With the United States ready to host the latest iteration of the Copa América, another CONCACAF nation will be looking to right the wrongs of previous tournaments and give a positive account of themselves.
Having qualified for the tournament in 2015 and 2016, Jamaica are yet to score a single goal when competing in the Copa América, losing all 6 of their matches against CONMEBOL opposition.
However, the latest generation of the Reggae Boyz are expected to provide a much more promising account of the island nation, with Icelandic manager Heimir Hallgrímsson elevating the quality of the team since his appointment.
Changes to Jamaica’s recruitment strategies have certainly proved fruitful in achieving short-term goals, having targeted England-based players like Demarai Gray and Michail Antonio in an attempt to qualify for this summer’s tournament over in the States.
An unbeaten run in the CONCACAF Nations League group stages allowed Jamaica to pip recent 2022 World Cup qualifiers Canada to an automatic Copa América berth, eventually earning a 3rd place finish after victory over Panama.
Whilst the upcoming tournament will fill the Jamaican squad with a lot of belief, persisting issues off the pitch pose a considerable threat to their squad morale and attacking threat.
Ever-present star midfielder Leon Bailey was disciplined earlier in the year and omitted from the squad which secured qualification, leading to scathing criticism towards the country’s footballing federation, leaving the Aston Villa player’s availability for this summer up in the air.
Alongside the likes of Michail Antonio, who missed crucial international matches after personally withdrawing from selection, Hallgrímsson has been unable to build as much cohesion with limited opportunity to utilise his full arsenal.
This tactical analysis will begin to highlight how Jamaica will aim to be effective both in and out of possession, with Hallgrímsson’s tactics aiming to remain resolute in the face of their toughest opposition yet.
Our analysis will aim to discuss which individual players can be the game-changing catalysts, whether they have already proven their worth or may look at this year’s Copa América as a huge opportunity to breakout on the continental stage.
Predicted Starting XI
Throughout Jamaica’s CONCACAF Nations League campaign, we witnessed Hallgrímsson tinker with their starting lineup and initial formation, with a notable switch from a traditional 4-4-2 towards a more dynamic 3-4-3.
This alteration sacrificed a recognised number 9 in order to provide more defensive stability, something which almost allowed them to prosper against the USA, withstanding their attacking onslaught until a heartbreaking equaliser in second-half stoppage time.
Veteran goalkeeper and MLS star Andre Blake will be expected to lead this Jamaican side from between the sticks, standing out as one of the most crucial elements of Jamaica’s defensive structure.
Jahmali Waite has the opportunity to deputise for the experienced keeper should Blake be unable to overcome a knee injury which has caused him issues over the past month.
Jamaica’s three-man central defensive lineup can be expected to consist of Di’Shon Bernard, Michale Hector, and Joel Latibeaudiere, three players who have plied their trade in the second and third tiers of English football.
Latibeaudiere, in particular, offers a unique player profile for Hallgrímsson to utilise, having been deployed in central midfield in Jamaica’s 4-4-2.
However, from wide centre-back, he represents an important ball progressor with his passing range and impressive carrying ability.
Onto the midfield, and the emergence of right wing-back Dexter Lembikisa has been a key reason for Hallgrímsson placing trust in a tactical formation change, with him and Gregory Leigh on the opposite flank scoring key goals in recent matches.
Kasey Palmer and Damion Lowe will be expected to form a partnership through the middle, supported by a mixture of youth and experience on the bench, with 19-year-old Karoy Anderson impressive in his cameo appearances.
Jamaica’s brightest spark would have to be their attacking firepower, but with Leon Bailey expected to be absent this summer, it would appear that Hallgrímsson will have a squad selection headache.
For a three-man forward line, we would expect the Icelandic manager to reward those who were most prolific and effective throughout the Nations League, therefore selecting Demarai Gray and Bobby Decordova-Reid on the wings with Shemar Nicholson through the middle.
Nicholson’s 0.90 goals per 90 make him a huge attacking threat in his own right, scoring a crucial brace in Toronto to conquer Canada.
Despite missing crucial international camps due to personal issues and bouts of injury, the presence of Michail Antonio from the bench will provide the Reggae Boyz with another dimension to their play in the final third.
It would appear that the key to success for Hallgrímsson and Jamaica would have to be a varied squad profile with experienced leaders ready to tackle some of the world’s toughest opposition, along with an injection of youthful ambition prepared to right the wrongs of previous tournaments.
