The 2024 MLS season has been a whirlwind for Chris Armas and his Colorado Rapids.
At the moment of writing, the team currently sits in the fifth spot in the Western Conference, having tallied 11 victories, five draws and nine losses.
However, Armas has done a great job of turning the ship around this season, overperforming with one of the youngest squads in the American top flight, all while topping some interesting underlying metrics in the process.
In this Chris Armas tactical analysis, we’ll take a look at Armas’ philosophy and how it moulded Colorado Rapids’ tactics to propel them upwards on the table.
The analysis will delve deeper into all of their phases of play, carefully dissecting patterns and statistics to give you all the information about the MLS side.
Chris Armas Manager profile
Chris Armas is a 51-year-old head coach of Colorado Rapids with this team being his first big standalone appointment after a couple of supporting roles.
Before the MLS job, the New York-born gaffer had worked as a scout for the Championship side Leeds United and even in the Premier League as Manchester United’s assistant manager.
If we go even further back than that, we can see he had jobs both at Toronto and New York, as well as working in women’s football too.
Currently, he’s leading the fourth youngest squad in the MLS with an average age of just 25.5.
Interestingly, even though the team is currently fifth on the Western Conference table, Wyscout data analysis tells us that they should be first according to the expected points (xP) metric, which calculates the likelihood of winning games based on the expected values system.
Armas has led the team in a total of 25 games so far in 2024, registering 11 wins, five draws and nine losses, seven of which have sadly come in the away stadiums, signalling a clear struggle away from home.
Still, Colorado Rapids have seen a huge swing in their favour this season, and the 51-year-old tactics and setups have certainly played a key part in that.
So, let’s dive straight into the analysis.
Chris Armas In-possession tactical analysis
Build-up phase tactics
So far in the 2024 MLS season, Colorado Rapids have strongly favoured the versatility of the 4-2-3-1 approach, using it in an overwhelming 81% of games, with the 4-4-2 being the distant second favourite.
In their setup, Armas generally opts for a standard back four, a double pivot, a number 10, two wingers and a striker down the middle.
This structure, however, undertakes some changes while in possession, and we’ll dissect them further down the line of this tactical analysis.
As a whole, Armas is also a coach who doesn’t insist on prolonged spells of possession; Colorado Rapids have so far tallied a below-average number of passes per 90 and a below-average passing rate (14.3) with a below-average accuracy and an overall 49.5% ball possession.
All of this signals a team that doesn’t smother the opposition on the ball, nor does it insist on pinning them down with sustained pressure in possession.
Looking at the touch and pass maps here, we can see some clusters forming, particularly in the wide areas of the pitch, while the centre remains generally empty.
Colorado Rapids are a team that doesn’t recycle or retain possession that well but will instead opt to verticalise from the first phase as soon as possible.
While there are certain mechanisms for a more systematical progression path, which we will discuss later on in the tactical analysis, they prefer simpler and more direct routes towards the final third.
According to our data analysis, Armas’ team ranks second in the most passes to the final third and fourth in passes to the final third per 90 (51.6 with 74.3% accuracy).
Considering they are not volume passers, this suggests a quicker and more direct pathway to the opposition’s danger areas.
That can be done via a single longer pass or several shorter but similarly vertical passes instead, as can be seen in the following progression graphs.
Colorado Rapids don’t spend much time in the first phase of possession and will, instead, have the goalkeeper quickly release the ball either directly into the higher targets or to his immediate first option, usually one of the centre-backs.
Zack Steffen, their first-choice goalkeeper, is the player with the most long passes in the team and seventh most in the league, signalling his preference to go long when starting the attacks.
A potential alternative is to carry the ball out of pressure, and this is usually done by either accessing the full-backs, who aim to beat their markers and progress or creating superiorities and turning the centre-backs into free men who can carry into open space before connecting with their teammates higher up the pitch.
Generally, however, there are two setups they use in their first-phase tactics, and we’ll see them in the following image.
The first option is the standard 4-2 base, with two centre-backs, two full-backs, and two pivots participating in the first phase of play ahead of the goalkeeper.
When facing a one-man pressing scheme, the two centre-backs are generally enough to achieve progression, but even in such situations, Armas likes creating a back three by either dropping a pivot in the backline or instructing one of the full-backs to stay deep.
This is why we often see them use deep carries to escape pressure.
With Colorado Rapids, it’s all about creating and then accessing the free man, and depending on how difficult that is, they will use more complex mechanisms to achieve their goal.
If having a back three is enough to free up one of the centre-backs, progression will be as easy as letting that player run with the ball once numerical superiority has been achieved.
If, however, the opposition commits more people in the press, Colorado Rapids will either play directly over the press, often via the goalkeeper or use a principle of playing into the pressure, something Roberto De Zerbi’s Brighton & Hove Albion were famous for.
