squad at the World Cup will be quite young which is wholly different to her choice to bring many experienced players to Euro 2022.
Due to the failures from last year, the manager wants more vibrancy and to play on the front foot as opposed to relying on players who are far past their prime.
Attacking Phase
A lot of similarities can be drawn between Bertolini’s side and Roberto Mancini’s Italy, particularly the Italian side that won Euro 2020 two years ago.
Both teams play in a similar shape. Bertolini has preferred to use the 4-3-3 for the most part; although, as previously discussed, there has been a lot of experimentation from the head coach over the past few matches, particularly in friendly games.
Both sides want to have the ball and build their way through the thirds of the pitch, hence why Italy Women have averaged 55% possession per 90 over the course of the past calendar year. In turn, this means that Bertolini wants her team to play out from the back, trying to beat the opposition’s press by playing on the deck rather than pumping it long over the press.
In the past, Italy have set up in a 4-1 build-up structure, keeping the full-backs close to the centre-backs while the single-pivot in Bertolini’s 4-3-3 operated behind the opposition’s first line of pressure.
This has changed slightly. Building up with just one pivot player meant that Italy had to build out to the wide areas quite often when the number ‘6’ was marked and the passing lane was blocked off.
Now, Italy tend to use a 4-2 build-up shape, keeping an extra midfielder behind the first line of pressure and making it a little easier for the team to play through the central areas without having to constantly rely on the full-backs to play down the line to the near-side winger to do so.
The 4-2-3-1 naturally facilitates having this double-pivot behind the opposition’s first defensive line. However, in cases where the Azzurre deploy a 4-3-3, one of the advanced ‘8s’ will drop short to help build up the play.
From this passing network, we can see Italy’s 4-3-3 practically becoming a 4-2-3-1 in possession. Italy did set up in a 4-3-3 during this game, but when building play out from the back, Matilde Pavan (#14) would drop deep alongside the single pivot, Manuela Giugliano (#6), while Arianna Caruso (#18) positioned herself higher up the pitch than her midfield counterparts.
Having an extra player in the build-up gives Italy seven outfield players in their own third, including the goalkeeper. This means that the opposition have to commit an extra body when pressing to deal with the additional player. In turn, there is less protection for the backline if the press is broken.
Here, England have committed six bodies in their 4-3-3 high block, the midfield four and the two-player first line of pressure. Italy have a 7v6 overload with the goalkeeper, giving them numerical superiority while also going 4v4 against the Lionesses’ backline.
Further up the pitch, the shape moves away from resembling a set formation as most modern-day positional attacks do. The team’s positional attacking structure changes on the personnel that Bertolini has available to her. But for the most part, Italy use a back three when attempting to break down a deep block.
This is achieved by having one of the full-backs tuck inside while the other advances forward to create a 3v2 against the opponent’s frontline.
Here, the left-back has positioned herself as a left centre-back alongside the two natural central defenders. Meanwhile, the right-back has pushed high on the right flank, allowing the winger on that side to move into the halfspace and play as an inverted wide player.
On the opposite side, things are a little different. Since the left-back is in an inside position, the left-winger must hold the width on the left flank to ensure there are two width-holders stretching the opposition’s block horizontally to open up gaps in the midfield.
Bertolini prefers to have a natural winger like Annamaria Serturini on this side who can comfortably take on the opponent’s full-back and put crosses into the box if Italy have to play wide when the defending team are too compact centrally.
But it doesn’t always look like this. Sometimes, the head coach utilises Barbara Bonansea, who is a more creative player and prefers to play in the half-spaces in little pockets to receive and create, on the left. When the 32-year-old is in the team, Bertolini instructs the left-back to overlap while the right-back tucks inside to create the back three instead.
But the objective of Italy is not to constantly create chances by using the wide areas. Bertolini packs the advanced central areas with as many players as possible to try and play centrally with combinations. The reason for this is that chances formed from the central corridors are higher percentage opportunities than those created out wide.
To do so, Italy keep one midfielder in the deeper areas of the pitch in front of their auxiliary back three. Doing so, the Italians have a 3-1 base in their positional attacking structure. This pivot player must be comfortable receiving the ball with her back to goal and under pressure while also possessing the ability to move the ball quickly to keep the play ticking. Guigliano fills this slot seamlessly due to her technical skills.
