Central Coast Mariners 2023/24: Return season review and a potential playoff run – scout report

In 2010, the Central Coast Mariners were pulled from the A-League due to a lack of funding. However, fast forward to the 2023/24 season and Central Coast are back in the A-League and have just completed their return season.

Head coach Emily Husband has steered the side to a fifth-place finish in their first season back in the competition for the first time in over a decade. This sets up an elimination playoff against Melbourne Victory on the 14th of April.

In this tactical analysis, we outline some key tactics that have helped them succeed throughout the season and onto a potential playoff run. This scout report also looks at several essential aspects for Central Coast supporters to be positive moving on into the rest of this season and next.

Squad Overview

In this section we are going to outline how Central Coast have structured their squad and why it leaves them in an excellent position for the coming few seasons.

The first area to look at is the average age of the squad compared to the other A-League sides. What you can see is that Central Coast has the third youngest squad at 23.5 years of age, only bested by Sydney FC and Wellington Phoenix.

However, when you compare that to the league position of the four teams that made the playoffs (Melbourne City, Sydney FC, Western United, and Melbourne Victory) ahead of Central Coast, only Sydney FC had a younger average squad age, which means that Central Coast are only going to get better over the coming seasons.

Having examined the ages compared to other sides in the division, let’s examine more in-depth how the minutes were distributed within the squad.

This split indicates a good proportion of ascending talent within the Central Coast squad, with some exciting young prospects getting first-team experience.

Combine that with some ascending talent in the 21-24 age bracket that can provide a core of players for the coming few seasons.

Then there is the 25-28 bracket, which, as you might expect, makes up the largest proportion of the squad, given its association with the peak performance years.

It is also interesting to note that within the 25-28 age bracket, six of those ten players are aged 25 or 26, suggesting that they are only just entering their peak performance years.

Then you have the 29-32 age bracket, which is made up of two more experienced 32-year-olds: goalkeeper Casey Dumont and experienced Matilda’s international Kyah Simon. Simon is coming off a significant injury that prevented her from playing for 480 days.

This table is split into four groupings with the 17-20 age group as young prospects. The 21-24 age group being the ascending talent. 25-28 being generally associated as the peak production years. With 29-32 being the more experienced players who can still provide valuable quality to the squad.

What you can see is the proportion of minutes spread between the four 17-20 players, which only accounts for 9.59% of the sides’ minutes in the league. Over half of those minutes come from 17-year-old creative midfielder Peta Trimis, who has 1155 minutes.

Then, between the 21-24 and 25-28 age groups, there is a fairly even split, with a significant proportion of those first-team minutes coming from players getting towards their peak or playing at it already.

Within the 21-24 age group, you have three major players: Isabel Gomez, Ashley Irwin, and Bianca Galic, who each played over 2000 minutes for the side. Most importantly, they play in central midfield or the defence and could make up part of a strong young core of players to create the backbone of the side.

Then, in the 28-32 age group, 835 of the 1320 were made up by goalkeeper Casey Dumont, which means the core of outfield players still remains predominantly ascending players.

Overview

During the season, Husband has used a number of different formations to try and get the best out of her side. They have used various iterations of 3-4-3, 4-3-3, and 4-4-2 formations. This has made them a flexible and adaptable side, which has enabled them to be a real strength throughout the season. Despite these changes in shape, their principles remain the same, but we will get onto that later.

First, let’s take a quick overview on what has made this season such a success for Central Coast.

First, let’s look at a comparison of xG versus xG against (xGA). We have inverted the xGA axis as a high xGA would indicate a poor defensive side that concedes many goalscoring opportunities.

What you will notice is that Central Coast is a leading performer in both categories. Over the course of the season, they have created an xG of 35.27, which puts them as the sixth-best performer in the division. Defensively, they have conceded an xGA of 29.71, the third-best defensive record in the division.

This means that over the course of the season, Central Coast achieved the fourth-best xG differential, xG minus xGA, with 5.56, which, as a general rule, should put you in good stead in terms of the final league positions.

Having looked at the predicted success in terms of xG and xGA, let’s now look at how that has actually translated in terms of production by comparing goals scored with goals conceded. Again we have inverted the goals conceded axis as conceding more goals would be an indication of a poor defensive side.

Again, you can see that Central Coast is one of the leading defensive sides, having only conceded 24 goals over the course of the season, only bested by Sydney FC with 20.

Then, in front of goal with goals scored, they managed 31 goals across the season, which puts them as the eighth-best side in the division.

This meant that their goals scored to goals conceded differential was seven, the joint fourth best in the division, level with the Newcastle Jets.

As you can see from this brief overview, the Central Coast have had a successful first season back in the A-League. The underlying numbers mirror what we have seen in the league standings, which suggests there is substance behind these results.

