Copa America 2024 Tactical Preview: Paraguay

In the past two Copa America competitions, Paraguay have reached the quarter-final stage.

However, since then, Paraguay have failed to qualify for the 2022 World Cup.

Coming into this competition, Paraguay have had mixed success, with the side only scoring three goals in the past seven games, registering two wins, two draws, and three losses.

In this tactical analysis, we break down the key players and tactics that Paraguay have used this season.

This scout report will also break down how they play within the three primary phases of the game (attacking, defensive, and transitions).

We will also look at the players who will likely make the trip to the US and some who could significantly impact Paraguay’s ability to succeed.

Predicted Starting XI

Throughout the past 12 months, Paraguay head coach Daniel Garnero has used several formations, with a 4-2-3-1 being used 21% of the time and a 4-3-3 15% of the time.

As such, we decided to base our predictions on using a 4-2-3-1 shape.

We had a couple of options in goal; however, we went with Carlos Cornerol, who plays in goal regularly for NY Red Bulls in the MLS and has played the majority of minutes in the past year for Costa Rica.

In front of Coronel, we went with Matías Espinoza at left back and Robert Rojas at right back.

Then, as the right centre-back, we have Gustavo Gómez, starting as captain of the national side and a real leader on the field.

Then comes who to partner Gómez with, with Omar Alderete, Fabián Balbuena, and Júnior Alonso all having played at centre-back over the past twelve months.

However, we went with Fabián Balbuena to partner Gómez as we have seen this pairing more commonly than any other combination throughout qualification.

Then comes the midfield pairing of Andrés Cubas and Mathías Villasanti, who have been a mainstay in the Paraguay side for the past twelve months.

Then comes the forwards for Paraguay.

We have Miguel Almirón starting on the right wing despite struggling to ever reach the form of 2022/23 with Eddie Howe‘s Newcastle this term.

Then, on the left wing, we have Julio Enciso starting, having again played a significant role with Brighton this season.

Then comes the centre-forward and central attacking midfielder.

We went with Antonio Sanabria as the attacking midfielder behind Adam Bareiro.

We went with this as we felt they complement each other nicely.

Attacking Phase

In open play, Paraguay is unlikely to dominate the ball.

They have averaged 45.5% possession throughout the past year and only controlled the ball against Bolivia and Peru.

As such, they average one of the lowest possession numbers in Copa America this term.

The side largely looks to play quick football that quickly progresses the ball up the field.

Let’s take a look at how that might look in practice.

Here, you can see a typical general shape from Paraguay.

Cubas drops deep to act as the link between defence and midfield, creating a back three.

Then, the two full-backs hold the width for the team, with these two players being the only two players playing outside the Colombia shape.

Centrally, Villasanti is supported by Rojas or, typically, Almirón, dropping into the midfield to support the attack, creating a 3-4-3 shape.

When the ball is advanced into the final third, the shape changes again.

Paraguay are looking to play a narrow shape, with the players rotating centrally to try and find space in the opposition’s shape.

Here is an example of how Paraguay can look to break down the opposition by playing a narrow shape with a disorganised structure, creating disruption in the opposition’s defence and forcing opponents into making decisions.

The only players with strict positional responsibilities are the two full-backs who hold their width and the central defenders who remain deep to prevent counterattacks and offer the option to reset.

The centre-forward always occupies a central position on the opposition’s defensive line, creating the height for the Paraguay side.

Then in the midfield, there is no clear structure with central midfielder Villasanti pulling wide, Cubas in the middle, and Almirón dropping deep on the right side, which creates space for Paraguay’s number ten Romero between the lines.

These kinds of rotations where Paraguay can find teammates in space are common when Paraguay can keep possession of the ball for long periods of time.

However, we have already identified that Paraguay generally play without keeping the ball for long periods of time.

We will look at how they counterattack later in this scout report.

However, we will now look at Paraguay’s more direct approach to attack.

Here, Villasanti picks up the ball in midfield and plays a ball in behind the Colombian back line for left winger Sosa to run onto.

This pulls the Colombian central defender out wide and isolates him in one-on-one situations, which the Paraguay player is able to win, putting him through on goal.

This is particularly dangerous as Paraguay have Premier League quality wide play from Brighton winger Enciso and Newcastle’s Miguel Almirón.

If they regularly isolate defenders in wide positions, Paraguay could capitalise on their speed.

As an attacking side, Paraguay have struggled over the past year, scoring only one goal in the six World Cup 2026 qualifying games they have played so far.

This is despite averaging 0.91 xG per 90 throughout qualification to date.

This is largely due to the significant number of shots Paraguay is taking from range.

As a result, they have averaged 0.08 xG per shot over the 11.5 shots per 90 they are averaging.

