Football fans love a good story about a player working their way up the leagues to go on to play in the Championship and the Premier League. We’ve seen countless instances of players honing their craft in EFL League One and Two before earning a move higher up the footballing ladder. Names like Ivan Toney, Ben Whiteman, Billy Sharp, Jamie Vardy – the list goes on! In the most recent transfer window, Championship promotion contenders Ipswich Town snapped up AFC Wimbledon striker Ali Al-Hamadi after the 21-year-old had an incredible first half of the season in front of goal.
This data analysis will look to highlight several young attack-minded players from League One and Two whose statistics suggest a potential to play in a higher league in the future. The analysis will use key data metrics to pinpoint which attacking midfielders, wingers, and centre forwards have shone so far this season.
Criteria
This data analysis will consider players aged 23 and under in the aforementioned positions, with players having featured for a minimum of 700 minutes in league competition. Additionally, players who are at a League One/Two club on loan from a Premier League/Championship will be included, as any standout loanees will undoubtedly be looking to play at a higher level next season. Each section of analysis will include 20 players (10 from League One and 10 from League Two), with selection based on a key metric relevant to the position.
Attacking midfielders
This first segment of analysis will highlight the central midfielders in League One and Two who have displayed a strong attacking quality. While most of these players are, by trade, attacking midfielders, there are some included that play deeper midfield roles in their club’s tactics but have been included due to the data suggesting an attacking quality in the base metric. The base metric for this segment is key passes – we selected the top 20 central midfielders from League One and Two (highest 10 ranked in each league) aged U23 in key passes per 90. ‘Key passes’ was the selected metric to gather the group of players as it displays creativity and attacking consistency – essential traits for any attacking midfielder.
Straight away, one name stands out, and it’s Swindon Town midfielder Dawson Devoy, who is currently on loan from fellow League Two outfit MK Dons. Devoy appeared 10 times in the league this season for his parent club prior to his move in January and has featured five times in a Swindon shirt. The Irish 22-year-old has posted an incredible average of 0.82 key passes per 90 (data taken from appearances for both clubs in League Two this season), which suggests a serious ability to pick out important and dangerous passes in attacking phases.
There are a few other noteworthy names within this metric – names such as Louie Watson of Charlton Athletic (0.62 key passes per 90), Tranmere Rovers’ Reece McAlear (0.62), Terry Devlin of Portsmouth (0.61), and Bolton Wanderers player George Thomason (0.58). Posting numbers like this over the course of a season can be indicators of creative players with great technical capabilities.
Creating goals/goalscoring chances is important for a midfielder, especially those who play a more attacking role. The U23 central midfielder with the most assists this season across League One and League Two is Harrogate Town’s attacking midfielder Matty Daly, currently with eight assists to his name. With this in mind, it comes as no surprise that he has the higher assists per 90 rate within this group (0.34), although his xA is significantly lower than his assist rate, interestingly. Derby County’s Max Bird falls into a similar category as Daly in terms of having a high assist rate with a low xA per 90.
Players with promising assist rates and high xA all show signs of being dangerous in a creative regard; players like Louie Watson (0.18 assists per 90, 0.25 xA per 90), Walsall’s Ross Tierney (on loan from Motherwell – 0.18 assists per 90, 0.22 xA per 90), and Blackpool’s Karamoko Dembélé (on loan from Ligue 1 club Brest – 0.21 assists per 90, 0.2 xA per 90). Having a high xA is a sign of a player being able to carve out chances for teammates on a consistent basis.
The importance of goalscoring for central midfielders truly depends on their role – more defensive/deeper players will not be expected to chip in with goals as frequently as more attacking midfielders. Players in that eight or 10 role are often important to a team’s attacking tactics and are expected to be amongst the goals.
Accrington Stanley’s Tommy Leigh will likely be drumming up some interest from clubs in higher divisions with his goals bringing the feel-good factor to the Wham Stadium. Leigh has played a multitude of midfield roles this season but has still managed to register six goals – 0.27 per 90 from an xG of 0.3 per 90.
Blackpool’s loan star Dembélé also shows a strong attacking ability from midfield with five goals to his name thus far – 0.21 per 90 from an xG of 0.13, so the former Celtic youngster is outperforming his xG.
Ball-carrying attributes are important for, well, any outfield position in the modern game, but how the skill is utilised depends on the position and role. In the context of a central midfielder, for example, deeper midfielders may be tasked with carrying the ball into the opposition half before playing the next pass in the build-up phase, whereas attacking midfielders will often dribble past an opponent in a dangerous in and around the box.
