For Chelsea fans, 2022/23 will live long in the memory, but not for happy reasons. Instead, it will go down as the year when they went through a change of ownership, added around £600m worth of playing talent and achieved nothing, with their 12th place finish in the Premier League seeing them slip to their lowest position in the table in 29 years.
There is little doubt that the disruption caused by having three different people in charge did not help them, with multiple ideas being thrown around the dressing room and players having to constantly adjust between systems and tactics. The number of new arrivals will also have led to a lot of uncertainty over who was playing week on week.
However, that is now in the past, and 2023/24 gives them a chance to turn over a new leaf and fix what went so badly. The fact that they will begin the new campaign with a new person in charge means that at least there will be some much-needed clarity in the messages that they are being given on the training ground.
It is telling that owner Todd Boehly has gone for a big name and someone that he hopes will deliver success quickly, with Mauricio Pochettino being handed the Stamford Bridge reins on a two-year deal, with the option of a further year.
There is some debate amongst their fans as to whether he can deliver the trophies that they demand, given that he failed to secure any silverware during his five years at Tottenham Hotspur and only won some at PSG because of the stature of the club in the French pyramid and their financial capabilities (in the eyes of some).
However, what is agreed on is that Pochettino is the sort of name that they were hoping would be given the job of restoring them to their former glory.
When looking back at last season’s issues, it was clear that Chelsea lacked confidence and struggled both to score goals and to keep them out (they only found the net once per league game on average and conceded 1.24 times in each outing).
Therefore, there was a need for significant changes to be made to clear out some of those who were either underperforming, on the fringes or who wanted to leave for various reasons.
The departures of goalkeeper Édouard Mendy, defenders Kalidou Koulibaly, Ethan Ampadu, César Azpilicueta and Baba Rahman, midfielders N’Golo Kanté, Mateo Kovačić, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Tiémoué Bakayoko and Mason Mount and forwards Christian Pulisic, Kai Havertz and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have heralded in a new era and allowed them to recoup around £220m in the process.
However, it has not all been about slimming what had been a very bloated squad because there have been some new faces coming in too, although not as many this time as only Nicolas Jackson, Christopher Nkunku and youngsters Diego Moreira and Ângelo Gabriel have been signed to date, whilst Ecuadorian starlet Kendry Páez will join the club in 2025 on his 18th birthday. There are strong rumours that Rennes midfielder Lesley Ugochukwu will be added too, although the 19-year-old is likely to be loaned out next season to Strasbourg (a club that Chelsea have a majority stake in), whilst a deal has been agreed for Monaco centre-back Axel Disasi as well.
Out of those, the one that could feature on most occasions is Nkunku, and there will be significant interest as to whether he can deliver on the field because Chelsea have been chasing his signature for a number of windows.
Positionally, his previous club RB Leipzig often used him as a centre-forward. However, he did begin last season in either a wide attacking role or as a creative midfielder behind the striker. With Pochettino preferring his attackers to rotate, he does seem to fit the profile that the Argentine likes, and there is undoubtedly a lot of belief in his technical ability.
When taking a closer look at Nkunku’s metrics for last season, what becomes immediately clear is that he not only thrives in the final third, with him scoring 16 times for Leipzig last time out but that he also ranks highly in percentile terms for passes made, received passes and passing accuracy (with the last of those standing at 85% for last season and allowing him to pick up four league assists).
Therefore, it does feel like he is the type of player that Chelsea have been looking for, and his ability to get on the ball and make things happen could open up new possibilities for Chelsea and ones that they weren’t able to access last year.
Attacking Phase
Chelsea tactically did show a lot of the characteristics that Pochettino favours during last season, as they did look to get on the front foot, and there was evidence of players attacking different spaces around the pitch. As the season went on, one thing that was certainly evident was their desire to create numerical overloads in the final third, with them trying to stretch opponents out and then exploit the gaps that presented themselves.
In this case, against Nottingham Forest, January signing Noni Madueke is positioned on the far side of the pitch, and João Félix is playing through the middle, but Conor Gallagher is the player whose position needs highlighting here as he has got between them and is now in an area where he can receive the pass from Enzo Fernández and move it into the paths of either of those alongside him.