Hallgrímsson’s ability to lure dual-nationality players towards the Reggae Boyz has allowed them to take advantage of Premier League talent to once again become one of the strongest sides within CONCACAF- but will their CONMEBOL opponents prove to be a step too far?
Attacking phase
Jamaica’s attacking style involves being incredibly direct, looking to play long balls into the final third for their physical centre forwards to bring down and engage their surrounding forwards.
However, Jamaica are often ineffective when having large amounts of possession, partially because they lack an expert ball-handler who can regularly bridge the play between defence and attack.
An average ball possession statistic of 45.8% stands out as particularly low for one of the strongest nations in their confederation.
Initial distribution can either be short towards the likes of Hector and Latibeaudiere, or alternatively, Andre Blake can look to bypass the midfield and defensive lines altogether.
As previously mentioned, Latibeaudiere’s familiarity with playing in a more defensive midfield role allows him to position himself a fraction higher when operating in the back three.
This staggered structure gives Jamaica an alternate passing outlet to utilise when building out from the back, often resulting in the Coventry defender breaking through the lines and connecting with the midfield.
Jamaica’s usage of the flanks is also significant to their attacking success, with the wingbacks having an essential connection with the wingers.
When looking at a direct influence in the final third, both Leigh and Lembikisa have contributed with crucial goals against the USA and Panama, respectively.
Leigh’s overlapping movement allowed him to take advantage of space vacated by Cephas, who had darted into the centre of the box, escaping defensive pressure and heading Jamaica in front early on.
Ahead of a huge tournament this summer, Hallgrímsson will be concerned by Jamaica’s inconsistency when it comes to a clear creative game plan.
Throughout qualifying, the Reggae Boyz ranked dead last for passing accuracy into the final third (58%) and a disappointing 78.5% passing accuracy altogether (15th from all 16 teams in the Nations League). Their inability to break into the opposition’s penalty area is equally as distressing, with Jamaica only able to record 15.38 penalty area touches per 90- less than the USA (24.56) and Mexico (18.73) they will face in their opening match.
However, one beacon of hope would be that Jamaica have been impressive when carrying the ball forward and attacking defenders in 1v1 scenarios, ranking 2nd in the CONCACAF with 58.8% dribble success.
Jamaica have also shown that they can be extremely clinical when taking advantage of their limited action within the opponent’s final third, ranking within the 94th percentile for xG per shot.
With the island nation expected to have a minimal share of possession in the group stage, their ability to terrorise defences with smart dribbling will be crucial in earning vital points and getting into the knockout phase.
Defensive phase
When Jamaica are out of possession, their natural 3-4-3 shape allows them to perform a seamless switch towards a more resolute 5-4-1, with the sets of wing backs and wingers dropping deeper into an effective low block.
Their press usually comes out of a similar system, with both Jamal Lowe and Shamar Nicholson playing as the lone striker with enough mobility to initiate the press from the front.
Should Jamaica look to be more aggressive in these scenarios, we have seen one of the wingers come centrally to create a 5-3-2, with Demarai Gray being one of the candidates to use his speed and explosiveness to become the first point of resistance for Jamaica.
Since the appointment of Hallgrímsson, the Icelandic manager has represented an overall increase in defensive stability, which has been imperative to their achievements in qualifying for this year’s Copa América.
Their ability to remain resilient, see off Canada over two legs, and come agonisingly close to beating the USA to nil indicates an increase in quality across the pitch.
However, some metrics will raise alarm bells ahead of some tricky fixtures in the Copa América group stage.
Jamaica scored 5.2 for challenge intensity throughout the Nations League, which aims to calculate the number of duels, tackles and interceptions per minute of opponent possession, making them one of the more massive teams in the confederation (12th out of 16).
A PPDA score of 10.34 certainly isn’t too bad, but it stands as much weaker than Jamaica’s closest rivals from North America.
Transitions
Jamaica’s ability to attack in transition is probably their most profitable method of attack.
They use the speed of their forwards to devastating effect because of their compact shape when out of possession.
Jamaica’s key strength would be their ability to sit behind the ball and soak up pressure, ready to launch a swift counter once possession has been regained.
Their pressing when out of possession has received mixed outcomes, being successful against weaker sides but leaving them extremely vulnerable in transition against the stronger nations.
