For Chelsea Women fans, 2023/24 has been a season of heartbreak, firstly because of the announcement that long-serving head coach Emma Hayes will depart at the end of the campaign to take charge of the USWNT and then because of the weekend’s news that star striker Sam Kerr has suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury during a warm-weather training camp in Morocco and will miss the remainder of the season.
The fact that Kerr’s injury has come during the winter transfer window has perhaps been a blessing in disguise, with Chelsea able to make an immediate move to sign a replacement if they can find the right player. However, whether they need to or not has been the subject of debate among their fanbase, with some arguing that there is no inherent need to enter the market due to Chelsea already having USA forwards Mia Fishel and Catarina Macario on their books, with both joining in the summer from Tigres Femenil and Lyon Féminin respectively.
As of yet, the club have not been linked with any new strikers and look set to trust their current options, and this tactical analysis will look at whether that is the right course of action to take, breaking down the qualities that both Fishel and Macario bring to the field and showing where Chelsea could trip up by leaving it to them to replace Kerr. Given that there are risks to not signing a replacement, the scout report will also suggest some players that could be good options for Hayes to target if she wanted to avoid them, highlighting where each could add to Chelsea’s play and how they would fit into the team’s tactics.
Sam Kerr
Before looking at any potential solution to the conundrum currently facing Chelsea Women, though, it is essential to first gain an insight into precisely what they have lost as a result of Kerr’s injury, providing a basic profile of what she gives them on the field and therefore what they now need to find in any replacement for her.
One of the key qualities that they will need to replace is the guarantee of goals that she brings, with Chelsea always looking more likely to score whenever she is on the pitch and often relying on her to turn tight matches in their favour.
She has been so potent for several reasons, but what has really stood out is the timing of her movement around the field, with her constantly seen on the shoulder of opposing back lines and yet only averaging 1.1 offsides per game during the first half of the campaign. Here, it would be very easy for her to stray over the line in her attempt to get on the end of Ève Périsset’s pass towards her, but she doesn’t and instead waits until the France right-back has evaded the attempt of Colombia centre-back Jorelyn Carabalí to tackle her before moving between Norway duo Maria Thorisdottir and Guro Bergsvand to provide a passing option.
Even though her shot was thwarted by former Manchester United Women goalkeeper Sophie Baggaley here, the constant threat that she poses inside the goal area is clear to see, and it is her ability to time runs like this to perfection that has made her such a crucial part of Chelsea’s success during her stay at the club.
As her time at Chelsea has progressed, though, her game has evolved, and she has become much more than just an expert goal scorer, with there being a greater reliance on her ability to create chances as well as to finish them off. In this case, she has intercepted an attempted pass by experienced Spain midfielder Vicky Losada. She has then received the ball from Johanna Rytting Kaneryd, but she doesn’t try to get it down and shoot here and instead opts to move it back towards the Sweden winger to allow her to test her luck instead.
She has developed this side of her game largely because of Hayes’ desire to keep her players rotating around the pitch and never staying still, with her aim being to make her team as unpredictable to play against and as tough to contain as possible.
However, it has not only been to Hayes’ benefit that Kerr has worked on being more creative and dropping back whenever her team has the ball because the player, too, has increased her skillset through this slight change in her role. The fact that she has picked up three assists and has registered a 78.1% passing accuracy, as well as scoring nine goals during the first half of the season, shows how any replacement for her will need to be just as good at building play as they will be at providing an end product inside the goal area.
Having a player like Kerr, who is happy to drop back when needed and to allow others to play in the central areas, has been incredibly beneficial this season, with Chelsea’s tactics mainly revolving in recent months around getting England star Lauren James into the middle of the field and utilising her pace and ability to change direction at speed to exploit gaps left open by opposing defensive lines.
In this case, Kerr has shifted towards the wing to give James the freedom to make a diagonal run inside the pitch and to search for any spaces in the Paris FC Féminines lines that she can break through, and, even though this move doesn’t lead to anything, the role played by Kerr in facilitating it is still clear to see.
Current alternatives
With it now laid bare just how much Kerr offers on the pitch and with a profile now formed of exactly what anyone who comes in to lead Chelsea Women’s line will need to have in their game, this analysis will now turn towards assessing if any of Chelsea’s current options are able to come in and to replace her, breaking down the strengths and weaknesses of each potential candidate.
The most likely player to be handed the role is Fishel, given that, like Kerr, she has a record of being a serial goal scorer, with her scoring 17 times during the 2022 Liga MX Femenil Apertura campaign to help Tigres lift the trophy and to secure her the tournament’s Golden Boot (and then a further 13 times in the 2023 Clausura tournament).