On this occasion, nothing came of this move as it broke down prematurely due to Nottingham Forest staying compact. Still, the idea behind the structure was sound, and it showed that, amongst the apparent chaos, there were little details that can be useful to Pochettino as he tries to rebuild them during the coming campaign.
However, one of the things that the Argentine will need to address is the need for a permanent attacking presence because there were plenty of times when Chelsea last season demonstrated some really well-executed build-up play but then had no way to convert it into a shot on goal.
The reason for this was the lack of a striker in their team, with Romelu Lukaku spending the season back on loan at Inter Milan and Aubameyang rapidly falling out of favour as the season went on, and the solution that was found was for either Kai Havertz or Félix to play through the middle in a false nine role.
The problem was that neither entirely understood what was needed in that position, with Havertz more of an attacking midfielder and Félix a winger by trade (even though both can play at the top if required). So both are used to being more mobile and getting on the ball in deeper areas of the field.
As a result, there were plenty of occasions when one of them received a long pass and turned to move it behind the opposing backline but found that there was no option available as that was where they should have been.
That is happening here against Liverpool, with Havertz dropping back and the area behind Liverpool’s defenders completely unoccupied. Félix is starting to come into the picture, as the red circle shows, but he could not get on the ball before Liverpool had their own players back, so the chance was wasted to hit them on the break and make the most of the quick counterattack.
When looking at both players’ shot maps for last season, the issue becomes abundantly clear, with the maps indicating that, whilst both did have plenty of efforts from inside the goal area, they also drifted around. They didn’t necessarily stay in the areas where a striker should be.
For that reason, the fact that they ended up with six and four goals, respectively, is no surprise, and Chelsea will need to find a way of turning their positive build-up play into results on a more regular occurrence.
Defensive Phase
The defensive side of things was just as much of a mixed bag, with various tactical analysis pieces of the team highlighting that there were things to like about them but also things that Pochettino will need to address urgently.
One of the positives was the performance of Thiago Silva, with him undoubtedly responsible for saving Chelsea’s blushes on plenty of occasions after an opposing counterattack had caught them out.
There was little doubt that he was the one Chelsea looked to as a way of allowing them to be so attack-minded when they had the ball due to his experience and ability to read the game and always put himself in the right position to disrupt opponents’ rhythm.
As this graphic indicates, Silva didn’t only stay in his own third, but he was at his most effective when in front of Chelsea’s goal, with the majority of his interceptions coming in that area, and he was one of the main reasons that they were successful in 62.3% of their defensive duels and 49.3% of their aerial battles.
This point is highlighted even further when noting that the fouls he committed came in higher positions, indicating that he was not as composed or comfortable when moving out towards the ball, and that was why Chelsea used him more often than not to anchor their defence together as soon as they lost possession.
Next season, his ability to stay back and allow others to push forwards may not be needed, with Pochettino preferring to set up with a back four as opposed to the back three that Chelsea utilised last season, and for his centre-backs to both stay back and to ensure that the team has a solid defensive foundation to build their attacks on.
That shape does morph into a back three as the team moves forward, but it doesn’t start the way it did with Chelsea last season, and it will be interesting to see where he feels the former PSG captain will fit into his plans as a result.
Perhaps one solution could be for him to shore up the back line when they are under pressure because there were plenty of times last season when Chelsea looked organised but lacked clarity over who needed to do what and required a leader to help them stop attacks earlier than they did.
When they visited the Emirates Stadium nearer the end of the campaign, this fragility at the back and lack of communication between players was laid bare for all to see, with Arsenal scoring all three of their goals from moments when Chelsea had a good setup but didn’t react to the movements that Mikel Arteta’s side made when the ball was passed into the central areas, which gave Arsenal time to shoot at goal.
In this case, the cross from Martin Ødegaard has been sent into the middle but rebounds off of Raheem Sterling on route, meaning it travels towards the edge of Chelsea’s goal area rather than the six-yard area.
The expectation is that one of the many Chelsea players behind it would then move towards the ball and clear the danger, but none of them did so as they all looked at each other, and that allowed Granit Xhaka to drop back instead and get on the ball and to control it before any Chelsea player had attempted to end the threat.
