Saturday evening’s meeting in Seville marks the tantalising crescendo of Spain’s most prestigious cup competition, with both sides believing they have a real shot of winning it all. Having both overcome troublesome paths to the final, Athletic Club and Mallorca will take centre stage as they put aside their differing objectives in LaLiga to battle it out for long-awaited silverware. Despite their historic acclaim and respect across Europe, Athletic Club will look to overcome their nerves and put to bed their run of 6 successive final defeats after their domestic double in 1983/84. Mallorca is happily seen as the underdogs, with focus placed upon Saturday’s final, but the goal of remaining in the top flight is a more pressing matter in the back of their minds.
Ernesto Valverde’s Athletic Club have hit form at just the right time, sitting fourth in LaLiga and on their way to returning back to the highest level of European football should their positive performances continue. Their electricity in the attacking phase has propelled them back into the Copa Del Rey final, with incredible scoring displays against both Barcelona and Atletico Madrid.
Despite being victorious more recently, winning the tournament in 2003, Mallorca approach the game riding a wave of positive momentum crafted by Mexican manager, Javier Aguirre, who has culminated a stout defensive mentality well suited towards knockout football. After possessing the psychological edge in a penalty shootout victory against Real Sociedad, Mallorca will look to harness their collective identity and stifle Valverde’s fierce offensive onslaught.
This tactical analysis will begin to preview what you can expect from these two sides heading into an eagerly awaited final at La Cartuja. Our analysis will look to highlight which avenues of attack can be profitable for both sides, with Athletic having gotten the better of their opposition earlier in the year with their collective tactics.
Predicted lineups
Athletic Club
When it comes to Athletic Club, one of the key features and positive aspects of Valverde’s side would have to be their consistency and solidity throughout the line-up. The crucial spine of their 4-2-3-1 setup allows them to flourish in the final third whilst remaining compact and reactive to moments of threat from the opposition. Second-choice goalkeeper Julen Agirrezabala is expected to start between the posts, protected by a tried and tested defensive line of Lekue, Paredes, Vivian and club captain Óscar de Marcos. A double pivot formed of Prados and de Galaretta will provide balance and certainly create interesting talking points, with the latter facing his former side after leaving as a free agent this past summer. The dynamism of Atheltic’s attack will be provided by their attacking quartet of Iñaki, Nico, Sancet and Guruzeta. The only real contentious choice would revolve around Athletic’s young starlet Nico Williams, with his fitness in question having been omitted from Valverde’s squad in their recent trip to Real Madrid. Should Nico not be ready to start, we can expect Berenguer to deputise nicely in his absence, having impressed when given the opportunity earlier in the year with Iñaki playing in the African Cup of Nations.
Mallorca
On the other side of the pitch, we will expect to see Javier Aguirre’s Mallorca side deploying their familiar 5-3-2 setup, with focus placed upon their deeper defensive line, aiming to reduce space in behind for Athletic’s explosive forwards to exploit. Much like their opposition, second-string goalkeeper Dominik Greif is expected to keep his place for the final, having earned his spot with a crucial penalty save in normal time against Real Sociedad. Mallorca’s 5-man defence comprises Copete, Nastasic and captain Antonio Raíllo as the three central defenders. Giovanni González will look to offer balance as the right wing-back, with a choice between the experienced Jaume Costa and Toni Lato on the opposite flank. Despite their versatility and depth in midfield, Mallorca could deploy Samu as the defensive-minded midfielder, with Darder and Rodriguez afforded the opportunity to roam forward. Their strike force of Muriqi and Larin will be key due to their effective partnership and ability to bring each other into play while utilising their physical prowess.
Terrors in transition
In a tightly contested cup final, it is often the work done out of possession and the ability to capitalise on momentary errors which can turn the tides towards one of the two teams. Athletic Club will undoubtedly feel as though this is an avenue which they could exploit, especially when looking to draw Mallorca out of their low block. Valverde’s side has been characterised as an important combination of combative and relentless, pertaining to their ability to regain possession quickly and become devastating on the counterattack. Athletic Club ranks number 1 in LaLiga for high turnovers with 301, indicative of their successful pressing efforts combined with a PPDA of 11.3. However, the most impressive aspect of these figures would have to be the fact that they also hold the 4th most shot-ending high regains with 41, 8 of which have directly resulted in crucial goals scored.
