Following a disappointing start to 2025, Borussia Dortmund parted ways with their manager and former midfielder, Nuri Şahin, early on Wednesday following a defeat at Bologna in the UEFA Champions League.
The loss down in northern Italy marked a fourth defeat in as many games for BVB, with only one win recorded since late November in all competitions, making Şahin's position untenable.
With Dortmund sitting in mid-table in the Bundesliga, seven points off a top-four spot which guarantees Champions League football for next year with 16 games to play, and their place in the knockout phase play-offs of that competition for this season already confirmed, there's still enough time and opportunity to salvage this campaign for the Schwarzgelben.
Hence, Dortmund's decision to act now regarding a change in the dugout.
This marks the first time since the 2020/21 season that Dortmund are in the market for a new manager mid-season.
That campaign ended with Champions League football delivered and a DFB-Pokal title to boot.
The Pokal will not come to them this time after their early elimination in the second round, and admittedly, it will be much harder to get back in the top four.
Dortmund recorded their lowest points tally at this stage of a Bundesliga campaign since 2014/15, Jürgen Klopp's final season with the club, when they only finished seventh.
But the next manager will have to take on that challenge with practically another half-season left, regardless of whether he will be there beyond this season.
This tactical analysis will take a closer look at some of the leading names being thrown around as the potential incoming new boss at the Westfalenstadion, with both short-term and long-term options included depending on which route the club decides to take for the remainder of this season and beyond.
Short-Term: Niko Kovač, 53 Years Old, Without Club
According to the most recent rumours, Niko Kovač is most likely to get the job on an interim basis until the end of the season.
This may signal that the Dortmund board plans to postpone the decision on who will lead the team long-term until the summer after the season is over.
As of this writing, it remains to be seen whether such terms will be agreed upon with Kovač in the coming days, but at the moment, the Croat seems to be the favourite to see out the remainder of the 2024/25 campaign with BVB.
With over four years of managerial experience in the Bundesliga with Eintracht Frankfurt, Dortmund's rivals Bayern Munich, and most recently Wolfsburg, Kovač seems like a safe option for Dortmund.
This is especially true given his current availability and likely lower demands compared to other options in the market.
Tactically, he's also unlikely to be a big departure from what Dortmund have been playing for a while now, with 4-2-3-1 and 4-3-3 being his most preferred setups in recent jobs and an emphasis on attacking through quick transitions and pressing compactly when out of possession.
VfL Wolfsburg Penetrating Carries Map 2022/23 Bundesliga
The above data viz highlights his VfL Wolfsburg team's ball-carrying abilities in his first season in charge during the 2022/23 season, where we can see how many of them come from wide areas and work their way into the final third and eventually the opposing penalty areas.
While Kovač has had some success as a manager in some of his previous clubs, things didn't end very well for him in his last two stints at German clubs, with both Bayern and Wolfsburg parting ways with him in the middle of the season.
That may be where the hesitancy lies for Dortmund to commit to giving him a deal beyond this term, despite the reports that it's what Kovač is looking for before agreeing to take the reins.
Long-Term: Urs Fischer, 58 Years Old, Without Club
Another option that Dortmund could go for that is currently clubless is Urs Fischer, the Swiss manager who took Union Berlin from the 2. Bundesliga to the UEFA Champions League in a span of five seasons, which earned him the Manager of the Year award in Germany in 2023.
Since his calamitous start to last season, which ultimately cost him his job, he's been inactive in the game and quietly waiting in the wings before taking on his next challenge.
Perhaps this Dortmund job is exactly the opportunity he's been looking for, although tactically, it's uncertain whether his style would be a good match for the make-up of the current Dortmund squad.
Union Berlin Crossing Zones Map 2022/23 Bundesliga
At Union, he predominantly set his side up in a 3-5-2 shape, which mostly focused on staying compact and disciplined defensively whilst finding success offensively through a high crossing success rate (which we can see above from his last full season in 2022/23) and a mix of short and long passing from the back, usually directly to their attacking options.
While it's clear that this current Dortmund team desperately needs more defensive discipline and organization, it's questionable whether they have all the tools and personnel required to play in Urs Fischer's system and whether the board even wants to seriously contemplate it.
But for Fischer himself, the opportunity to work with a bigger budget and higher quality than that of which he had at Union would surely be something he would relish, particularly if he could put pen to paper on a multi-year deal.
