The 2023 Allsvenskan season sees its finale take place tomorrow. Of course, it’s a league format without a ‘final’ in the traditional sense. However, we do have something of an epic clash between the two best teams to decide which team ends the campaign glorious, as league leaders Elfsborg (64 points, 34 goal difference) visit second-placed Malmö (61 points, 34 goal difference) in match week 30’s winner take all clash.
Indeed, Elfsborg could get away with drawing and remaining top of the table, so the ball is in their court in a sense. However, home advantage goes to Malmö; there really isn’t much to separate these two and the stage is set for an epic encounter.
Here at Total Football Analysis, we have covered both of these teams in some detail during the 2023 campaign, focusing on Henrik Rydström’s tactical switch to relationist principles in 2023 at Malmö and highlighting the effective transitional football on display at Elfsborg under Jimmy Thelin. For a more detailed look at both sides in a general sense, we’d recommend checking out those articles.
This tactical analysis aims to provide a more specific look at how two of Sweden’s elite football clubs will match up against one another on Sunday, pinpointing where this crucial game can be won and lost while giving an analysis of some key players and key tactics we’d expect to play a vital role in deciding which of these two teams will be lifting the trophy at the end of the game.
First blood Elfsborg
Before looking ahead to Sunday’s game, it makes sense to look back on these two sides’ previous Allsvenskan clash of 2023, a match that can provide us with some precious insight and background ahead of this upcoming encounter.
Malmö started this season on a hot streak, winning each of their first eight league games and going undefeated in their first nine. Their first loss came against — you guessed it — Elfsborg in their meeting at Borås Arena back in May. The hosts earned a 3-0 win in that fixture.
Though Elfsborg lost their opening game of the season to the same team that first prevented Malmö from getting all three points — third-placed BK Häcken — they did end up putting a superb run of their own together, going undefeated for 15 straight games from match week two to match week 16, winning 12 of them, this clash with Malmö included.
A poor day at the office for Malmö? Perhaps. They took seven more shots than Elfsborg but had a poor xG per shot of just 0.07, emphasising how Elfsborg successfully kept them out of dangerous areas, forcing their opponents to make their attempts from relatively poor positions.
Elfsborg, meanwhile, managed to generate some clear-cut opportunities; despite taking fewer shots in the end, they came out on top largely thanks to the quality of chances they enjoyed.
Elfsborg’s aggressive and organised pressing is primarily what won this game for them. It’s typical to find them pressing aggressively in a mid-high block with the aim of regaining the ball high and attacking the box directly after forcing the turnover.
In figure 2, after forcing the opposition out wide in the build-up and trapping them there next to the sideline, Malmö have nowhere to go but backwards.
This acts as a pressing trigger, with Elfsborg’s centre-forward and left-winger springing into action to close the receiver down.
A heavy touch from the centre-back while trying to control the backpass allows Elfsborg to steal on the edge of the box, and the result is a goal.
Another example from just slightly later in the game sees another Malmö backpass get pressed aggressively, leading to a rushed pass from the left centre-back to the left-back, which is intercepted and allows Elfsborg’s right-winger to carry into a decent shooting position, from where he sends the ball just wide of the goal.
As the game wore on, we saw Malmö commit more numbers forward. They normally build with a 3-2 base, but chasing this game, they converted to a 3-1 base, committing an extra body forward just behind the centre-forward.
Note how five distinct lanes are occupied across the width of the pitch by Malmö above — this is typical in their game and something Rydström evidently encourages. However, we frequently see many rotations in which player occupies which lane, creating variation in the threat posed to the opponent.
Down and desperate against Thelin’s side, they threw one more ingredient into that attacking mix to try and break the solid defensive force that was Elfsborg’s out-of-possession setup — a mid-low 4-4-2 in this case.
As they committed bodies forward in search of a way back into the game, Malmö left themselves more open and vulnerable on the counter.
Elfsborg took advantage of this, escaping Malmö’s aggressive counterpress, finding some space in the centre to run at their exposed backline and managing to get into the box where they could drive the ball across the face of goal into the six-yard box where a yellow shirt was there to make the necessary connection and send the ball into the net.
All in all, Elfsborg’s defensive organisation naturally frustrated Malmö, especially after they took the lead in this game at a time when Rydström’s side were not used to losing, and their counterattacking quality successfully punished the opponent time and time again.
Where Sunday’s game can be won for Malmö
While Elfsborg may take some psychological advantage into this game, given they can ‘win’ with a draw, they currently lead the league, and they won the previous encounter between the two teams, victory is still there for Malmö to take.
So, where can Malmö win the game?
Looking at Elfsborg’s‘ shots against’ map here in figure 6 provides an indication of where they’re more vulnerable, for starters — the right side of the pitch. They’ve conceded 17.72 xG from the right this term compared with 11.52 from the left.