It clearly frustrated Frank Lampard on the sidelines by his reaction as the match went on, and it is something that Pochettino will need to work on it if he is to make his team as robust out of possession as possible.
Transitions Phase
As mentioned already in this scout report, Chelsea’s tactics largely revolved around them pushing up the field and getting numbers into key positions inside the final third, but every player was expected to contribute when they had the ball and needed to play their part in order to make the most of their time with it.
That included the centre-backs, with those on the outside of the back three needing to be good ball-players in order to pass out from the back and find those in the central third, either in the middle or on the wings.
This was particularly important during counterattacks when there was a need to move the ball up the field at speed to access the spaces their opponents had left open before they were sealed off.
However, it was not only a case of passing the ball up the field, as those ball-playing defenders pushed themselves up the pitch too in order to further support the team’s attacking play, and that is evident here when looking at where Trevor Chalobah and Benoît Badiashile are on the field.
There are several advantages to this, with it decreasing the distance that the ball has to travel between players and therefore reducing the risk of an interception and allowing the midfielders to stay closer to the forwards and thus execute those aforementioned overloads.
The fact that 42.9% of Chelsea’s counterattacks did lead to a shot on goal proved that they did enjoy limited success from this way of progressing up the field, but it is not something that should be expected in their performances as much under Pochettino, with him no doubt looking to modify the defensive setup to match his own tactical philosophy.
However, whilst that was a mainly positive point, the negatives come when looking at how they acted once they lost the ball. Chelsea’s aim whenever they were out of possession was evidently to press their opponents and to force premature passes and mistakes, but what they didn’t do well was getting tight enough to each opponent whenever the ball was transferred around the field.
In this case, there was only half an effort made to close the ball down, and that simply had no effect and instead left spaces open for Arsenal to play through Chelsea’s lines and into their key threats and the fact that this particular move ended up with Arteta’s side scoring despite there being several blue-shirted obstacles between them and the goal here indicates just how costly it could be for Chelsea when they didn’t execute their press efficiently enough.
It was no doubt frustrating for those watching on the sidelines, in the stands or at home because there were plenty of occasions when Chelsea did press effectively and win the ball back. This graphic indicates how many times they were able to regain possession in advanced areas. Therefore, the only explanation for the moments when it didn’t work can simply be a lack of desire and effort, which Pochettino will not like and will stamp out very quickly.
However, the basic principle of counterpressing is something that the Argentine is a fan of, and so the fact that Chelsea know already how to execute that side of the game will please him, and fans can expect it to continue going into the coming campaign.
How could Pochettino set Chelsea up?
There has been a lot of discussion in this analysis about Pochettino’s preferred tactics and some of the key stylistic concepts that could shape Chelsea’s play with him at the helm. However, with those in mind, attention now turns towards which players might suit his style and which he could look to give time to on the field.
Pochettino prefers a 4-2-3-1 system more often than not, although he has been known to alter between systems during his managerial career as he reacts to different circumstances and the players he has available to him.
Nevertheless, one of the things that is paramount to any system he turns to is the need for energetic full-backs with an attacking mindset, which is something that Reece James and Ben Chilwell are well-suited to. When they are fit, it is hard to see anyone else ahead of them in the pecking order for those positions.
Between them, as mentioned already, the centre-backs need to be good at playing out from the back and adapting to a fluid shape in possession, with Pochettino preferring to slot one of his holding midfielders into the back line and allowing the two central defenders to split in order to cover for the full-backs pushing forwards. There may be several combinations used as the season goes on, but the one that has been touted in the media as producing the best results is a partnership of Wesley Fofana (although he is likely to be out for a number of months due to a long-term injury) and Badiashile, with both capable of playing in back fours and back threes.
In the two holding roles, there needs to be a combination of a progressive distributor and a player capable of playing in a hybrid defence/midfield role, much as Eric Dier did when Pochettino was at Tottenham.
Fernández is almost sure to claim the first of those, but determining who will line up alongside him is more challenging to determine. Last season, it might have been given to Kanté due to his tenacious tackling ability, but his departure means that Pochettino may turn to one of his younger options to fill that position.
Andrey Santos might be a good fit given that he began his career as a defender before transforming into a midfielder, so he doesn’t have that dissimilar a profile to Dier. However, with strong links to Brighton and Hove Albion’s Moisés Caicedo refusing to go away amid two reported bids being rejected for the Ecuador international, this might be a position to keep an eye on as the summer goes on.
