As the 2023/2024 Bundesliga season comes to a close, Borussia Dortmund find themselves at a critical juncture.
Despite an impressive run to the UEFA Champions League Final, the club only managed to secure a fifth-place finish in the Bundesliga, marking a frustrating and inconsistent campaign. From a recruitment analysis perspective, Dortmund’s strategy must address several key areas.
The departure of experienced players like Reus and Hummels leaves a void in leadership and stability, necessitating the acquisition of both seasoned professionals and young talents who can adapt to Dortmund‘s high-intensity, fast-paced playing style.
The focus of this analysis will be on using data and statistics to put ourselves in sporting director Sebastian Kehl’s shoes and find players who can contribute to a balanced and dynamic midfield, a resilient defence, and a potent attack.
Additionally, integrating new signings seamlessly into the squad’s existing tactics will be crucial for maintaining cohesion and consistency.
By examining the team’s current tactical setup and identifying areas for improvement, this recruitment analysis aims to provide insights into how Dortmund can optimize their roster for the 2024/2025 season, ensuring they remain competitive in the Bundesliga and continue to make significant strides in European football.
Methodology
To ensure a strategic and effective rebuild for Borussia Dortmund, we employ a meticulous methodology that focuses on identifying and recruiting the most suitable candidates to strengthen the squad.
Our approach is grounded in comprehensive analysis, leveraging data to pinpoint areas in need of reinforcement.
Here’s how we systematically filter and select potential recruits for the upcoming summer transfer window:
With key departures like Marco Reus and Mats Hummels anticipated, our focus extends to filling these leadership and skill gaps.
Additionally, we consider players from Dortmund’s renowned academy who are ready to step up to the first team, ensuring a balance between experienced recruits and homegrown talent.
We begin with a starting transfer budget of €40m, which has the potential to increase to up to €100m through player sales.
To maximize the efficiency and success of our recruitment process, we utilize our proprietary xGold tool.
This advanced tool filters players based on their similarity to existing squad members, thereby increasing the likelihood of seamless integration and positive impact.
xGold analyzes various attributes, such as playing style, tactical fit, and statistical performance, to generate a list of candidates who align with Dortmund’s strategic objectives.
This ensures that each potential recruit not only meets the technical and tactical requirements but also enhances the overall team dynamics and performance.
By following this rigorous methodology, we aim to assemble a Dortmund squad capable of competing at the highest levels of domestic and European football, setting the stage for a successful 2024/2025 season.
Areas to strengthen
In this summer transfer window, Borussia Dortmund must prioritize addressing long-standing problem areas to prepare for a title challenge.
The most critical positions requiring reinforcement are centre-back, left-back, and defensive midfield.
From an external perspective, the improvements under assistant coach Nuri Şahin’s influence since winter have been notable, with various processes and tactical elements showing positive change since his involvement.
If Şahin is indeed the driving force behind these improvements, it would be wise for the club to grant him more influence in shaping the squad and strategy.
Meanwhile, head coach Edin Terzić, having led the team to the UEFA Champions League final, seems secure in his position for now.
According to media reports, the club’s transfer budget is approximately €40m, excluding potential income from player sales.
With expected departures, this budget could increase to between €100-125m.
This substantial financial flexibility will allow Dortmund to make significant investments in these critical positions, aiming to eliminate weaknesses and build a squad capable of competing for top honours in the Bundesliga and beyond.
Outgoing Transfers (for free)
This summer, Borussia Dortmund will witness the departure of several key players as free agents, marking the end of an era for some long-serving members of the squad.
First and foremost, Marco Reus, the club captain and talisman for over a decade, will be leaving.
Reus has been synonymous with Dortmund’s identity, embodying the club’s spirit both on and off the pitch.
His departure will leave a significant void in terms of his on-field contributions, leadership, and experience.
Mateu Morey, another defensive asset, will depart as well.
Morey’s potential was clear, but his time at Dortmund was marred by injuries.
His exit opens up a need for reinforcement in the full-back position.
Marius Wolf, known for his versatility and work ethic, will also be leaving.
Wolf’s ability to play in multiple positions across the midfield and defence made him a valuable squad player.
His departure will necessitate finding a player who can offer similar flexibility and reliability.
Defensive stalwarts Antonios Papadopoulos and Mats Hummels are also set to exit.
