Being called up to the England senior team for the first time is a day to remember for any player and can provide a platform for a player to become an important part of the national team. In the last few days, England manager Gareth Southgate announced his latest squad for upcoming friendlies against Brazil and Belgium – both opponents that will provide a huge test for the Three Lions and will give the staff, players, and fans an idea of where exactly the team is at.
Any national team squad announcement these days comes with backlash, with fans wanting ‘X’ player to be involved while quizzing the inclusion of ‘Y’ player. There’s no pleasing everybody, and thinking otherwise is plain naivety. This particular squad announcement has brought about a few questions surrounding certain players, with Southgate defending his selection in recent press conferences.
This data analysis will look at five players that Southgate likely considered for involvement in the upcoming fixtures but ultimately decided against – five players who would likely come into the squad with little to complain about from the fans’ perspective. This analysis will discuss why Jack Butland, Ross Barkley, Kobbie Mainoo, Harvey Elliot, and Raheem Sterling all had good reason to expect inclusion, using various data and statistics to explain why they could make a positive contribution to Southgate’s tactics.
Jack Butland
One of the experienced names in this analysis but has hit some excellent form while playing for Scottish giants Rangers. While some may question the quality of his performance due to him not playing in the Premier League or one of the ‘big five’ leagues in Europe, his contribution of 17 clean sheets in 29 games cannot be understated or ignored. Of course, Butland would be considered a backup keeper in the England setup as nobody looks to be taking the number one spot from Everton keeper Jordan Pickford anytime soon, but Butland does have prior international experience as he collected nine caps between 2012-2018.
To gain a full grasp of Butland’s importance to Rangers, the graph above includes key goalkeeper statistics that go some way to showing his quality. As mentioned, he has kept an incredible 17 clean sheets in the league to date, which is higher than any other keeper in the Scottish Premiership by some distance. Additionally, he ranks above all but two keepers in the division for prevented goals, proving that when he is called upon, he is reliable. This kind of solid presence within the squad, along with his experience, could make Butland an ideal squad player.
As we covered, if Butland were to be included in the England squad once again, it’s highly unlikely that he would take the number one spot, so we’ll compare his statistics against the other backup keepers within the team, the first being Arsenal shot-stopper Aaron Ramsdale.
We could dive into Ramsdale’s mixed fortunes in an Arsenal shirt this season, but for the context of this data analysis, we’ll still to what the statistics say about his contribution compared to Butland’s. In what may not come as a surprise, former Stoke City keeper Butland ranks in higher percentiles in several key GK areas, such as conceded goals per 90, save rate %, and clean sheets, while ranking similarly for xG against per 90 and shots faced per 90.
Ramsdale does offer aerial ability and leaves his line to cut balls out, and the fact that He is currently involved in a title race may also work in his favour.
Crystal Palace keeper Sam Johnston is the same age as Butland, with five fewer international caps, and has kept six clean sheets for the Eagles in the Premier League this campaign. Like Butland, Johnston has had quite the journeyed career so far, featuring for EFL clubs like Preston North End and Doncaster Rovers while playing plenty of EPL games for the likes of West Bromwich Albion and Aston Villa. So, you can understand why Southgate has included him, but does he offer more than Butland?
Again, unsurprisingly, Butland ranks in higher percentiles for key GK metrics, including conceding just 0.49 goals per 90 (best in the Scottish Premiership), but Johnston does show a tendency to leave his line more frequently. Butland also sees more of the ball in possession, something that you’d think Southgate would be an admirer of.
Ross Barkley
Another experienced name, Luton Town midfielder Ross Barkley, has been a surprise package this season, lighting up the Premier League with impressive performances. His career trajectory has been unique, to say the least, with the former Chelsea midfielder experiencing his fair share of ups and downs. After stints with Aston Villa and Ligue 1 club Lille, the versatile midfielder has earned the respect of many fans around the country, with many hoping he would be included in Southgate’s plans.
