Burnley have now become a mainstay in the Premier League, under excellent leadership, the small east Lancashire club has managed to consistently punch above their weight and survive in the Premier League. Sean Dyche has been instrumental in their Premier League tenure but so have the Centre-back pairing of James Tarkowski and Ben Mee. Both defenders have been integral in their Premier League survival, they have helped build a strong defensive platform for Burnley to build their playoff and keep resolute throughout the season. This summer both these defenders are out of contract, and with Nathan Collins being the only recognized Centre-back behind them, the need to bring some Centre-backs in this summer looks inevitable. Burnley will most likely try and keep both of these defenders however the closer this gets to the end of June the less likely it becomes. It is also worth noting that it seems that Tarkowski is interested in going elsewhere, while Mee looks happy to stay at Burnley, according to reports.
This recruitment analysis and data analysis will look at some potential options for Burnley to replace both Ben Mee and James Tarkowski.
What does Burnley want from their Centre-backs?
In order for us to understand what Sean Dyche and Burnley require from their Centre-backs, we will look at, how Tarkowski and Mee perform in some defensive metrics. This will indicate what we need to look for in potential replacements. Internally some clubs may have certain KPIs that they use to measure the performance of certain positions, however without having access to the Burnley football club we cannot know what these KPIs would be.
Below will show both Tarkowski and Mee percentile ranks, amongst Premier League Centre-backs with over 750 minutes in the league this season.
From the data, we can see that Tarkowski is an excellent defender who is going to take some replacing. He leads the league in successful defensive actions and shots blocked per 90. In addition to being in the 90th + percentile for PAdj interceptions and Aerial duels per 90. In terms of defending there is nothing Tarkowski does poorly. In possession, however, he is less effective, something which may be down to Burnley and the way they play. It must also be noted his progressive passes and accurate progressive passes are relatively high both above the 50th percentile.
Ben Mee’s percentile ranks are less impressive than Tarkowski’s. with only one metric in the 90th percentile, which is aerial duels per 90. The rest of his defensive metrics are solid and show an effective premier league Centre back. Similar to Tarkowski, Mee doesn’t excel on the ball but does have a strong performance in Progressive passes per 90 and accurate progressive passes.
Looking at the data performance of Mee and Tarkowski it indicates that Burnley wants a defender first, someone who can perform well in their duels but also contribute with blocks, interceptions, and tackles. In terms of in possession metrics, Burnley requires a relatively high volume of progressive passes and passes to the final third. These metrics align with their playing style, a team that likes to sit deep and let the opposition dominate the ball and therefore require engaged defensive performances. In possession, they like to very quickly progress the ball upfield using long balls and passes.
The sample
For this analysis, a data sample of Centre-backs who play in Europe’s top five leagues plus Eredivisie, Primeira Liga and the EFL Championship were used. These players must have been between the ages of 18-28, as we want players who are youthful or in the prime years of their careers. They must have also played over 1000 minutes for their club this season.
Defensive metrics
The following graphs will take a look at some of the important metrics we outline earlier and how the sample perform in these metrics. These graphs will often be dominated by some of the world’s best Centre-backs and therefore for each graph, I have highlighted four players who perform well in these metrics that Burnley should be considering and are also a sensible transfer target for the club.
Firstly, we will look at defensive duel win % and aerial duel win %, two metrics both Mee and Tarkowski are strong in. The four players here, are four players who Burnley could realistically sign. Harry Souttar of Stoke City is only 23-year-old and is performing excellently in both aerial duels and defensive duels, one of the leaders in the sample.
Other notable performers in these metrics are FC Metz’s Boubakar Kouyate, Nicklas stark of Hertha Berlin who is available on a free transfer this summer and is a strong performer in both aerial and defensive duels. Finally, former West Ham defender Reece Oxford who has been steadily rebuilding his career in the Bundesliga with Augsburg is an intriguing name to see performing well.
The second set of defensive metrics we will address are PAdj interceptions and slide tackles. PAdj stands for possession adjusted, to remove the bias these raw metrics would have to low possession teams. The standout player in these metrics is Marco Rente of Heracles in the Eredivisie, with no one in the sample near him for both interceptions and slide tackle.
In addition to Rente, Chris Mepham currently of Bournemouth but has previously played for Premier League outfit Bournemouth and is a regular in Wales side, is another standout performer. Joe Worrall also performs well in these metrics, the Nottingham Forrest Centre-back is an established Championship defender who may be ready for the step up. Finally, Hoffenheim Centre-back Stefan Posch performs well in these metrics and may be of interest to Burnley.
In possession Metrics
We cannot solely look at defensive metrics as players must contribute in and out of possession. So, we will show four in possession metrics in the resulting graphs. When addressing in possession metrics, the above-average section will be filled with different players apart from some of the best defenders in the world, as very few defenders excel both in and out of the possession. Progressive passes and accurate progressive passes are the first in possession metrics. Ball progression is something Burnley value highly, with the way they play looking to progress the ball upfield as quickly as possible.