Here, you can see the shots Paraguay have taken throughout qualification.

The majority of the shots are taken from the edge of the box or further out than that, which plays a large part in their struggles to score goals.

Defensive Phase

Having looked at how Paraguay plays in attack, let’s now take a look at how they look to defend the ball.

Paraguay have conceded an average xGA of 1.08 per 90 throughout the past year, resulting in them conceding an average of 0.75 goals per game.

As a team, they look to compete in a high number of defensive duels, averaging 65.47 defensive duels per 90 at a success rate of 63%; only Uruguay and Bolivia have averaged more defensive duels per 90 in CONMEBOL World Cup qualification.

Paraguay are set up in a 4-4-2 mid-block shape.

The central midfield looks aggressive, stepping up and pressing the ball.

In addition, when the ball is in the centre of the field, Paraguay will look to play narrow and force their opponents wide.

Here you can see the Paraguay defensive shape.

You can see the two banks of four.

Within this example, the right side advanced their defensive lines so that they could press the ball.

Also, note how, in the midfield, Villasanti is marking the Colombia midfield player.

Additionally, Cubas is marking the midfielder behind him, but a separation has been created as the central midfield wants to remain connected.

Here is the previous image rolled eighteen seconds on.

This time, the ball is central.

Note how the two wide midfielders are now playing narrow and trying to force Colombia out wide and compress the space centrally.

Again, you can still see the two banks of four creating the 4-4-2 shape.

Another critical aspect of the Paraguay defensive principles is their ability to switch from a mid-block to an aggressive pressing shape.

When opponents begin to play the ball backwards, typically, the wide players, such as the tireless worker Almirón, will look to chase down the ball, put pressure on it, and force a long ball towards the Paraguay central defenders.

Here, Bolivia play a backward pass, which triggers left winger Sosa to jam in off the blind side of the defender.

He is able to win the ball back in a dangerous position for Paraguay and is through one-on-one with the goalkeeper; however, he is unable to convert the opportunity.

In addition to this low block shape, another vital strength for Paraguay is their aerial ability, particularly at centre-back, which is particularly important when defending the box.

This can be illustrated by Gustavo Gómez, Alderete and Balbuena, who are all amongst the top defensive performers in terms of aerial duels in CONMEBOL.

Alderete leads all defenders averaging 2.7 headers in their own box per 90 at 55.56%, while Gómez averages 1.2 headers in their own box per 90 at 62.5% and Balbuena 5.13 total headers per 90 at a success rate of 64.7%.

Here, you can see Paraguay’s deep defensive shape.

What is clear is the number of Colombian players in the box: three, to Paraguay players: five.

As such, the sheer number advantage of Paraguay will create an advantage.

However, add in the strength of the Paraguay players in aerial duels, and it is clear to see how Paraguay can be difficult to break down in their own box.

Transitions

A crucial part of the Paraguay game plan is to use transitions, particularly defence-attack transitions, to take advantage of their talented ball carriers, Almirón and Enciso and put them in positions to run in open space.

When Paraguay win the ball back, they look to get the ball forward as quickly as possible.

They will also have several dynamic runs looking to make runs behind the opposition’s backline.

Here, you can see Paraguay have just won the ball back and quickly looks to play the ball forward to centre-forward Bareiro.

What you can instantly see is running beyond Bareiro is Almirón and Sosa; what is also interesting about the Paraguay forwards is that they aren’t necessarily looking to stretch the opposition in terms of width, but the primary focus is to stretch them vertically.

As the ball comes into Bareiro, he tries to flick it onto Almirón.

However, the ball is unable to find its mark, and Almirón is pulled out wide.

What is interesting is that from this position, again, Bareiro looks to challenge the Bolivian back line and run in behind.

However, Almirón cuts inside onto his favoured left foot and shoots from range instead.

Having looked at Paraguay in defence-attack transition and highlighted how it is a vital component to their success this season.

Let’s now look at how they cope in the attack-defence transition and are able to protect themselves against counterattacks when they do have sustained periods of possession.

Paraguay tend to operate in a 2-4 shape.

However, as we discussed earlier, the midfield has the flexibility to roam and rotate, so space can open up centrally on the counterattack, as Colombia can demonstrate here.

Forwards

Now, let’s take a more in-depth look at some of the forward options available to Paraguay this summer.

We will start with Sanabria, who plays in Serie A for Torino as a centre-forward, attacking midfielder and winger.

He had a difficult season with Torino, where he scored only five goals and made no assists across the 2299 minutes he played this season.

In addition to Sanabria, we have Adam Bareiro, who is a typical centre-forward option, although again has struggled to find form for San Lorenzo coming into the competition this summer.

In addition to these two, Paraguay have a few alternate options, such as Ramon Sosa.