One of Barkley’s key traits in Luton’s midfield this season has been his ability to carry the ball in key central areas. He has displayed the confidence and often the technical prowess to burst from deeper areas of midfield into more promising zones, utilising his power to beat any oncoming challenges from the opposition. Barkley currently averages 1.71 progressive runs per 90 in the EPL while making 3.58 dribbles per 90 (48.9% successful).
In terms of comparing Barkey’s statistics against the current England crop, it would take a miracle to dethrone the likes of Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham, so we’ve decided to compare him to players he could realistically replace, one of them being Chelsea’s Conor Gallagher.
Gallagher has been featured 26 times for the Blues this season, and his percentile chart suggests that he brings a calming element to proceedings, often composed in possession, something that, tactically speaking, Southgate has always been a fan of. Conversely, Barkley aims to be more direct in an attacking sense, keen to drive the ball forward. This really comes down to a preference in playing style, and while we aren’t staying, Gallagher does not merit an England place; having a player of Barkley’s talent and unpredictability could be a useful weapon to bring on from the bench.
Suppose you didn’t pick up on it already. In that case, Barkley brings a physical presence to midfield, which, paired with his attacking tendencies, could pair well in games where England struggle to break down the opposition – this applies to attacking transitions as well.
Henderson’s data tells us what you may already know: he is often safe in possession, adding a similar calming element to midfield that Gallagher offers. Henderson just adds more defensive ability than the Chelsea midfielder. And that is perhaps why Henderson is included—aside from his experience and leadership qualities, he acts as a backup for Rice. Many believe Barkley would be a more productive addition to England’s midfield ranks than the current Ajax player, and frankly, it’s hard to argue with that.
Kobbie Mainoo
The youngest player included in this data analysis, Manchester United wonderkid Kobbie Mainoo, has been immensely impressive in the short time he’s been involved in a first-team setting. Having made 20 appearances in all competitions for United’s first team this season, Mainoo has excited the club’s fans with consistent quality performances, and the 18-year-old was rumoured to be a part of the England squad for the upcoming friendlies. However, Southgate explained that Mainoo has a vital role to play in the England U21’s UEFA Euros qualifying campaign, thus being unavailable to join the senior squad this time around.
One of the key outliers in Mainoo’s impressive debut season has been his ability to carry the ball over long distances from midfield into the final third. He shows fantastic balance, agility, and strength, not to mention technical skill to shift possession quickly into a more attacking region. In this respect, he shares some traits with the more experienced Ross Barkley, and having just one player of this style can add another attacking dimension to midfield.
Where Mainoo differs from Barkley is the lack of physical presence in his game, but this may come later in his career. This isn’t to say he doesn’t possess strength but doesn’t apply it to his game like Barkley does. The 18-year-old offers a different profile to Gallagher and can change the outlook of safe possession in the blink of an eye, something we don’t see all too often from Gallagher. Manchester United’s youngster also offers a defensive element, offering a higher percentile ranking in defensive duels won % than Gallagher. However, we should not dismiss Gallagher’s defensive output as he offers a higher engagement.
As we mentioned prior, Henderson’s leadership qualities and experience are likely the leading factors in Southgate’s decision to select the former Liverpool captain – it’s hard to see who it’s down to his club form.
Something we are yet to see from Mainoo on a consistent basis is chance creation and moving the ball forward via passing, something in which Henderson trumps him, albeit Henderson’s role sees him make dangerous passes from different positions to Mainoo. It’s interesting: if the upcoming friendlies did not clash with England U21’s fixtures, would Mainoo (or another midfield discussed in this analysis) be called up ahead of Henderson? Mainoo offers a good blend of defensive ability and technical skill in midfield, which could complement the squad’s balance already. The youngster averages 6.44 defensive duels per 90 in the EPL this season, boasting a strong win rate of 68.2%.
Harvey Elliott
Liverpool midfielder Harvey Elliot is not involved with the senior team for the same reason as Mainoo, with the 20-year-old having already proven he can cope with the standard of elite-level football. Similarly to Mainoo, though, it is worth noting that while many fans would hope that one or both of these young talents would be playing for the senior team, they would likely be brought on for cameo appearances from the bench. In contrast, in the U21 side, they have a better chance of making a greater impact, so they may be better off this way.
