CONCACAF W Gold Cup 2024 Semi-Finalists: A tactical breakdown of the final four – scout report

This February saw the launch of the inaugural CONCACAF W Gold Cup, which has been compared to the European Nations League.

Four non-CONCACAF sides (Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Paraguay) were invited to the competition, but only Brazil remains, and they have been one of the most impressive sides, winning four of four.

Canada came into the tournament looking to be a serious competitor towards the business end of the competition, and they have lived up to their pre-tournament expectations up until now, winning four from four without conceding a goal.

Mexico, who got that crucial group stage, upset over the USWNT to top the group. However, they have impressed in several critical areas and equally remain unbeaten in the competition so far.

The US entered the contest as hosts and pre-tournament favourites. Despite that surprise loss to Mexico, they again find themselves at the business end of the competition, where they can look to add to the legend surrounding the USWNT.

In this tactical analysis and scout report we will provide some analysis of key players, key tactics and key statistics that could prove vital in determining the remainder of this competition.

Brazil

Brazil has been one of the most exciting teams in the competition so far. They have scored 12 goals in four games, including five goals in their previous two outings against Panama and Argentina in the quarter-finals. However, this is not just down to mere chance, with them also achieving an xG of 12.84.

Now, let’s take a look at what enables Brazil to be so exciting in attack. Throughout the competition, they have some iteration of a 3-4-3, either playing with two creative midfielders behind a forward or one creative behind a front two. The fluidity of their attack makes Brazil so dynamic, where they utilise the third-player principle throughout their off-the-ball movement to create sharp, free-flowing attacks.

In this example here in the quarter-finals against Argentina, you can see an example of this off-the-ball movement. The ball is being carried towards the final third by right centre-back Antonia. Once there, she plays a penetrating ball towards Gabi Nunes, who has made a disguised run across the back of the Argentina player. She receives the ball and draws the defender out of the backline. Nunes then drops off the ball to creative midfielder Bia Zaneratto. While this is going on, central midfielder Vitória Yaya has made a third player run off the ball to attack the space vacated by the defender drawn in by Nunes. This enables Vitória to get into a dangerous position in the box, and she plays a ball across the box, which ends in an off-target shot.

This example here shows off the ball movement and fluidity that impressively enables Brazil to create goal-scoring opportunities. Antonia has the ball and passes towards the right flank. Duda Sampaio lets the ball run beside them rather than playing at it acting as a disguise, and then the ball reaches wingback Gabi Portilho on the right flank. Here, with the ball out wide, Sampaio and Vitória’s movement is vital to this attack as when they switch and split, they create the space for Portilho to drive inside where she can play a ball into forward Nunes. Portilho then continues her run looping around Nunes, the key to this play is the patience Nunes shows to play the ball at the right time, when the defender has turned her back on the goal and Portilho is able to get a shot on goal.

Brazil is not only effective in attack but has demonstrated the ability to be aggressive and relentless in the press, particularly in their 1-0 victory over Columbia in the group stage, where they prevented Columbia from building out from their own half for large portions of the game. The scoreline does not actually reflect the dominance Brazil showed in this game. With Columbia controlling the ball for 55.26% of the game, Brazil played an aggressive pressing system and looked to take advantage of quick transitions to catch Columbia off guard and thus obtain an xG of 2.37. With a PPDA of 4.67 against one of the best passing sides in the competition, something we may see more against the more typical powers.

Here, you can clearly see how Brazil are matching the Columbia shape as they look to build up from the back, with forward Zaneratto splitting the field with her pressing angle, forcing the Columbia goalkeeper to play to her left. With both midfielders covered, a poor pass is forced, which falls to the feet of Adriana Leal on the right, who tries to catch the goalkeeper off his line, but the ball sails just over the bar.

It is no wonder that Brazil has remained in the competition to this point and has shown some impressive signs against Argentina and Columbia. However, the biggest question mark will be whether this can translate against the bigger powers that are still left in the competition.

Canada

Canada has also had an impressive start to life in the Gold Cup so far this year, scoring 14 goals and conceding zero. The underlying numbers of xG match up with these figures, creating an xG of 13.52 and conceding an xG of 0.97 across their four games.