With the full-backs controlling the width, the task of the wingers will be to make inverted runs and to support attacks from the half-spaces, and Chelsea already have many players who would be good at fulfilling those demands.
Madueke has shown the right level of pace and 1-v-1 ability to make his claim for a starting position, whilst Pochettino is a fan of Raheem Sterling, and his ability to play centrally and on the wing during his time at Manchester City could come in useful.
New arrival Jackson is also capable of playing as a winger or a central attacker, so he too could be seen as a good fit, whilst Ukraine forward Mykhailo Mudryk has shown glimpses of what he can do and could benefit from Pochettino’s approach.
Assuming that Nkunku slots into the attacking midfield role, that only leaves the striker position to determine, and yet this is the most difficult solution to find and has undone plenty of recent Chelsea managers.
Due to financial constraints caused by their spending spree in the last two windows, Chelsea may not have the ability to sign another top-quality goalscorer this summer (following the addition of Jackson) and so may have to settle for what is already there to fill that role.
As a result, even though there have been reports that he will leave this summer, Lukaku may be the one that Pochettino turns to if he uses Jackson in a wider role, even though the Belgium international would not bring the rotational ability that the Argentine is looking for.
The alternative would be to deploy Nkunku in the central role and to find another player to operate behind him, but the risk with that is that it may not solve Chelsea’s goalscoring issues if Nkunku does what Havertz did and tries to drop back too much.
Pochettino will need to think long and hard about who he puts into that role because it could be the difference between a positive and a negative campaign for the team.
Key Player: Enzo Fernández
When looking at a player who will make a difference on the field, attention instantly turns towards Fernández, with the Argentina international signed from Benfica in January to provide the deep-lying distribution qualities that Chelsea need as they look to get more players up the field. He is likely to relish playing in his countryman’s system due to Pochettino wanting to push numbers up the pitch in much the same way.
Fernández’s metrics are very impressive, with him not contributing to as many goals compared to others in his position in the Premier League (he didn’t find the net in any of his outings), but seeing 88.9% of his passes find their intended target, and that indicates that he is a player that his teammates can rely on to instigate attacks and ensure that they have every possibility of testing their opponents when inside the final third.
However, Fernández’s game is about so much more than simply making progressive passes, and, interestingly, his highest percentile metric in that chart was the percentage of defensive duels that he won during 2022/23.
It is not only inside his own half that he made those recoveries either, with this graphic indicating that a vast number of them took place inside the opposing half last time out (25 in total), with seven leading to a shot on goal within 20 seconds of the ball being recovered.
Therefore, even though his abilities with the ball have been well-documented, his work without it is just as prominent. The fact that he made 2.86 interceptions per game on average last season and won 60.2% of his defensive duels shows how he will be a crucial part of Pochettino’s progressive style with the ball and pressing tactics without it.
One to Watch: Lewis Hall
With Pochettino known for favouring and nurturing youth and those that he feels he can develop, there will be many young players at Chelsea that may be kept on and given opportunities in the first team during 2023/24.
However, one who has already experienced the Premier League and who could be a key player for the club under the Argentine is Lewis Hall, with him being a versatile operator that he really appreciates.
Capable of operating as a left-back, left wing-back or a box-to-box midfielder, Hall could be the solution to the ‘six’ role that Pochettino is still missing at the moment (he won 71.7% of his defensive duels, 50% of his aerial battles and made 4.35 interceptions last season) and yet could also be a good attacking left-back solution should Chilwell and/or Marc Cucurella pick up an injury during the campaign, with him known for getting crosses into the middle (he registered a 40.9% crossing accuracy last season).
He is a precocious talent that Chelsea could benefit from giving opportunities to as the season goes on.
TFA Verdict: 6th
If Chelsea finish 6th it will be a big improvement on last season but it certainly won’t feel like it. Anyone with a dose of realism doesn’t expect Pochettino to rock up and make them title challengers overnight, therefore 6th is probably where they should finish this rebuilding season before dreaming of bigger things in 25/26. Will the owners like that though, especially missing out on that Champions League money once again?
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