At just 20 years of age, Harvey Elliott is already well versed in elite-level football, having played for Liverpool over 100 times – 66 in the Premier League. When he’s present, he offers an exciting attacking edge to Liverpool’s midfield lineup. Again, if it wasn’t for the UEFA Euro U21 qualifiers, you would imagine that Elliott would be in serious contention for selection in the senior squad.
His attacking presence is consistent and often of high quality, showing the ability to hurt opponents with both quick dribbling and precise passing. Elliott is able to move with the ball at pace, which we often see in his 3.32 progressive runs per 90, while his shot assists average of 1.44 per 90 demonstrates his creativity.
His low defensive engagement may be a hurdle for Southgate, as his midfield setup doesn’t often feature a pure attacking midfielder and prefers more of a balanced lineup. On the other hand, however, Elliott is more than experienced in a similar shape for Liverpool.
This graph may be evidence that Southgate didn’t feel the dying urge to include Harvey Elliot. His statistical output suggests a similar technical profile to Tottenham Hotspur star James Maddison, who has displayed the ability to carve teams open with a range of passes while also using good dribbling skills.
While many England fans would love the idea of having both in the same squad, it’s our job to remain impartial and analytical, and while there would certainly be some benefits to having both players in the squad, you can see the logic behind not pulling Elliott from the U21 squad.
Raheem Sterling
We end with another experienced player – the most experienced England figure in this analysis. Raheem Sterling is not everyone’s cup of tea, but not many players play for as many big clubs as he has, with the winger playing for Liverpool and Manchester City before donning the Chelsea blue. While his contribution this season does not mirror his peak years, Sterling has still been an important figure in an underperforming Chelsea side, chipping in with 12 G/A in 25 EPL appearances. Still, there is no hiding from the glaring level of inconsistency in his game this season, which has left even Chelsea fans questioning his role at the club.
Anthony Gordon has silenced many critics this season with some dazzling performances for Newcastle United, earning himself a slot in Southgate’s squad. He joins the likes of Bukayo Saka and Jarrod Bowen in England’s wide attacking ranks and could bring a more direct element in the final third as he enjoys dribbling at defenders to get inside the box. This is something we’ve seen from Sterling over the years, but the Chelsea man has now missed six England squads consecutively, with Southgate himself stating that Sterling “has a fight on his hands” to get his international career back on track.
As mentioned, Sterling’s goal contribution this season has been promising, and he’s also shown a capability to produce dangerous passes in attack, making 1.15 shot assists per 90 in the EPL this season. Credit to Gordon, however, in terms of his percentile rankings, he shows promise in other attacking areas.
Marcus Rashford has come under fire from pundits and fans alike this season as the Manchester United man has failed to deliver on a consistent basic, contributing just nine G/A in the Premier League so far – compared to last season’s tally of 22, this is quite the drop-off. Still, Southgate has seen enough to keep him around for the foreseeable future; perhaps his high attacking engagement is something Southgate wants to tap into.
Sterling boasts higher percentile rankings in a few areas, such as goal contributions per 90, expected goal contributions per 90, and dangerous passes and touches in the box per 90 – Sterling’s quality. At the same time, some inconsistencies in his performance are apparent in some key statistics.
Conclusion
As we said earlier, there will always be some fans who are displeased with an England squad selection, but the heightened frustration and confusion about this latest is somewhat understandable. While the role of backup goalkeeper is not a priority, much evidence suggests Jack Butland has been unlucky not to be called up. Meanwhile, Ross Barkley will also be disheartened not to be included despite consistently good performances for a struggling Premier League side. Raheem Sterling probably expected not to be included in this squad due to the history between him and Southgate, combined with the form and performance of other players in his position, with Sterling not being in the England squad for some time now.
Finally, the calls for Mainoo and Elliott to be in the senior squad are well-founded, and Southgate knows their quality. Still, something must be said for prioritising the U21’s qualifying games—a more than acceptable and respectable decision. Good things come to those who wait, but some older players will feel that they are running out of time in terms of their international careers.
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