Sosa is a right-footed winger who wants to cut in from the left wing and has demonstrated an aptitude for scoring and creating goals so far this season.

There is also Ángel Romero, a right-footed winger who plays for Corinthians in Brazil.

Romero often plays on the right side; however, they can also play as a centre-forward through the middle.

In addition to Romero, there is Gabriel Ávalos, a centre-forward who plays for Independiente in Argentina.

Ávalos is a typical right-footed focal point centre-forward who has shown inconsistent levels of form over the past 12 months.

Additional options that Paraguay could go with are Óscar Cardozo who is now 41 and could be an option to bring to the tournament to offer his wealth of experience.

Alternatively in the past twelve months, Paraguay have also called up Alex Arce from LDU Quito, Carlos González from Club Tijuana, Robert Morales from Toluca and Héctor Villalba from Libertad.

Midfielders

Now, let’s take a look at some of Paraguay’s midfield options.

Cubas is a deep midfielder who plays for Vancouver Whitecaps in the MLS.

Cubas has typically been paired with Villasanti.

Villasanti can be effective at both ends of the field and create goalscoring opportunities around the box.

Then comes probably Paraguay’s most well-known players, Almirón and Enciso, both dynamic dribbling wingers who want to take on opponents and drive forwards in attack.

Their ability to carry Paraguay forward on the counterattack will be vital to the team in transition.

Then comes the alternate options that Paraguay possesses.

With Alejandro Gamarra, they have a creative midfielder with the versatility to play as an attacking midfielder, winger or centre-forward.

Álvaro Campuzano is a tall, strong defensive midfielder who plays in Paraguay for Libertad, who could offer them more solidity in the centre of midfield should they revert to a 4-3-3 shape.

Then you have Matías Rojas, a left-footed deep midfielder playing for Inter Miami who has the passing range to potentially unlock defences for Paraguay.

Finally, you have Richard Sánchez, who plays in Mexico for America.

Sánchez is a right-footed midfielder who can be effective at both ends of the field and has the technical quality to create goal-scoring opportunities in the final third.

Defenders

Having looked at the forwards and attackers, it’s time to look at the defensive options for Los Guaraníes.

Let’s start off with the full-backs; at left-back, Paraguay have Matías Espinoza, who plays for Libertad in Paraguay.

Then as right-back options, Paraguay have Robert Rojas, the 28-year-old right-back who plays in Brazil for Vasco de Gama.

Additionally, Paraguay will likely bring Juan Cáceres, who is a right-back who plays for Lanus in Argentina.

Then comes perhaps Paraguay’s strongest position in the squad, or at least the position with the most depth: centre-back.

We’ll start with the captain Gustavo Gómez, who will likely start at centre-back, with Gómez the most experienced active Paraguayan player who has amassed 72 international caps.

Then Paraguay also have Omar Alderete, a left-footed centre-back who plays in Spain for Getafe.

There is also Fabián Balbuena, the thirty-two-year-old centre-back who plays in Russia for Dynamo Moscow.

Also playing in Russia is Krasnodar’s left-footed centre-back Júnior Alonso, who offers more solidity in this area.

Then, to cap off the defensive options for Paraguay, there is Roberto Fernández, a young left-footed centre-back who plays for Dynamo Moscow.

However, Fernández is still yet to make his full senior international debut despite being included in the last squad.

Key Player

One of the keys to Paraguay’s summer success will be their ability to create goal-scoring opportunities, particularly on the counterattack.

In the past Paraguay have been reliant on the ability of Miguel Almirón however, now with Julio Enciso they can share the load between two genuine high-end ball carriers.

Despite it being a difficult season for Enciso, only amassing 480 minutes across the season (hence why we have used a radar from 2022/23 season to present our data for him), under Roberto de Zerbi this term, Enciso has been averaging 6.47 dribbles per 90 minutes in the Premier League, at a success rate of 65%.

In addition to Enciso being able to dribble and beat opponents, Enciso has demonstrated the ability to make progressive runs, averaging 4.05 progressive runs per 90.

This will all be vital as Paraguay look to progress the ball on the counterattack.

Not only has Enciso been able to carry the ball forward for Brighton but he has also demonstrated the ability to be creative after averaging 0.44 xA per 90.

He also averages 3.08 passes into the box per 90.

Tournament Prediction

Paraguay are in a difficult group with Colombia, Brazil, and Costa Rica.

So, it’s going to be difficult to match their past two Copa America campaigns, where they reached the quarter-final stage.

We have Paraguay narrowly missing out on qualification to the knockout stage, with Brazil likely group winners, followed by Colombia.

However, Paraguay certainly possesses the quality to cause an upset or two and sneak through to the knockout stages.