Further up the pitch, the remaining midfielders, the centre-forward and the inverted winger position themselves between the lines to receive the ball in space before trying to combine with one another to break down the block centrally.
Nonetheless, Italy can also be dangerous from the wide areas. If the opposition are too compact and a route to the central players is not available, the Azzurre have no problem playing out wide to their width-holders to put crosses into the box.
The players who are between the lines then dart towards the penalty area to get on the end of a cross and so there are always plenty of bodies to aim for.
This is exactly how Italy opened the scoring against the Korean Republic during their clash in the Arnold Clark Cup, with Caruso latching onto the end of Serturini’s deflected cross.
Italy are unpredictable in this respect. They can create chances from the central corridors as well as from the wide areas, making them a threat from everywhere in the final third. Added to this the goalscoring prowess of the likes of Martina Piemonte, Valentina Giacinti, Cristiana Girelli or whomever else may play up top, the Italians are a force to be reckoned with.
Proving this, throughout the Arnold Clark Cup and the WWC qualifying, Italy outperformed their 31.57 non-penalty xG by bagging 36 non-penalty goals.
Opposition defences will find it quite difficult to keep the Azzurre defence quiet if they are all on form.
Defensive Phase
While Italy are an exciting attacking side, the area they perhaps struggle the most is defensively. Bertolini’s team have conceded 1.29 goals per game in all competitions, including friendlies, over the past calendar year from an xGA per 90 of 1.99 which is really high for a team that is preparing to face some of the best sides in the world.
But we won’t begin this section with the negatives. Instead, let’s look at an overall analysis of Italy’s defensive tactics.
There is nothing innovative about Italy’s defensive set-up, but there doesn’t need to be. Depending on whether the team deploys a 4-3-3 or a 4-4-2, they will either press in a 4-1-4-1 or a 4-4-2 shape.
We have provided two examples of Italy pressing in two different formations higher up the pitch. The instructions from Bertolini remain the same. The manager wants her striker or front two to force the opposition’s centre-backs to one side of the pitch by curving their runs to ensure that the passing lane to the centre-back without the ball is covered, cutting off one horizontal half of the pitch.
From there, the opponent will play out to the flanks as there are no other options available, providing the central areas have been closed off too by the midfielders.
Once the ball is moved out wide, Italy go man-for-man on the flanks, pressing aggressively to win possession back as soon as possible by using the touchline as an extra defender.
Bertolini wants to keep the opposition boxed in and to have them as far away from the Italian goal as possible. This is normally called ‘defending from the front’.
For the most part, Italy’s defensive line is parked on the halfway line which is evident from the team’s defensive territory map.
From this data viz, we can also see just how many ball recoveries and defensive actions occur in the higher wide areas of the pitch which is where Italy’s press does the most damage.
The Azzurre’s Passes allowed Per Defensive Action rate over the past calendar year is 8.32 which is really low. Essentially, Italy are allowing the opposition to play less than nine passes on average before intervening with a defensive action. Across their last five outings, 17% of the side’s ball recoveries were in the opposition’s final third which is an excellent return.
Once the high press is broken, Bertolini’s team drop off in a compact mid-block, whether it be a 4-5-1 mid-block or a 4-4-2 mid-block.
Against better opposition, the head coach has preferred to utilise the 4-4-2, putting Giugliano in the ‘10’ position out of possession due to her defensive qualities. The Roma midfielder has plenty of energy and is used alongside the number ‘9’ to block passes into the opposition’s pivot and to press the centre-backs. The best example of this was Italy’s 2-1 defeat against England in the Arnold Clark Cup.
However, this actually caused the Italians a lot of problems against England since Giugliano’s defensive qualities were not being used lower down the pitch to mark the opposition’s advanced central midfielders.
In the loss to the European champions, England were constantly able to progress through the central areas when one of the number ‘8s’ would drop short to receive as the double-pivot were not spotting these late movements that Giugliano would have noticed had she been playing in a deeper defensive role.
Ahead of the WWC, it will be interesting to see whether Bertolini sticks with the idea of using Giugliano in a more pressing role in the first line of pressure alongside the centre-forward. The experiment hasn’t really worked so far and so it would perhaps be far more beneficial to deploy a 4-3-3 with the 25-year-old operating in front of the backline, picking up any floating players between the lines that are looking to receive to feet.