Papadopoulos, a versatile defender, provided depth to the squad, while Hummels, a cornerstone of Dortmund’s defence, brought immense experience and tactical acumen.
Hummels’ second stint with the club saw him add stability to the backline, and his absence will be keenly felt.
These exits as free agents signify a significant transition period for Borussia Dortmund.
The club will need to strategically replace these players to maintain competitiveness and ensure the squad’s strength moving forward.
Potential Outgoing Transfers (for transfer fee)
Several other players are likely to leave the club for transfer fees, signalling a significant reshuffle within the squad.
This move aims to address current shortcomings and prepare the team for future success.
Since his arrival at Dortmund, Ramy Bensebaini has not lived up to expectations.
Initially brought in to strengthen the defensive line, Bensebaini has struggled to secure a regular spot and justify his salary.
With his performances failing to impress, he has become surplus to requirements.
Offloading him for a transfer fee between €3-8m would be a move towards damage control and better financial management.
His departure is seen as necessary to free up resources and make room for more impactful signings.
Soumaïla Coulibaly, who spent the last season out on loan, is another player expected to leave.
Despite showing promise, his future at Dortmund seems uncertain, and the club is likely to sell him for around €8-12m.
This sale would help recoup some of the investment made in him and provide funds for reinforcing other areas of the squad.
Coulibaly’s departure underscores Dortmund’s intent to refine their defensive options and invest in players who can immediately contribute to their tactical setup.
Dortmund faces a tough decision in midfield with the potential departure of either captain Emre Can or Salih Özcan.
Both players have shown moments of brilliance, but inconsistencies and the need for a more dynamic midfield presence might lead to one of them being sold.
Emre Can, with his versatility and experience, could fetch a considerable fee, while Salih Özcan’s profile might attract interest from German or Turkish clubs.
The club will likely consider offers in the range of €10-15m for Can and between 5 to 10 million for Özcan, using the proceeds to bring fresh talent that fits into their tactical plans.
Dortmund might part ways in the attacking department with either Donyell Malen or Karim Adeyemi.
Both players possess significant talent, but with similar playing styles, there might not be room for both in the squad.
Malen’s pace and dribbling have been valuable, yet his commitment in difficult times of the season has been a concern.
Adeyemi, on the other hand, offers explosiveness but has also struggled to make a consistent impact.
Selling one of them for a fee between €30-40m would provide substantial funds to invest in a more consistent goal scorer or a versatile forward that complements the remaining squad better.
Gio Reyna’s situation is one of unfulfilled potential.
Despite showing flashes of brilliance, Reyna has been plagued by injuries and inconsistency.
His absence has not been significantly felt, suggesting that the team can cope without him.
Selling him for around €15m could be a prudent move, allowing Dortmund to reinvest in a more impactful midfielder.
Reyna’s departure would mark the end of a chapter filled with hope but limited by circumstances, opening the door for new talent to take the stage.
Youssoufa Moukoko, a highly touted young talent, is currently struggling for game time.
At his age, regular minutes are crucial for development, and a loan move might not make sense given the club’s current dynamics.
Selling him for €25-30m would provide significant funds that could be reinvested into acquiring a proven striker or strengthening other critical positions.
Alternatively, Sébastien Haller’s future at the club is under scrutiny.
Despite showing glimpses of his potential, Haller has faced recurrent setbacks that have hindered his progress.
Although painful, letting him go for a fee between €5-10m might be necessary to create space for new attacking options.
Potential Incoming Transfers (for free)
As Borussia Dortmund gears up for the 2024/2025 season, a significant focus is on integrating fresh talent from their own academy into the first team.
This approach not only aligns with Dortmund’s tradition of nurturing young prospects but also offers a cost-effective solution to bolster the squad without incurring hefty transfer fees.
With a string of promising young players ready to make the leap, the summer could see the emergence of a new generation of stars at Signal Iduna Park.
Tom Rothe, a 19-year-old left-back, has already tasted senior football success during his loan spell at Holstein Kiel, where he played a pivotal role in their promotion to the first division.
Rothe’s defensive acumen and ability to contribute to attacks make him a well-rounded option for Dortmund’s left-back position, an area that has seen inconsistency in recent seasons.