Canada has used a similar formation to Brazil, typically deploying a 3-4-3, although they did switch to a back-four system midway through the first half of the game against Costa Rica, which may be a sign of things to come. However, despite these initial similarities, Canada’s style of play is much based around control of the ball and a positional style of play where they look to move the ball around the field at a high tempo and try to create openings with Canada operating a passing rate of 14.1 passes per minute of possession, along with an average possession of 67.39% per game. Now, let’s look at some examples of what this enables them to do in attack.

You can see how Canada moves the ball from side to side to isolate defenders. The ball originates from right centre-back Jade Rose, who plays across the backline, to Vanessa Gilles, who sprays the ball out to left-wing-back Gabrielle Carle, who plays quick ball forwards for Arsenal player Chloe Lacasse to run into the open wide channel. However, she is tracked well by the Costa Rica defender, and with her back to the goal, she opts to play the ball back, where the ball is switched in three passes from left to right before the ball reaches Ashley Lawrence down the right flank. What the switch has done is create an isolated situation for the defender with a disconnect as Costa Rica is forced to work back across the field.

Now, one of the primary reasons Canada can take advantage of these isolated situations is the quality their wingers possess. Canada as a team has a success rate of 58.4% in 1v1 dribble situations, which puts them in second place behind Mexico in the competition. With right winger and competition, current joint top scorer Adriana Leon is averaging 7.15 dribbles per 90, paired with Ashley Lawrence’s 4.85 dribbles per 90. Down the left, however, Chloe Lacasse has averaged 5.04 dribbles per 90 alongside her teammates either Huitema with 4.52 or Olivia Smith’s 6.0. You can see that, unlike other teams who may be reliant on one or two key dribblers, Canada has a balanced attack, making them more difficult to play against as they are less predictable and can beat you in more than one way.

A further aspect that is crucial to Canada’s ability to control the game is the quality of the back three to progress the ball, in particular down the right with Jade Rose, who has an average of 13.24 progressive passes per 90 and 4.24 progressive runs per 90 which makes her the third most effective ball progressor in the competition. Combine this with the progressions of Kadeisha Buchanan at 9.56 progressive passes per 90, Vanessa Gilles at 9.43 and Shelina Zadorsky at 9.52. These three players are integral as they are what enables Canada to penetrate and find those holes in the opposition attacks.

In this example, Rose receives the ball in the wide channel of the Paraguay press. She is then able to drive forward on the ball and engage the defender’s attention, which allows forward Deanne Rose to get in behind and receive a through ball. This gets her into a goalscoring position in the box, where she is able to force the goalkeeper into a save.

Mexico

Mexico have had a mixed Gold Cup campaign, having started relatively slowly in a 0-0 draw with Argentina; however, despite the scoreline, they actually significantly underperformed their xG of 3.16, which suggests the lack of clinical finishing in front of goal. Then came a much more impressive 8-0 victory against the Dominican Republic before their upset of pre-tournament favourite United States 2-0. Then, more recently, a 3-2 victory against Paraguay in the quarter-finals set up a semi-final clash against Brazil.

In these games, Mexico has shown the team’s versatility to play different styles to win games, which could prove vital if they are to push on to reach the final. In their games against Paraguay, Argentina and the Dominican Republic, they demonstrated the ability to control possession, over 55% in each game, and create opportunities through their wide players, particularly Lizbeth Ovalle, down the left flank. However, they also demonstrated the versatility to play without the ball in the victory of the US with only 37.22% possession to obtain a victory in the game, with them relying more on quick and efficient transitions, which would end in a shot no matter the position.

Despite the attacking principles differing throughout the competition, the defensive principles of aggressive zonal marking have been a mainstay throughout the competition. With Mexico completing 66.52 defensive duels per 90 at a success rate of 69.2%, the success rate led to the competition. Their side has a real cohesion and selflessness, which has made it a frustrating side to try and break down.

One key aspect of their success has been captain Rebeca Bernal, who was integral to their win against the US through her defensive role. However, she has also been vital to Mexico in build-up play, with 12.76 progressive passes per 90 minutes, making her the fifth-best progressive passer left in the competition. Combine this with 3.26 progressive runs per 90 minutes, and you have a player who can effectively break down the opposition’s shape.

In this example, Bernal beats her opponent on the inside and can drive through the midfield before clipping a ball in behind for teammate Kiana Palacios to be put through on goal.