Transitions
One of the main reasons Italy concede so many chances is due to their struggles in defensive transition. As the team play so high up the pitch, if their counterpressing efforts fail, it can be really easy for the opposition to play directly behind the Italian defence.
Of course, this is the risk when playing with a high line. Italy’s available centre-backs are all relatively quick but when faced with a rapid striker, the high line has caused them problems.
Here, Italy lost possession higher up the pitch against Belgium. The game had almost reached its conclusion and so the Azzurre were feeling the effects of tiredness. Belgium regained possession and played a scintillating through ball in behind Italy’s defensive high line with which the centre-forward latched onto and stole the victory.
We’re not saying it would be best practice to stop playing such a high line. However, perhaps when the game reaches its latter stages, it would be wise if Bertolini instructed her defenders to drop off to avoid situations such as this from taking place.
On the flip side, Italy can be deadly from these very situations at the opposite end during the attacking transition phase.
Once the European side have won the ball in the defensive phase, Bertolini wants her attacking players to take advantage of the opposition’s high line and to run into exposed areas. The player who receives the ball initially while defending must play forward as quickly to give the opposition as little time to get bodies back as possible.
Here, Italy ripped Colombia to shreds with this transition which took mere seconds to complete. There were just two passes played before Giacinti used her speed to get in behind the Colombian backline and finish between the goalkeeper’s legs.
Opponents will need to be wary of Italy’s counterattacking threat ahead of the upcoming WWC.
Forwards
Italy’s attacking personnel are incredible. In the striker position, Bertolini can choose between Giacinti, Girelli, Piemonte as well as Cartone if necessary. If her number ‘9’ isn’t firing during a game, we can be certain that the manager will be quick to shake things up, bringing on another one of her many talented centre-forwards.
On the wings, players such as Annmaria Serturini and Barbara Bonansea offer a nice blend of having an out-and-out winger who can provide crosses from the wide areas, and a more creative player who can operate between the lines after drifting inside and create chances for the striker and opposite winger.
Midfielders
The midfield is perfectly balanced, as already mentioned in this piece. Using Giugliano, Galli and Caruso together would offer Italy a nice concoction of having excellent technical players, attacking flair, defensive nous, tactical intelligence and playmaking.
Whether Bertolini opts to play with a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3 will be vital to see this balance have a positive effect on the team. When using Giugliano in a more advanced position for pressing purposes, we believe it has a negative effect on the side’s overall play.
Having Giugliano sitting deeper, keeping play ticking, while Galli and Caruso execute box-to-box roles in front of her could be instrumental to whether Italy have a successful tournament or not, inside a 4-3-3 structure.
Defenders
There is a nice blend of youthfulness and experience in defence for Italy. Players like Bergamaschi, Lenzini and Boattin are fast and will be important for Bertolini’s high line in case the ball is played in behind.
However, the manager will also lean on the experience and leadership of Giuliani in goal and Bartoli at the back to keep things calm, especially since the rest of the squad is quite young.
Bertolini also has solid depth in this department too and can use the likes of Alice Tortelli, Angelica Soffia and Maria Luisa Filangeri if the starters either pick up an injury, need to be replaced in-game, or are not playing well.
Key Player
Picking Italy’s key player ahead of the Women’s World Cup certainly wasn’t easy. We could have gone with any of the spine really, including Giuliani, Bartoli, or Giugliano but have decided to choose the team’s focal point — the apex predator that they will rely on to score.
Piemonte isn’t going to offer much to Italy other than goals and being a focal point up top in case they need to play direct. The Italian striker is excellent in her aerial duels as the pizza chart has highlighted.
However, what we can also see is that she ranked really low against other Serie A strikers for touches in the opposition’s penalty area, yet was one of the highest-ranked players for goals, exceeding her expected goals contributions.
Piemonte doesn’t receive the ball very often in the box, but when she does, she is deadly. It’s this potency up front that will be the difference for Italy heading into the esteemed competition if the Azzurre want to perform well and reach the latter rounds of the contest.
Tournament Prediction
Italy are not one of the favourites heading into the Women’s World Cup this summer. There are far stronger squads flying out to compete but that doesn’t mean Italy can be underestimated.
Bertolini is constantly improving the team and has even tweaked her tactics to make them stronger and better in all phases, particularly in the attack.
Defensively, an improvement is needed but we believe that the team is strong enough to make it out of the group phase and, depending on who they might draw in the first knockout round, could replicate or even better their success in 2019.
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