Incidentally, one of Malmö’s absolute key creative outlets is Busanello, who frequently plays on the left. It’s common to see Busanello providing the width for his side in the progression and chance creation phases, from where he’s managed to generate 5.39 xA in 2023 — the most of any Malmö player and the most of any player primarily deployed on the left in the Allsvenskan for the 2023 campaign, per Wyscout.
Busanello is an asset for his side both in terms of directly creating chances and via his ability to generate final third entries, putting his team in more valuable positions through his progressive passing.
If he plays well on Sunday, expect to see him cause plenty of problems for Elfsborg on this side of the pitch, where Malmö will look to put together some intricate passing plays combined with intelligent movement and plenty of rotations to find little pockets of space to exploit and create from.
Sebastian Nanasi, 21 years old, has thrived within Rydström’s system this term. He’s a central midfielder who has grown into the system in a fantastic way, demonstrating an excellent ability to exploit space and interpret the situation presented to him to put himself in the best possible position to be a valuable asset for his side while rotating with teammates.
Again, he frequently finds himself operating on the left and is a crucial creative outlet for Malmö. However, he creates chances differently from Busanello. While the wide man primarily creates via his crossing, Nanasi is more prone to defence-splitting balls from more central positions.
Ultimately, we’d expect Malmö to pose a significant threat via the left half of the pitch in different ways in order to trouble Elfsborg in this high-stakes fixture.
Where Sunday’s game can be won for Elfsborg
Now, onto Elfsborg and what they can do to ensure they finish the job and remain atop the Allsvenskan when the final whistle of the season blows this weekend.
Where Busanello and Nanasi are vital components of Malmö’s chance creation, full-backs Johan Larsson (right) and Niklas Hult (left) carry a significant portion of the creative duties for their side, in addition to winger Jeppe Okkels.
Larsson’s main contribution to the creative process for Elfsborg lies in his set-piece delivery. The Elfsborg captain is a specialist from dead balls, and his side will look to use this ability to gain an edge on their opponents this Sunday — no doubt in combination with some intricate and carefully planned routines — as they have done throughout the campaign.
From open play, Elfsborg’s primary threat is also through the left side of the pitch, and we’d expect them to focus their attacks down that side of the pitch more than the right.
Hult is not the same level of creative force that Busanello has been for Malmö, but he remains a dangerous playmaker, accumulating the fourth-highest xA (2.51) of any Elfsborg player in 2023.
The 33-year-old varies his crossing significantly, switching things up between crossing earlier from deep and crossing from closer to the byline, where he can cut the ball back or drill it across goal. However, his two assists this term have come from his deeper crossing.
Meanwhile, Okkels has been Elfsborg’s primary creative outlet from open play, and, again, he also loves attacking down the left. He’s happy to stay wide on the left and receive out there with space ahead of him to accelerate and carry the ball inside. He likes being isolated 1v1 with a defender and mainly crosses from closer to goal, with plenty of low-driven balls into the box making an appearance this season.
Both of these players are effective in transition to attack, which is crucial for Elfsborg as they will spend a lot of time without the ball this Sunday, relying heavily on their pressing as a playmaker just as they did in the reverse fixture and their ability to hit Malmö on the break.
While Malmö are Allsvenskan’s most heavily possession-based side (61.4%), Elfsborg have kept just 47.9% of the ball, on average, this term.
Expect to see Elfsborg pressing aggressively at coordinated moments as they react to certain pressing triggers they’ll have prepared to try and force high-mid turnovers so they can quickly attack Malmö’s vulnerable defence on the counter.
Additionally, regardless of whether it’s pressing or counterpressing, Malmö’s central midfielders have the freedom to push up, support their forwards and close down the opposition’s deeper midfielders, as we see here from Malmö’s clash with BK Häcken last week.
Like Elfsborg, Malmö want to win the ball high, which can help them achieve this. However, if the pressure on the ball carrier isn’t aggressive enough, this can allow the opponent to exploit the space that opens between the midfield and defensive lines.
We saw one example of how Elfsborg can exploit this in their counterattack goal from the reverse fixture highlighted in figure 5. At the same time, Häcken also exploited this at times last week, so it’s undoubtedly an area for Elfsborg to bear in mind as they prepare for Sunday’s major fixture.
Conclusion
To conclude this tactical analysis and match preview of Sunday’s big Allsvenskan showdown, this game will be a major clash of styles with high stakes hanging over it, which should deliver a fascinating tactical battle.
Indeed, we feel Elfsborg have a bit of a psychological edge in several respects coming into the game, but, at the same time, an early goal for Malmö would drastically alter those dynamics so that psychological edge is only worth as much as they can use it to their advantage, which remains to be seen.
Malmö’s relationism versus Elfsborg’s transitional game should make for some box office football this Sunday as the teams battle it out for the crown of 2023 Swedish champions.
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