Dembélé’s name is one that continues to crop up, with the Brest loanee displaying great potential in a variety of attacking statistics. As you can see from the data in the above graph, the Blackpool man averages an exciting 5.71 dribbles per 90, considerably higher than the second-highest register in this group. Additionally, Dembélé doesn’t just dribble aimlessly, as evidenced by his high success rate of 61.26%.
We mentioned the second-highest average for dribbles per 90 within this group – that player is Oliver Arblaster, who was recently on loan at League One Port Vale from Premier League club Sheffield United. His technical ability on the ball was very promising at times, and is highly rated at Bramall Lane. During his time at Port Vale, now managed by former Sheffield Wednesday boss Darren Moore, Arblaster averaged 4.66 dribbles per 90 with a pleasing success rate of 57.65%.
There are a few players who show flashes of technical promise – Watson, Grimsby Town’s Alex Hunt, and Bolton Wanderers’ Aaron Morley all post good success rates with their dribbling from a lower engagement frequency.
Wingers
Moving on, it is time to look at which wingers have had a good campaign thus far, according to the data at least. As with the previous analysis segment, we selected 10 wingers based on data rankings, with the base metric for this group also being key passes – again, it highlights an ability to have a creative impact in the final third and create dangerous chances. Due to data limitations, this segment involves five players from each league instead of 10.
Arguably, key passes made by wingers have more potential to be dangerous than those made by central midfielders. Other than Dawson Devoy, none of the central midfielders involved averaged higher than 0.64 key passes per 90, but there are eight U23 wingers across League One and Two who post an average of 0.64 or higher.
This graph also represents the frequency of shot assists made by each winger – looking at both of these statistics side by side will help us gain a stronger understanding of which players are more creative and dangerous.
One player who excels in both statistics is Bradford City’s Bobby Pointon. The Bantams academy graduate, who can play on either flank or as an attacking midfield, as well as a selection of other positions, has displayed electricity in attack – 1.09 key passes per 90 and 1.78 shot assists per 90 – some way above the other players involved, and let’s not forget that ‘key passes’ was the deciding metric in terms of which players we included here!
Peterborough United also have an exciting young winger on their hands in Kwame Poku – a right winger who averages 0.97 key passes per 90 and makes 1.46 shot assists per 90, highlighting his ability to create chances for his teammates and play an important role in the latter stages of an attack.
Accrington Stanley player Jack Nolan, capable of being effective on either flank, averages a low rate for key passes per 90 in comparison to the other attacking wingers involved in this data analysis but has an exceptional engagement for shot assists, making 1.45 per 90.
Putting crosses into the box is a crucial aspect of being a winger – not just doing it regularly but also showing the technical ability to be dangerous with them. Of course, we have to be careful in how much judgement we place on a player’s cross accuracy % as a high-quality cross can be delivered into the box and still not be met by a teammate.
Jack Nolan shows a high involvement with crosses with a lower accuracy rate in the context of this group, but his 25.68% accuracy from 5.65 crosses per 90 means he delivers 1.45 accurate crosses per 90, which can still be a danger to the opposition.
Pointon impresses again with a high crossing accuracy of 34.48% from 2.87 crosses per 90 – Abu Kamara (Portsmouth, on loan from Norwich City) and Tyreece Campbell (Charlton Athletic) find themselves in a similar space. If we want to highlight a player who strikes a good balance in terms of having a good engagement paired with good accuracy rates, Reading’s Femi Azeez is the man who ticks that box. The Royals youngster, who worked his way into the EFL after impressing at non-league for clubs like Northwood, Wealdstone, and Hanwell Town, averages 4.19 crosses per 90 with an accuracy rate of 30.77% – 1.29 accurate crosses per 90.
Seeing a winger excite the crowd with dribbling ability is truly a sight to behold in football. Some opt to carry the ball at pace, some opt for close control, and some opt for trickery – all methods have proven to be effective when utilised correctly.
Posh winger Poku pops up again, making a remarkable 8.96 dribbles per 90 while also posting an impressive success rate of 60.59% – a full-back’s nightmare! Rob Apter, on loan at Tranmere from Blackpool, has undoubtedly put his parent club on alert with his performances, particularly when it comes to his dribbling ability. Apter averages 8.44 dribbles per 90, with an astonishing success rate of 61.49%.
Azeez and Campbell post promising numbers in terms of dribbling at a decent frequency while also being successful a good amount of the time, while Reading’s Ben Elliot offers 4.71 dribbles per 90 (lowest in the group), but his success rate of 59.46% suggests that he is a talented dribbler. Kamara and Shrewsbury Town’s Tom Bloxham fall under that category, too.