In their Nations League semi-final defeat to the USA, Jamaica were able to prevent an equalising goal for large proportions of the match, waiting for the Americans to pass between the lines and picking them off to attack space in transition.
However, when the Jamaican press was too aggressive, the United States quickly bypassed the high pressing with nice interchanging passing moves towards the flanks.
Jamaica were quickly exposed with Antonee Robinson able to find huge amounts of space within the centre of the pitch to switch play and hurt the Reggae Boyz.
However, Jamaica’s high-pressing worked wonders when clawing their way back into the tie with Canada, pressing out of the 4-1-4-1.
Damion Lowe was able to step up nicely and dispossess Eustaquio with his back to play.
This allowed Nicholson to spring onto the loose ball before smashing past Borjan to equalise for Jamaica, highlighting just how effective they can be when recovering within the mid-to-final thirds.
For Jamaica, the key decision-making regarding the intensity of their press depending on opposition and game state will be imperative to have a successful summer.
Forwards
With Leon Bailey’s availability yet to be announced, Hallgrímsson will have faith in his attacking arsenal, spearheaded by Clermont Foot’s Shemar Nicholson.
Whilst Jamaica have indeed struggled when it comes to chance creation and getting the ball into the final third, their ability to threaten on the counter-attack will give them hope of a surprise result within the group stage.
Jamaica’s shift towards the 3-4-3 gives them a wider scope for attacking outlets within the final third, with both Leigh and Lembikisa providing the width to allow Gray and Decordova-Reid to threaten the half-spaces.
However, should Jamaica be in a losing position and in search of a goal, in-game alterations back to a 4-4-2 would be pretty seamless, allowing Nicholson or Antonio to combine with a more mobile shadow striker like Jamal Lowe, who can stretch defences with his threat in behind.
Midfielders
The midfield is probably the weakest point of this Jamaican side, and the unit could become overrun when competing against elite midfield generals like Moisés Caicedo and Edson Álvarez in the groups.
Issues have been raised when looking at the positioning of the supposed double-pivot, often being too far apart and becoming bypassed as a result.
From Blake’s initial distribution into the middle third against Canada, we see Ismael Kone bring the ball down with ease with limited Jamaican pressure, having the opportunity to distribute to Eustaquio or Buchanan easily because of Latibeaudiere’s starting position.
Defenders
A resilient defence will be key for a Jamaican side who have conceded in their six matches when competing in the Copa América.
The hopeful return of both Amari’i Bell and Ethan Pinnock will be a welcome sight to Hallgrímsson, providing his team with key defensive figures moulded by seasons within England’s top flight.
Pinnock, in particular, aims to play the creative role to perfection, looking to distribute to the final third after his 7.3 successful long balls per 90 in the CONCACAF Nations League.
Key Player
Since he decided to switch allegiances and represent the Reggae Boyz permanently, Demarai Gray has represented the attacking dynamo that Jamaica have been crying out for.
His attacking versatility sees him lined up both out wide on the left wing and additionally as the number 10, dropping between the lines to collect the ball.
Gray is often seen to be the man igniting attacking sequences in a side that has lacked a ball-dominant attacker in Bailey’s absence, especially when running at defences in transition.
Gray stood out as Jamaica’s key orchestrator in the CONCACAF Nations League, successfully creating five big chances, leaving him tied with Honduras’ Luis Palma at the top of the charts.
His ability to put the ball in the net also cannot be understated, with Gray scoring 0.55 goals per 90, second to Nicholson for Hallgrímsson’s team.
With Gray collecting an unfortunate minor injury as his season with Al-Ettifaq drew to a close, fans of the Reggae Boyz will be eagerly anticipating seeing him return to full fitness this summer.
Tournament prediction
When it comes to predicting how Jamaica will finish in the Copa América, it would seem as though the sides in their group are possibly a bit too strong to overcome.
The qualities of both Mexico and Ecuador look to target the glaring weaknesses of the Reggae Boyz, with their match against Venezuela standing out as the one which may be on more of a level playing field.
However, things are not totally bleak for Jamaica, who will be hopeful that their developing squad quality can aim to score their first-ever points in the competition history.
Whilst their previous encounter with Mexico in the Gold Cup ended in a 3-0 defeat, a much more familiar opponent will fill them with confidence as they look to find victory in their opening match.
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