This principle is based on sequential dismarking as the opposition players are baited one by one, each freeing their markers in a sequence and thus allowing the players on the ball to access them.
Both that and the direct progression route can be seen next.
Interestingly, Colorado Rapids don’t have elite ball-playing defenders even though the centre-backs can be vertical in their passing.
Their tasks are primarily to access the main progressors and creators further up the pitch, while the full-backs are more attacking in nature, focusing on crosses and deep completions in the final third.
When it comes to the most influential figures in possession, Connor Ronan and Cole Bassett are the two main pieces, the former from a deeper position and the latter from a more advanced one with the licence to roam.
Ronan generally partners another player in a double pivot but has been known to drop deeper and aid progression.
His volume and progression rates at Colorado Rapids are only topped by Bassett himself, who is a true box-to-box presence.
He registers the most passes and passes to the final third in the team, the most progressive runs in the team, and has so far been ranked among the best defensive midfielders in the league by Wyscout’s index.
And while he may be a defensive midfielder on paper, in reality, he is much more than that.
At the moment of writing, Bassett has scored three goals outside of the penalty area from 22 shots (most in the team) and has three third assists (second-most in the league), second-most shots in the team (49) and second-most from open play.
Similarly, he is the player with the second-most headers in the team (nine), the most crosses in the team (58) and also the second-most defensive duels in the league with 177.
Quite clearly, apart from often being the hub in possession, Bassett dictates a lot of what happens further up the pitch as well.
And that is an excellent segue into the next section of our tactical analysis.
Chris Armas Final third tactics
Colorado Rapids are not among the most efficient or complex teams in possession, but their final product has been good enough to put them in the upper echelon of MLS teams in 2024.
So far, having played 25 games, Armas’ team has scored 56 goals and is tied for fourth in that category.
However, the overperformance is glaring as they’ve only accumulated 42.83 expected goals, good enough for the third spot in the league.
So far, this has been working for them but such overperformances are often difficult to sustain, even more so when we factor in that they only have two reliable goalscorers in the team.
That said, their structures in the final third are sensible and balanced, as Armas likes to have five zones occupied when arriving into the final third.
And arriving is the right word here; Colorado Rapids are not a team that will sustain pressure over a longer spell of possession but will rather attack in quick and consecutive waves.
The following image will give us a glimpse of their final third shape in a relatively settled possession phase.
The initial back four is present once again as both full-backs like to push forward to accommodate the inverting wingers.
Seeing how the front three are usually quite narrow, the width comes either from the overlapping full-backs or drifting midfielders.
In such a setup, they will have a 2-2 base with the centre-backs and two pivots, while the third midfielder gets more freedom to roam the final third.
The pivots are tasked with aiding the centre-backs in linking the lines, but one will generally be positioned somewhat higher with more offensive tasks.
The wingers can start quite wide but will often tuck in right next to the striker and attack the space behind the opposition’s backline, often through their respective half-spaces.
The main creative threat is often on the flanks, as Colorado Rapids excels in deploying deep completions from those wide areas following an overlapping run.
At the moment of writing, they are the team with the third-most deep completions and fifth-most if using the per 90 metric (8.69).
This latest example showcases some of those mechanisms we talked about in this tactical analysis.
One of the midfielders drops deeper to assist the progression, as centre-backs are not always the most reliable tool to get the ball through congested spaces.
Once the midfielder drops, however, his movement attracts the attention of his markers, who have to either leave him with enough space and time on the ball or try to collapse, triggering the De Zerbian sequential dismarking we discussed earlier.
The other midfielder then sees the space open up behind their backs and runs into it, quickly getting the ball from his teammate.
From there, the quick sequence continues as the pass goes towards the overlapping full-back, who finishes the action with a cutback into the box.
Even though the sequence does not end with a goal, it does a good job showcasing some of the chance-creation mechanisms Colorado Rapids have up their sleeves.
Generally, however, Chris Armas has created a good environment for his team as they are currently the squad with the highest expected goal-per-shot value in the league.
At the moment of writing, they are averaging 0.152 xG per shot, outperforming the competition.
Their average has fallen off slightly since their last game, and the data for that has yet to be quantified in our chart engines.
Hence, there is a slight discrepancy between the numbers you see in the image and the statistics we have on hand.
Currently, Colorado Rapids average 10.48 shots per 90, which is still below the average in the current MLS season.
However, 40.9% of those shots are on target, good enough for fifth-best in the league.
Interestingly, with 49 headers, they rank third in that category and have also tallied 11 shots on posts so far.
When it comes to shots from open play and shots from outside the box, Colorado Rapids are still below the MLS average.
However, most of their shot locations are of high overall value.