Whilst that is an impressive return for a player still at the start of her career, what also stood out during her time in Mexico was her ability to give herself and her team options on the ball. As is evident here, this is something that she has brought with her to the WSL, with her body positioning the key thing to focus on as she holds Tottenham Hotspur Women defender Molly Bartrip off behind her and allows herself to either lay the ball off for a teammate or to turn and try her luck in front of goal once James has fed the ball into her feet.
This unpredictability is something that will really endear her to the Chelsea fans if, as expected, she does see her time on the field increase as a result of Kerr’s absence because it will fit in well with the overall Chelsea mentality of never being too static and of ensuring that they have a player at the top of the field who can create as well as score. On this occasion, she opted for the latter and managed to test goalkeeper Becky Spencer. Even though she was denied on this occasion, the fact that this was her debut did provide fans with a great deal of excitement about what she might offer as the campaign went on.
Unfortunately, though, her performances as the weeks have gone by have not always lived up to those hopes, with it clear that there is still a lot for her to learn as her career progresses. One thing that she will need to improve on is her ability to read the game and to make decisions earlier about when to move beyond the defensive line because there have been several matches when she has stayed in front of it and has, therefore, not given her teammates the target at the top of the field that they have at times been looking for.
In this case, Aggie Beever-Jones has cut back onto her right foot and is now looking to deliver the ball into the Bristol City Women goal area. Fishel needed to be in the space marked by the white square in order to give her the possibility of turning home the inswinger from her teammate. However, she is instead on the other side of the Bristol players, with the result being that the chance comes to nothing.
It is absolutely true to say that knowing when to make these runs will come with experience, and as she continues to grow at Chelsea, but there is also no getting away from the fact that Kerr would have made that run and would have been where Beever-Jones needed her to be. Therefore, this does perhaps suggest that there are limitations to what Fishel could offer when leading the line at this moment in time.
For that reason, it might be better to rely more on Macario once she returns from her own ACL issue, which has seen her spend 18 months on the sidelines, given that she built a reputation at Lyon for reading the play and for giving her teammates the chance to play balls up the field and to test the resilience of their opponents’ defensive lines.
In this case, during the 2021/22 Division 1 Feminine campaign (which was the last time that she was seen on a football field), she has noticed that France left-back Selma Bacha has possession and is looking to exploit the gap that PSG Féminine have left open, and so has angled her body to give her that passing option and to allow Lyon to punish the momentary lapse in concentration made by their league rivals.
What is really key to note here, though, is how Macario has looked to move forward before Bacha has touched the ball, and this shows how she is always ahead of those around her and knows how and where she can affect the game. The fact that this opportunity leads to a goal shows how she can match that awareness with the end product expected of a striker. Therefore, when bringing all of this together, there is definitely an argument to say that she would be a good replacement for Kerr whilst the Australian is on the sidelines.
As well as that ability to time her runs and to finish chances off, the fact that she was mostly used by Lyon as an attacking midfielder means that she can also offer the quality in build-up play that Chelsea would need from their striker, too. Here, she has received a pass and has instantly turned to feed it into the path of Delphine Cascarino (who is also out of action with an ACL injury at this moment in time), which leads to the France winger breaking through the Guingamp Féminines line and getting into a position from which she can set up a goalscoring opportunity.
The critical point to mention here though is not the pass that Macario makes, though that is clearly important in fashioning the opportunity, but the fact that she doesn’t simply sit back and watch the chance unfold and instead moves forward to offer a return pass should one be needed. In this case, that proves to be instrumental in allowing the goal to come about, with Ada Hegerberg shifting towards Cascarino to drag the Guingamp backline, who have been known for their robustness, out of position and, therefore, unable to convert the cross. Macario’s run forward allowing her to instead put the ball into the net from inside the six-yard area.
Macario ended that campaign with 22 goals in all competitions, 13 of which came in the league, so her ability to finish chances again cannot be doubted. Combine that with her 77% passing accuracy and seven assists in all competitions (five of which were in the league), and there is no doubt that she is the perfect player to replace Kerr.
However, there is still no getting away from the fact that she is still in recovery from her injury and will need a lot of time to get back to full match fitness again, and so perhaps putting so much expectation and responsibility on her shoulders is not the best thing to do. Add to that the fact that other players like Beever-Jones and Japan forward Maika Hamano could lead the line but are perhaps better suited to wider roles, given their natural pace and 1-v-1 abilities, and the conclusion to draw from this section of the scout report is that Chelsea perhaps don’t have the right player at the moment to replace their injured Australian star.