This graph is mainly dominated by players for top clubs like Pavard and Martinez however Dominic Hyam is an interesting name for Coventry City, whose progressive passing is both frequent and accurate. Ben Wilmot is another player from the Championship who performs well in these metrics. Both would be within the financial capabilities of Burnley. Riechedly Bazoer of Vitesse is another interesting name to mention. The defender is a free agent this summer and although there may be some interest in him, he would be a quality addition to Burnley, as one of the most accurate ball progressors in the sample. Konstantinos Mavropanos is the final interesting player in this graph. The Arsenal Loanee is excelling at Stuttgart and if the German side fails to stay in the Bundesliga it may open to door for Burnley to swoop in.
Finally, we will analyse Passes to the final third and accurate passes to the final third. Facundo Medina although may be beyond the reaches of Burnley, is an excellent passer of the ball being ball to move the ball consistently and accurate to the final third. Other players who perform well in these metrics but could be more realistic to Burnley would be Hatzdiakos of Az Alkmaar, Alexander Djiku of Strasbourg and Paddy McNair of Middlesbrough.
By looking at how the sample performs in some of the key metrics it has given us an indication of strong performers in these metrics who could be realistic signings for Burnley.
Option 1 – Reece Oxford
Formerly of West Ham, Reece Oxford has been rebuilding his career out in Germany. A path trod by many young English footballers, most famously Jadon Sancho. Oxford would make a strong replacement for the two departing Burnley centre backs. His defensive numbers never drop below the 50th percentile with him being able to defend successfully in a variety of ways. In possession, there is work to do with Oxford as he is one of the worst performers in possession metrics. However, I think Burnley should look beyond this and see the defensive talent Oxford has. There is always the chance for Oxford to develop with him being 23 and having relatively low exposure to high-level football.
Option 2- Boubakar Kouyate
Another player worth considering is Fc Metz’s Boubakar Kouyate. The 24-year-old Mali international has excellent defensive numbers this season, excelling in pretty much all defensive areas. In all defensive metrics used in this analysis, Kouyate’s numbers never drop below the 70th percentile. He also has the second most successful defensive actions per 90 in the whole sample.
Now we must contextualise that Metz are a struggling team in Ligue 1 so Kouyate will have a lot of defending to do, which allows Kouyate to have such impressive metrics. Metz also has a similar tactical style to Burnley where they look to sit in a low tactical block and progress the ball up the field as quickly as possible, which may also help Kouyate fit in their style of play, although his quality on the ball would need to improve.
Option 3 – Harry Souttar
With the potential for two centre-backs to be leaving this summer, more options for this area are required and this leads to Australian, Stoke City centre-back Harry Souttar. Souttar is a defender who performs well in and out of possession and when looking at his percentile ranks, you would argue they are better than Oxford and Kouyate’s but it’s worth noting these are recorded in the second division. But despite that Souttar would certainly make a quality addition to the Burnley squad. His Aerial duel wins % and defensive duel wins % are both above the 90th percentile, while also recording impressive progressive passes per 90 and accurate progressive passes per 90.
Option 4 – Niklas Stark
With a club like Burnley who aren’t blessed financially, keeping costs down and looking to identify bargains, when possible, is a vital facet of their recruitment. Therefore, I had to include one potential free agent signing and that is Niklas Stark of Hertha Berlin. The 26-year-old German defender’s contract is expiring this summer and currently has not agreed on any pre-contractual agreements. He is a consistent performer and performs well both in and out of possession. He has a strong number of progressive passes, while also being a strong defender.
Relegation options
The possibility Burnley are relegated this season is relatively high, at the time of writing they sit 19th with 11 games to go. Therefore, preparing some potential options for if this situation happens is a must. This led to considering two current Championship Centre-backs who perform strongly in the metrics mentioned earlier but also have league experience. Firstly, Dominic Hyam would make a great signing for Burnley. At 26 years of age, he isn’t the youngest but has established himself as one of the league’s best defenders and would certainly help Burnley bounce back to the Premier League. As the below percentile ranks show, he is a top performer both in and out of possession.
The second centre-back Burnley should consider if they get relegated is young Stoke City defender Ben Wilmot. At only 22 years old he is performing well in those key metrics discussed in the beginning. His defensive numbers are strong, especially in terms of PAdj interceptions, but his strongest attribute is his volume of progressive passes, being one of the top performers in the sample.
Both these centre-backs have relevant Championship experience but also tick the boxes in terms of what Burnley want from their centre-backs and would certainly help fill the void left by Mee and Tarkowski if they did get relegated.
Conclusion
The possibility Burnley face, of losing both of their centre-backs who have been at the heart of their recent successes, is daunting. However, there are certainly options out there who can come in and ease that blow of losing Tarkowski and Mee. The use of data as shown in the analysis can help identify possible replacements for these centre-backs and give an insight into the style and type of defender, the player is. Very few players in the sample, excelled both in possession and out of possession and these players were not realistic signings for Burnley, so they must find a balance and identify which is more valuable to their squad.
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