The huge xG overperformance we mentioned at the start of this tactical analysis comes from goals scored outside the box.
We can see in the previous chart that there are a lot of shots on target and low-xG goals in their catalogue, which creates the difference between expected goals and actual goals.
Interestingly, they are also the team with the most penalties won so far (10), and they have converted seven of them.
And their main penalty takers?
Rafael Navarro and Đorđe Mihailović.
These two are the main goalscorers of the team, with the latter also being the main creator.
Mihailović has 16 G/A, the most in the team, and 14.22 expected G/A, again, the most in the team.
He has scored 10 goals from 8.6 xG and assisted six from 5.62 xA.
Apart from that, he is the most fouled player in the team and has the most smart passes and deep completions in the team (ninth in the league, 2.04 per 90).
Navarro, on the other hand, is second with 12 G/A and 13.07 xGA.
He has scored 11 goals from 11.56 xG – fourth highest in the league – but also has four second assists (second-most in the league) and the most shots in the team (53).
When it comes to the pure output, he is the main man: most shots from open play and second-highest accuracy in the league (52.83%), most headers in the team with 10, most dribblings in the team, second-most offsides in the league and most touches in the penalty area in the team.
These two are undoubtedly the bread and butter of Colorado Rapids’ output and overall attacking tactics.
Chris Armas Out-of-possession tactical analysis
The final section of our tactical analysis will focus on the out-of-possession mechanisms and statistics to see how Chris Armas has coached the defensive aspects of Colorado Rapids.
At the moment of writing, the team has conceded 38 goals in 25 games and has done so with a total of 32.39 expected goals against, suggesting they have conceded more goals than they should have.
Statistically speaking, Colorado Rapids are far from a defensive juggernaut; so far, they concede 10.55 shots against on average, which is just below the league average of 10.82.
Similarly, they block 2.42 shots per 90 and have managed to block 24.9% of total shots conceded, which, while not a bad return, is still below the MLS average for the 2024 season.
And while Colorado Rapids are not among the teams that face the most shots in the league, their goalkeeper, Steffen, has the sixth-highest shots saved in the league.
Unfortunately, his involvement is statistically still a net negative for the team; he has the third-fewest reflex saves in the league and doesn’t even crack the top 30 in prevented goals with -0.27 prevented goals per 90.
Considering he is a goalkeeper who rarely leaves his line and is also limited on the ball, handball-like reflex saves are crucial for his overall contribution.
When it comes to tactics, Colorado Rapids are not a high-pressing team.
So far in the 2024 MLS season, they have recorded 11.76 PPDA, which is below the league average of 12.8 but still high, and when we pair it up with 4.7 challenge intensity (below the league average of 4.82), we get a team that’s happier and more comfortable sitting in a deep block than they are pushing up high and pressing aggressively.
This can also be seen in the latest visual, which shows us their defensive territory and high regains.
Colorado Rapids tally more defensive duels and interceptions in deeper areas, and this is where they also start their transitions.
Of course, that is not to say that they never press high, but more often than not, they will drop slightly deeper and defend just ahead of their penalty area.
Statistically speaking, they average 53.31 defensive duels per 90, which is still below the league average but with a 61.7% success rate, a figure that exceeds the league average.
Still, with the fifth-most interceptions in the league and sixth-most when it comes to the per 90 metrics (37.32), we can see that the tactics, while not bulletproof, are doing something right.
That said, Colorado Rapids are quite vulnerable in the air, and despite registering a high number of aerial duels, they have the third-lowest success rate in the league with 42.4%.
Structurally, Armas usually opts for a 4-4-2 mid-block that then transitions to a variation of a 4-3-3 once the wide players push up to pressure their markers.
The same happens when Colorado Rapids are higher up the pitch, and they will often do so in that same 4-3-3 shape.
Again, high pressing isn’t their preference, but they will occasionally try to force dangerous turnovers and exploit mistakes in the opposition’s build-up phase.
When it comes to individuals who carry the backline in defensive actions, the experienced Andreas Maxsø stands out in some of the data categories; he is the player with the most successful defensive duels, with a 76.25% success rate, the third-most interceptions in the league, and the most shots blocked on the team (20, third-most in the league, too).
While there are others, it does seem Colorado Rapids’ defence is still something Chris Armas should work on; they are leaking more goals than they should according to the expected values and are not getting the most out of their goalkeeper, both in and out of possession.
Conclusion
Colorado Rapids are an exciting young team that has caught the eye of many in the 2024 MLS season.
Chris Armas, similarly, is someone who is still building his coaching catalogue, and this year’s work is definitely a step forward, both for him and the squad he’s currently managing.
Colorado Rapids are not perfect, but they are proving to be a collective with a high ceiling, which has yet to show their full capabilities.
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