In addition to Bernal being integral in both attack and defence, the current form of winger Ovalle could prove vital to any success that Mexico will be eyeing up moving forward. Ovalle is currently the top scorer in the competition with five goals. However, perhaps most impressive about these goals is the range and variety of goals she has scored.

For this goal, Mayra Pelayo-Bernal played the ball from right to left. Ovalle took one touch with the right thigh and then hit an excellent left-footed volley into the bottom corner.

For this goal against the Dominican Republic, the ball was pulled back to Ovalle at the edge of the box, where she could orient herself to hit a left-footed shot into the top corner of the goal.

However, despite looking defensively impressive throughout the competition in their quarter-final against Paraguay, they did show some frailties at set pieces that could potentially be exploited.

Paraguay played a right-footed-out swinging corner from the right side, although seemingly marked well. Paraguay was able to out-compete Mexico due to poor body shape. Mexico had already turned her back on her opponent, which meant she was unable to attack the ball and, as a result, lost the aerial battle.

The second goal comes from a second-wave set piece. Karla Nieto loses track of the Paraguay player in behind, who is able to sneak through on goal and convert.

United States

The US entered the tournament as favourites to take home the inaugural CONCACAF W Gold Cup. With the tournament now reaching the semi-final stage, the USWNT again find themselves at the business end of the competition; however, they haven’t looked as dominant as expected. Having come through resounding victories over the Dominican Republic and Argentina, the expectation was that much of the same would occur against Mexico. However, they lost the game 2-0 and failed to create much despite their 62.78% possession. Despite this loss, they did bounce back with a resounding 3-0 victory over a Colombia side, which is no mean feat.

In the game against Colombia, the US showed the ability to prevent Colombia from ever really getting their possession-based game in rhythm. By operating tight man-marking and winning one-on-one match-ups all over the field, they were regularly able to disrupt Colombia’s possession and prevent significant chances from developing. This could prove vital in a semi-final match-up against Canada, who, as we have already discussed, want to dominate and control the ball.

This is the third goal in action, and Emily Fox puts pressure on Real Madrid forward Linda Caicedo. Fox is able to win the ball back and then launch a dangerous counterattack, playing a ball for Trinity Rodman to run onto. Rodman then plays a low right-footed cross to Jaedyn Shaw, who has made an expertly timed run to get on the end of the cross and make it 3-0.

This goal is a nice illustration of the relentless theme throughout the first half of the quarter-final. Several other high-quality chances came from the press, including the attack that drew the penalty for the opening goal of the game.

The basis of the US side’s success has been on winning one-on-one matchups all over the field; they are able to do this because of the talent they possess throughout their squad, with dynamic dribblers such as Sophia Smith, Margeret Purce, Jaedyn Shaw and Lynn Williams. All of them are in the top ten dribblers by volume in the competition, with 16.45, 9.26, 7.5, and 7.11 dribbles completed per 90, respectively. All this attacking prowess makes the US a dangerous side in wide positions.

Above, Lynn Williams wins her one-on-one matchup with the Dominican Republic defender by driving around the outside with a dynamic burst of speed before playing a ball towards Smith in the middle.

However, despite all this talent, Mexico, in particular, was able to limit the US by trying to compress the space the US had to operate in. With the US being overly reliant on winning duels that they weren’t able to create, they struggled to have much success. It is interesting then how, in the quarter-final game, head coach Twila Kilgore opted to start with Alex Morgan through the middle over arguably the more talented Smith. Morgan is able to link these dangerous attacking weapons together more effectively.

With the ball being launched towards Morgan through the middle, she is able to use her link-up play and flick the ball onto the onrushing Jenna Nighswonger, who is able to convert the opportunity for the side.

Conclusion

As you can see, the semi-final matchups between Canada and the US and Brazil against Mexico should both prove to be interesting encounters.

The first match between a Canadian side that has looked dominant throughout the competition, however, hasn’t faced opposition near the calibre of the US. Meanwhile, the US side may be peaking at just the right time.

In the other semi-final, the exciting, free-flowing Brazil side faces the aggressive and passionate Mexico side, which should prove to be an interesting encounter in itself.

Two very contrasting games but two fascinating battles that we can’t wait for Wednesday evening.