Potential targets
Therefore, it might not be a bad idea to at least explore other options in the transfer market, even if it were simply a loan deal for the rest of the season until something more permanent could be arranged in the summer. Suppose Chelsea Women were to pursue that course of action and to add to the signing of Everton Women and Sweden defender Nathalie Björn (who has this week sealed a switch to Kingsmeadow). In that case, there are a number of players who could offer what they are looking for.
One who does stand out is Eintracht Frankfurt Frauen’s Lara Prašnikar, with the Slovenia striker an experienced operator and someone who knows what it takes to play at the game’s highest levels. She is a key part of Frankfurt’s play, so they would be hesitant to let her go, but she might see a move to Chelsea as a step up in her career and a chance to test herself in a new environment.
She would not be a like-for-like replacement, with this heatmap indicating her tendency to frequent the wider spaces more often than Kerr would, but that is only down to the way that Frankfurt set their team up, with Prašnikar tending to feature alongside Germany forward Nicole Anyomi at the top of the pitch whilst the likes of fellow Germany international Laura Freigang, Austria playmaker Barbara Dunst and versatile Switzerland player Géraldine Reuteler offer support from behind. So she could adapt if Chelsea were to make a move for her services.
What might count against her is that she wouldn’t necessarily offer the goal threat that Chelsea would need from her, with her picking up six assists in the Frauen-Bundesliga so far this season but only finding the net on three occasions to date. Therefore, if the WSL’s defending champions were to move for her, they would still need to find someone else to play alongside or near her who could convert the chances that Prašnikar creates, which might be seen as too risky, given that it could require systemic alterations.
Another player that Chelsea may look at is France forward Kadidiatou Diani, who is a player that they previously held an interest in a year ago as her contract at PSG entered its final six months, but who eventually stayed with her team until the summer.
Now playing for Lyon, she would still fit the right profile should Chelsea decide to revisit a move for her, with this shot map indicating how she offers a goal threat in the central areas and particularly in the six-yard area, meaning that she could score the same types of goals that Kerr does. She is also clinical and rarely wastes opportunities, with her scoring 22 goals in all competitions last season and finding the net on seven occasions during the first half of the current one, whilst she also assisted six goals last season and has assisted eight so far in this one.
She would also offer Chelsea a much better aerial threat whenever they are forced to be more direct, with her succeeding in 61.9% of her aerial battles so far this season (Kerr, in comparison, only won 48.1% of hers before the break). Therefore, adding her to their squad would not only replace what Chelsea have lost, but might actually give them something else that they didn’t perhaps have before.
However, much like with Prašnikar, the chances of Diani being available for a transfer, even a temporary one, are minimal. So Chelsea may need to look elsewhere to find a player who would match the profile they would be looking to fill. Someone who might be available at the right price and who could be interested in a switch to the WSL is Norway forward Karina Sævik, who was a crucial part of Vålerenga Damer’s Toppserien triumph last year.
She is not necessarily a striker, with her operating more as a winger or an attacking midfielder for her current side. Still, the fact that she scored 12 goals last season (making her the second-highest scorer in the 2023 campaign) shows that she would offer the goal threat that Chelsea are looking for and, like Macario, could make runs from deeper areas too, whilst her four assists and 67.1% accuracy for passes to the final third shows that she can create as well as score.
As this graphic shows, she would also cover roughly the same areas of the pitch as Kerr, meaning that the systemic changes that might have been required with the other players would not be required, and the fact that she has tended to dribble with more success than the Australian shows how, like Diani, she could bring something new to Chelsea’s play. She would perhaps be the best of these three players to target should Hayes’ team decide to enter the market to find a new attacker to lead their line.
Conclusion
In conclusion, this tactical analysis has looked at how Chelsea Women can replace star Australia striker Sam Kerr following the confirmation of her ACL injury, with the aim of the analysis being to present some solutions to the ongoing debate as to whether the club should sign a new player or trust in what they already have.
Throughout the analysis, it has become clear that Chelsea do have players who can stand in for Kerr, but that there are limitations to using each of them and that there isn’t one who could perhaps lead the line for the rest of the season. For that reason, a loan move for another player to bolster their ranks is not a bad idea, especially with Chelsea chasing a quadruple as they try to end Hayes’ time at the club in the best possible way.
It is also worth remembering that it is not only Chelsea who are facing the prospect of an extended period of time without their talismanic striker. The Australia national team too will be without her, and, given that they have the potential of Olympics matches coming up in the summer (should they get past a qualifying double-header with Uzbekistan in February), they would have been hoping to have her available to captain them in Paris.
With them having to find ways of playing without her last year at the World Cup, they will already have ways of getting results in her absence in place. However, there is still no getting away from the fact that, for both the Matildas and for Chelsea, Kerr will be a big miss and will be very difficult to replace.
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