Utilising the quickness and explosivity of both Williams brothers will be incredibly important when looking to combat the extra defensive bodies that Mallorca possess. We know that both Iñaki and Nico are comfortable when coming inside the pitch, but their ability to hold width and stretch the Mallorca defensive line will be crucial in allowing the likes of Sancet and Guruzeta to have space in and around the penalty area.
Whilst there are similarities when observing the style of the two finalists in transition, Mallorca are much more ineffective when we look at their attacking output when winning the ball high. Compared to their opponents, Mallorca ranks only 18th for high turnovers despite a comparable PPDA OF 12.1. When they do regain possession, they lack the technical incisiveness to make the most of their opportunities with only 24 shot-ending turnovers (19th best) and consequently failing to find the back of the net.
Mallorca’s method of attack
For all their defensive solidity at times, the general consensus surrounding Mallorca’s attacking play is one of the reasons why their standing in LaLiga has been so bleak this season. Having only scored 25 goals from 32.4 xG, they have been left wanting in front of goal, but their striking partnership will look to impose their physical attributes in order to propel the underdogs to cup glory on Saturday.
With their 5-3-2 being inherently negative and more focused on keeping goals out at the other end, the combination of Larin and Muriqi has been a bright spark in an otherwise disappointing season when it comes to scoring. Mallorca look to initially distribute to the flanks, allowing their wide central defenders or wing backs to be the impactful players responsible for ball progression. They have been able to build play through central areas via interchanging movements and combinations between the technical central midfield players, with the likes of Samu becoming more of an anchor to protect against being weak on the counterattack. However, ahead of the final, it can be suggested that their long balls may be more profitable.
Mallorca often leans upon the verticality of their forwards with direct long balls, allowing both Muriqi and Larin to hold up play and bring others into the game. The two possess an important offensive connection, often finely tuned as we observe one of the forwards flicking the ball on for the other to run beyond the defensive line to latch onto.
Their positioning when running the channels is also essential to causing a defensive headache for Athletic Club, as the movements of Muriqi and Larin wider create the opportunity for Mallorca’s number eights to move between the central defenders and offer another outlet in the final third, something which has proven to hurt those in a 4-man defence. As Javier Aguirre wants his wing-backs to be incredibly advanced in possession, the movements to shift the defenders across towards the flank occupied by the ball carrier create further space for the wing-back on the opposite side to penetrate the area and often find themselves unmarked.
Learning from previous encounters
Having faced off twice already in LaLiga, both sides will look to take insights from their previous encounters. An early affair in Palma saw a stout defensive performance from the home side result in a goalless draw, but Mallorca were much less fortunate in San Mamés. A 4-0 victory for Valverde’s side was comfortable in nature, but Mallorca were the creators of their own downfall due to their vulnerability from set pieces.
Mallorca’s defensive weakness from dead-ball scenarios has resulted in the 3rd highest expected goals against in LaLiga this season, having conceded 9.20 xGA and a joint 2nd highest 10 goals in total. This has resulted in set pieces contributing to just under a quarter of their total goals conceded this season (0.24), only second to Real Sociedad. Mallorca succumbed to crucial goals against Athletic, allowing themselves to fall to an early 2-0 lead as a result of poor defensive communication and inability to deal with the danger.
Whilst credit can also be placed upon the shoulders of Nico Williams, with the fine technical ability to place the ball in dangerous areas, the calamitous marking from Mallorca allowed inventive Athletic Club play to be finished with relative ease. With Athletic in the ascendency, Mallorca were forced out of their comfortable shape and Valverde’s team were happy to capitalise on a side which has struggled to break down their opposition. This has been a recurring feature of their play this season, which has proven costly, considering their defensive efforts can be so resolute from open play when forming the proper structure. In a match as critical as this one, will we see them learn their lesson, or shall we come to expect Atheltic to use this as another key exploit they have in their arsenal?
Conclusion
The culmination of two incredible cup journeys will be decided in Seville this Saturday, with an interesting tactical encounter ready to stir further drama and moments of inspiration. Whilst Athletic Club can certainly be considered favourites due to their impressive showing this campaign, Mallorca have displayed just how resilient they can be in the knockout rounds — with a side well suited to cup success. Mallorca will have to weather the storm and make use of their minimal chances, but will the Athletic onslaught prove to be too much for Aguirre’s men?
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