Now, we will look at the tactical details that have helped them achieve this success during the season and some areas that they could develop moving forward.

Attacking Phase

First, let’s look at Central Coast in attack. As we have already outlined, they aren’t a dominant attacking side, with only the eighth-best attack in terms of goal production in the division. However, they have still been effective when given the opportunity.

As a side, Central Coast has not looked to be a high-possession side, only averaging 48% possession per game. Instead, they have tried to operate a more direct approach where they usually loft balls to move the ball quickly around the field.

In this example here, you can see how Husband’s side can vary the use of their passes to move the ball up the field quickly. The ball starts off with possession being played around the back before goalkeeper Sarah Langman clips the ball into wingback Faye Bryson.

Faye Bryson quickly headers the ball on to winger Rola Badawiya who retains the ball under pressure and then Central Coast play two short passes before Tess Quilligan get’s the ball in space.

Quilligan then sprays a ball out to left wingback Anabel Martin. Martin then drops the ball off to Bianca Galic, who clips the ball over the top to Peta Trimis, who makes a run in behind the opposition defence. The attack eventually culminated with Central Coast hitting the crossbar.

This clip shows how Central Coast can effectively vary their passes to play out of compressed areas using short passes and to stretch the opposition by playing more direct passes. Perhaps even more importantly, with the long passes on show, here are the players who are taken out of the game but clip the ball over their heads.

Another area where this ability to vary their passes is particularly effective is on the counterattack.

In this example, you have Trimis picking the ball up deep in her own half of the field. She uses her speed to carry the ball forwards before playing an effective ball towards Chinese international Wurigumula.

Wurrigumula then plays the ball forward, and the ball falls to young centre forward Annalise Rasmussen, who duly finishes the chance off.

One aspect that Central Coast can develop in the coming seasons is its ability to play possession. Now, we aren’t saying that they should revert to a possession-based game, but with the lowest number of progressive runs per 90 in the division at 11.12 and the seventh-best side in terms of progressive passes per 90, they can develop.

In addition to this, they completed the fourth-lowest number of key passes per 90 at 2.73. Now, the ability to create goalscoring chances is interesting, given the ascending young creative talent that Central Coast have in Peta Trimis and Bianca Galic.

Defensive Phase

Having looked at the attacking side of the ball, let’s now look at the defensive side. We have already noted the strength that Central Coast demonstrated in the defensive phase: consistently one of the leading defensive sides in terms of xGA and goals conceded. So, let’s take a look at what has made them so effective so far this season.

The first aspect to look at is a comparison of PPDA and challenge Intensity. We have flipped the PPDA axis as a low PPDA, which is an indication of a more intense pressing side, with the sides in the top quartile of the graph being the best pressing sides in the division.

What you will notice is that despite being one of the best defensive sides in the division, Central Coast has been very middle of the row when it comes to pressing. Now, a large part of this is due to the mid-block that Husband has deployed throughout the season.

Here, you can see the defensive shape of Central Coast against Canberra. What you can see is how Central Coast have looked to match up with their opponents’ shape defensively, using player-marking principles, particularly in the midfield. This enables them to win the ball back and eventually launch an effective transitional attack, which, as we have already looked at, is a noted strength of theirs.

Now, let’s look at how this mid-block has been effective. Here, we look at shots against the y-axis with % of shots blocked on the x-axis. We again flipped the shots against the axis as conceding more shots against would indicate a less effective defensive side.

The suggestion of this graph is that a team that concedes a low number of shots and blocks a high proportion of the shots they do concede are less likely to concede goals. It also implies that they are not only good at preventing opportunities from being created but also are well-drilled at orienting themselves to prevent opportunities that slip through the net.

What you notice is that Central Coast is effective in both areas. They concede the third-fewest shots in the division, 258, and block the second-largest proportion of their shots, 23%.

A major part to their success in this mid-block has been the effectiveness of twenty one year old midfielder Isabel Gomez. Gomez has won more defensive duels than anybody else in the division with 305 and completed these at a success rate of 64.26%. This has made her vital in terms of ball recovery for the side and from there they can launch dangerous counter attacks.

Here, you can see the Central Coast in deep defensive shape. What you can see is the compactness within their defensive shape. You can also see how Central Coast packs bodies into the box, so when Brisbane eventually plays a ball across the box to Mia Corbin, Central Coast has enough bodies to be able to prevent Brisbane from getting a clean shot away. The shot is blocked by Martin, and danger is diverted.

Conclusion

As you can see from our analysis, Central Coast has a number of areas that have made them an impressive side throughout their inaugural season. Husband has made them a leading defensive side, and with a number of exciting ascending talents, they are set up well for seasons to come.

However, an exciting elimination playoff final awaits against Melbourne Victory on April 14th less than two weeks away.