After all, he did build Union into a formidable side in the country over a few seasons, so if Dortmund were to hire him, it would have to be for a longer-term project.
He may not be the likeliest choice to land the job on this shortlist, but he may well be the most interesting in many ways.
Long-Term: Roger Schmidt, 57 years old, Without Club
One more manager that's also currently unemployed, but probably the most successful on this list having won trophies in four different countries, and that's Roger Schmidt.
Schmidt's brand of football certainly fits the bill aesthetically for those who enjoy watching Dortmund.
High pressing, offensive overloads, and dominating central zones are some of the hallmarks of his attacking philosophy.
An example of his aggressive pressing strategy can be seen with the data viz below, recording Benfica's high regains in their domestic league last season.
Benfica High Regains Map 2023/24 Primeira Liga
Schmidt also has a past in the Bundesliga as a manager.
However, it's been almost eight years since he last managed a game in German football, which happened to be, coincidentally, a loss at Dortmund that led to the end of his Bayer Leverkusen stint.
His sides have always been able to score goals in abundance and have been in the mix for top placements across all competitions, dating back to his days at Red Bull Salzburg, where he really began to make a name for himself as a manager.
However, as a long-term option, there will be some question marks about him given that in almost every job he's been in, things tapered out after a blistering beginning, such as was the case recently for him at Benfica.
There is also the alleged doubt of whether he is even interested, with rumours suggesting that he is unsure about the club's current structure.
While offensively, this team could go to another level under Schmidt, there's a good possibility that there will be a clash of personalities with him and the likes of Matthias Sammer and Sebastian Kehl, making him probably the least likely name here to land the role.
Long-Term: Sebastian Hoeneß, 42 years old, VfB Stuttgart
Lastly, but certainly not least, is the manager of the team currently sitting in fourth that Dortmund will be looking to usurp for Champions League football, Stuttgart's Sebastian Hoeneß.
This may be Dortmund's dream option, although obtaining his services will likely cost the club a lot, given that his current deal with Stuttgart runs until summer 2027.
Young, already proven, having finished second in the league last year ahead of the likes of Dortmund, Leipzig, and even Bayern, and tactically very adept on both sides of the ball, Hoeneß ticks all the boxes for what Dortmund would surely want in their next long-term appointment.
VfB Stuttgart Defensive Territory & Ball Progression Maps
Hoeneß is also tactically flexible, often alternating between 4-2-3-1 and 4-4-2 over the past couple of seasons.
Most importantly, in Dortmund's case, he prioritizes positional discipline and efficiency both with and without the ball.
He uses high pressing, a short passing routine, and dynamic transitional attacks.
Both data visualizations above highlight these different qualities across both seasons now under Hoeneß, with a large amount of success coming in intercepting balls in their defensive half and with both dribbling and progressive runs on the opposite end.
Stuttgart have ranked among the best teams in Germany in back-to-back seasons now (so far) when it comes to most goals scored and least allowed, which is a testament to the incredible work that Hoeneß has done in bringing the club back among the German elite after bouncing between the top two divisions and flirting with relegation for years previously.
He certainly seems to have all the ingredients Dortmund are likely looking for in a manager, but whether he'd want to leave his current project at Stuttgart to an uncertain, unstable environment that appears to be the case with Dortmund remains to be seen and, frankly, unlikely.
Conclusion
By no means is the shortlist above an exhaustive one.
Other names are also linked with the job, including Erik ten Hag, but we'll leave it to these four, who seem more credible options with more than the faintest chances of coming to fruition.
Which one Dortmund will go with, if any of them, will be revealed in the coming days.
There are challenges that come with appointing each of these managers, as we've highlighted why in this article.
Hence, it's very possible that Dortmund take a different route altogether, even if only until the summer.
But it's imperative for the club to get this next appointment right after struggling in the league under two inexperienced managers in Șahin and Edin Terzić, over the last two seasons.
Champions League football is still possible, but the hammer blow of missing out on the competition next season is also very real.
And with 2025 being the year that Dortmund will finally move on beyond the leadership of Hans-Joachim Watzke, who will be leaving in the autumn, the next man in the dugout could spearhead a new era for the club as they look to remain as an established German power in the years to come.
Comments