Chance creation – setting up goals is another obvious key component of being an effective winger. Tyreece Campbell boasts the highest rate of assists in this group, bringing 0.34 assists per 90 (five total), yet offers a low xA in the context of this group.
Poku shines again thanks to contributing 0.26 assists per 90 (eight total) from a high xA of 0.19 per 90. These stats combined give the impression that Poku is a highly effective winger when it comes to chance creation. Pointon, Azeez, and Nolan all offer promising rates for assists as well.
For many teams, wingers are just as important as centre forwards when it comes to scoring goals, which is why we’re taking a moment to provide an analysis of which of the selected wingers offer a goal threat.
It’s that man again – Kwame Poku. We mentioned his assist total, which currently stands at eight for the League One season; he also has eight league goals in 23/24 – he really is a huge attacking threat in every sense of the term. Jack Nolan also deserves some credit for his rate of 0.42 goals per 90 (11 total) from his xG of 0.28 per 90. That’s 15 G/A for the league season for Nolan, some achievement with around 15 games still to be played.
Centre forwards
We’ve seen plenty of centre-forwards make the step up to a higher league, with mixed results in terms of success once they start playing there. Undoubtedly, there are young CFs in League One and Two that Championship clubs will be keeping their eye on: we look to uncover some of them in this segment of analysis. The base metric used to select our 20 CFs was xG per 90 for the obvious reason that this metric points toward the player being consistently active and effective in front of goal.
There’s been a lot of talk about Bradford City forward Jake Young, who scored 16 goals in 25 league games on loan at Swindon Town earlier this season – he is yet to score this season since returning for Bradford, in 152 minutes spread over four games. Still, he boasts the highest rate of non-penalty goals per 90 out of the group, so his attacking threat cannot be denied.
Aston Villa youngster Louie Barry has been a highly-rated prospect for some time now, and he is showing just why during his loan spell at League Two Stockport County. The former Barcelona youngster, who can also play on the wing, has scored nine times in 15 League Two appearances this season — a clinical return.
A host of other centre forwards who post promising xG and/or non-penalty goals per 90 rates include Mansfield Town’s Will Swan, Lincoln City’s Joe Taylor, Max Dean of MK Dons and Lincoln City’s Freddie Draper (Walsall until January transfer to Lincoln).
This combined graph lets us see each forward’s goal conversion rates next to their shooting frequency and accuracy – seeing all of these three statistics together helps paint a better picture of who the more clinical forwards are.
Louie Barry claims the highest conversation rate currently (25.7%) – Cambridge forward Gassan Ahadme Yahyai (on loan from Ipswich Town) is a close second (25% – seven goals total). Draper, Jake Young, and Cheltenham Town’s Will Goodwin all also post a strong conversion rate.
Considering who likes to offers a high shot rate – Max Dean leads the way, taking 3.55 shots per 90 minutes – his conversion rate of 13.63 leaves him with a goal total of nine. Goodwin and Yahyai both offer high rates for shots on target, as do players like Sonny Cox (Exeter City) and Miles Leaburn (Charlton).
We finish off by looking at which centre forwards get involved in chance creation. We mentioned earlier how important it is for wingers to chip in with goals; well, centre-forwards are also often expected to be involved in setting goals up.
Will Swan leads the way in terms of xA (0.14 per 90) and assists per 90 (0.26), both of which are higher than any other CF in the group. For context, Swan has three assists this campaign. Barry and Ricky-Jade Jones post promising assist-related numbers too, with the latter registering four assists.
Conclusion
There is a cluster of names that have impressed in this data analysis, and, of course, there will be players who weren’t involved in this article that could go on to have a career at a level higher than their current club. But, in the context of the players we’ve looked at in this analysis, a few will likely go on to play Championship football in the near future, and even top-flight football one day.
Peterborough duo Ricky-Jade Jones and Kwame Poku are both players of huge potential. Poku is one who we’ve mentioned more times, thanks to his excellent output when it comes to dribbling, chance creation, and goalscoring ability. He currently has 14 G/A in League One, which is a very healthy return.
Accrington Stanley’s Jack Nolan is another player who could climb his way up the EFL ladder after impressing in multiple areas; the same can be said for Blackpool loan star Karamoko Dembélé, who has displayed great potential. Bradford City academy graduate Bobby Pointon is another one who, in the next few years, could well find himself playing at a higher level if he continues to perform and develop well, while Louie Barry’s loan spell will be very pleasing to Aston Villa as well.
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