Rothe’s experience in competitive matches and his proven track record of success at the youth and senior levels make him a valuable addition to Dortmund’s defensive lineup.
With Rothe’s return, Dortmund gains a player who is not only familiar with the club’s ethos but also ready to make an immediate impact in the Bundesliga, even if likely to start the season as a substitute player.
At just 18 years old, Kjell Wätjen has already established himself as a standout performer in Dortmund’s academy.
A central midfielder with an impressive blend of technical skill, vision, and tactical awareness, Wätjen is seen as a future linchpin in the team’s midfield.
His ability to dictate play, combined with a mature understanding of the game, makes him an ideal candidate to step up and fill the void that could be left by departing senior players.
He had already made his debut in the Bundesliga and had travelled with the squad to UEFA Champions League matches.
Paris Brunner, an 18-year-old centre-forward, is poised to become the next big thing in Dortmund’s attack.
A natural goal scorer with a keen eye for positioning and clinical finishing, Brunner has been a standout performer in the academy, consistently finding the back of the net against tough competition.
His physicality and poise in front of goal make him an exciting prospect for the first team.
Brunner’s inclusion in the senior squad would provide a much-needed boost to Dortmund’s striking options, especially with uncertainties surrounding the futures of current forwards like Moukoko.
Filippo Mané, a 19-year-old centre-back, represents another exciting prospect from Dortmund’s academy.
Known for his composure on the ball and defensive solidity, Mané has the attributes needed to seamlessly transition to senior football and become Hummels’ long-term successor.
His physical presence and ability to read the game make him a valuable asset in bolstering Dortmund’s defence, especially in light of potential departures in that area.
Having excelled in youth leagues, Mané is poised to bring a fresh energy to Dortmund’s backline.
His integration into the first team could provide much-needed competition and depth, particularly as the club looks to address defensive vulnerabilities that have plagued recent seasons.
Cole Campbell, an 18-year-old winger, is another academy gem ready to shine on the big stage.
Known for his blistering pace, agility, and creativity, Campbell has the potential to become a potential figure in Dortmund’s attacking setup.
Potential Incoming Transfers (for transfer fee)
With several high-profile departures expected, the club is looking to make strategic investments that align with their philosophy of blending youth with experience.
Below, we delve into the potential incoming transfers that could shape Dortmund’s squad for the 2024/2025 season.
Centre-Back #1 – Dean Huijsen
Dean Huijsen, a 19-year-old Dutch centre-back returning to Juventus from a loan spell at AS Roma, is a potential target for Dortmund.
His top-level performances in Serie A and familiarity with a German-speaking environment make him a promising candidate for Dortmund’s defence.
Huijsen’s style of play and development trajectory are reminiscent of a young Mats Hummels, offering a glimpse of his potential to become a key player for Dortmund.
Huijsen’s integration into Dortmund’s squad would add a young, dynamic element to the defence, ensuring that the team is well-equipped to handle the demands of top-level competition.
His potential to grow and develop into a top defender aligns with Dortmund’s philosophy of nurturing young talent, making him an ideal candidate for a summer transfer.
Centre-Back #2
Anthony Rouault, a 23-year-old French centre-back, has made a significant impact in his first season with VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga.
With Stuttgart having an obligation to buy him from Toulouse for €3 million, Rouault’s market value has already increased to €7 million, reflecting his potential and impressive performances.
Rouault’s strong defensive capabilities and solid performances in the Bundesliga make him an ideal candidate for Dortmund’s defence.
His ability to adapt quickly to top-flight football suggests that he could become a key player for Dortmund, providing stability and strength at the back.
Acquiring Rouault would be a strategic move, adding a versatile player to the team’s defensive arsenal.
Full-Back #1 – Ian Maatsen
Ian Maatsen, who arrived at Dortmund recently, has quickly become a fan favourite and a crucial part of the team’s defence.
His performances have been nothing short of spectacular, showcasing his defensive solidity and, especially, his attacking prowess.
Dortmund has the option to secure his services permanently for around €30 million plus bonuses or by triggering his release clause.
Given his impact and potential, this would be a wise investment for the club, ensuring stability on the left flank for years to come.
Maatsen’s ability to contribute both defensively and offensively has filled a significant gap in Dortmund’s lineup.
His speed, technical skills, and tactical awareness make him a perfect fit for the team’s style of play.
Securing his transfer would not only solidify the defence but also provide a reliable option for future seasons, making this move a no-brainer for the club.
Full-Back #2 – Bafodé Diakité
Bafodé Diakité, valued at around €17 million, is another potential incoming transfer that could bolster Dortmund’s defensive line.
Known for his physical strength, versatility, and attacking threat, Diakité can play both as a centre-back and a right-back, making him a valuable asset for the team.
His impressive performances, particularly against top teams like Paris Saint-Germain, have highlighted his potential to become a world-class defender.
Diakité’s ability to adapt to different defensive roles adds much-needed flexibility to Dortmund’s backline.
His presence would strengthen defence and offer tactical versatility, allowing the team to switch between formations without losing quality.
Securing Diakité’s transfer would be a forward-thinking move, ensuring that Dortmund has a robust defensive setup capable of competing at the highest levels.
Defensive Midfielder #1 – Mats Wieffer
Mats Wieffer, a modern defensive midfielder, is seen as a potential key signing for Dortmund.
Despite being an ambitious and costly target, with a potential transfer fee of €30-40 million, Wieffer embodies the qualities needed in a defensive anchor.
His ability to control the game with and without the ball, coupled with his strong defensive presence, makes him an ideal candidate to strengthen Dortmund’s midfield.
Wieffer’s inclusion would provide the team with much-needed balance, protecting the defence while facilitating smooth transitions in the attack.
His all-around capabilities make him a perfect fit for the demands of top-flight football, and securing his transfer would be a significant coup for Dortmund, addressing a long-standing need for a reliable defensive midfielder.
Defensive Midfielder #2 – Ilia Gruev
Ilia Gruev, a 24-year-old Bulgarian central defensive midfielder currently at Leeds United, is another potential target for Dortmund.
With a market value of €5 million, Gruev offers an affordable solution to strengthen the midfield.
His previous experience in the Bundesliga with Werder Bremen makes him a familiar face in German football, capable of adding depth and stability to the team.
Gruev’s defensive skills and ability to break up play would provide additional support to Dortmund’s midfield, complementing more creative players and adding balance to the squad.
His experience and affordability make him a practical option for the club, ensuring that resources are used efficiently to address key areas of need.
Attacking Midfielder #1 – Justin Lerma
Justin Lerma, a 16-year-old attacking midfielder from Independiente del Valle, has already joined Dortmund for a transfer fee of €4 million.
This young talent is expected to train with the first team while also gaining experience with the U23 squad.
Given his potential, Lerma could quickly become an integral part of the senior team.
Lerma’s technical skills, vision, and flair for the game make him an exciting prospect for the future.
Dortmund’s track record of developing young talents into world-class players suggests that Lerma will have every opportunity to flourish.
His arrival adds depth to the attacking midfield position and represents a long-term investment in the club’s success.
Winger #1 – Jadon Sancho
A priority for Dortmund this summer is to secure the return of Jadon Sancho, ideally on loan with an option to buy.
Sancho’s previous stint at the club was marked by dazzling performances and significant contributions to the team’s success.
While a direct transfer may be too costly in the current market, negotiating a loan deal with a future purchase option could be a masterstroke.
Sancho’s creativity, pace, and goal-scoring ability are assets that Dortmund desperately needs to regain their competitive edge.
His familiarity with the club and the Bundesliga makes him a perfect candidate for an impactful return.
Bringing him back after his short loan spell would not only excite the fans but also add a significant attacking threat to Dortmund’s lineup, making them a formidable force in both domestic and European competitions.
Given the current high-profile options on the wings with Adeyemi, Malen and Bynoe-Gittens, there would be no need for another winger option besides Sancho at the moment.
Conclusion
The potential incoming transfers for Borussia Dortmund this summer represent a blend of immediate impact and long-term potential.
By targeting players like Ian Maatsen, Jadon Sancho, Justin Lerma, Mats Wieffer, Bafodé Diakité, Ilia Gruev, Anthony Rouault, and Dean Huijsen, Dortmund would position themselves to address key weaknesses and build a squad capable of competing at the highest levels.
These strategic investments reflect the club’s commitment to blending youth with experience, ensuring that Dortmund remains a formidable force in both domestic and European competitions for years to come.
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