Pavel Dotchev has quite an interesting history with Erzgebirge AUE. It all started in 2015 when he first took the manager’s position at the club. That season, he led them to promotion from the third tier to the second tier of German football. He didn’t get the chance to improve on his accomplishments, ultimately being sacked midway through the 2016/17 campaign.
Fast forward to November 2021, Veilchen are sitting 17th in the 2. Bundesliga having won just one of their first 12 games of the 2021/22 season. Dotchev took over and inspired a brief upturn in form that ultimately didn’t last, resulting in the club finishing 17th. The Sofia-born head coach again departed the club, but not for long.
Act three begins in December of the following year. With Erzgebirge sitting 18th in 3. Liga in December 2022, Dotchev is brought back into the fold to prevent bad from getting worse. He succeeds, helping the team to end their first season back in the third tier since he led them to promotion in 2015/16 in 14th place.
This time, he was not sacked. Now, Erzgebirge have entrusted Dotchev with the task of rebuilding the club and eventually leading them to promotion once more. The task won’t be easy, as Veilchen’s current level of quality isn’t anything to write home about — they have the fourth-least valuable squad in Germany’s 3. Liga, per Transfermarkt, for instance.
However, despite this, they’ve enjoyed a far better start to the 2023/24 campaign than any of the seasons when Dotchev was called in to put out fires, with the club currently sitting seventh after 15 games. This tactical analysis and scout report will focus on providing an analysis of some key figures within Dotchev’s current Erzgebirge side who only joined this past summer.
Our analysis will look at how the 58-year-old coach has quickly crafted a critical spine to his side and in what way those players primarily fit into his team’s tactics. So, let’s get into the analysis then, shall we?
Niko Vukančić, 21 years old, centre-back
Niko Vukančić (186cm/6’1”, 77kg/169lbs) is the first of our key figures who joined Dotchev’s side this season and made an immediate impact. The 21-year-old Hannover-born centre-back joined from 2. Bundesliga side Fortuna Düsseldorf, having spent pretty much all of last season developing with Fortuna Düsseldorf II in Regionalliga West.
Even then, game time was not plentiful, and Vukančić made the decision to look elsewhere to continue his development — a decision that appears a wise one thus far, looking in from the outside, now that he’s ended up under Dotchev’s wing.
Vukančić is now the second left-footed centre-back within this Veilchen side. However, he’s the one who gets the most game time, ahead of Korbinian Burger, who held that distinction last season. So, 21-year-old Vukančić has replaced 28-year-old Burger in the starting XI, for all intents and purposes.
As figure 1 indicates, his primary attributes lie in the possession phases, particularly in relation to his progressive passing and even dangerous passing.
The left-sided pizza chart compares him with players in his position from all ‘Tier 6’ leagues, which includes but is not limited to 3. Liga, EFL League One, the Dutch Eerste Divisie, Brazil’s Serie B, Australia’s A-League and the Canadian Premier League — there are a total of 27 leagues in this tier. Meanwhile, the right-sided pizza chart compares him with players in his position from teams in Tiers five, six and seven — providing added context to his performance.
It’s true, having watched the centre-back on the ball, that he’s used heavily by his team during the build-up and ball progression phases and can even prove to be a chance creator from left centre-back, quickly springing wide attackers in behind or at least putting them in good positions to drive at the backline and carry the ball into a more dangerous area.
Vukančić’s progressive pass map from 2023/24 highlights where his balls are mainly played from and to. There are no surprises in the origin of most of these balls; however, we can see a clear distinction between the two most common destinations.
On the one hand, we see how he plays long balls in behind on the left wing, while we can also see plenty of balls being switched to the opposite side of the pitch. This is particularly common during the build-up as Vukančić receives, attracts the opposition’s press to one side, and quickly springs a ball over to the opposite side — hopefully finding a free player to get isolated with an opposition defender and take them on 1v1.
Off the ball, it’s common to see Erzgebirge AUE’s backline dropping off and not engaging in a particularly aggressive manner in terms of position. They will often focus on protecting the space behind rather than engaging with the opposition attack higher.
However, once the opposition progress into a position where they can more realistically hurt their opponent, we see Vukančić’s marking tighten up as he aims to deny space to an attacker who could cause problems.
We can see his defensive duels per 90 rate and defensive duel success percentage rank relatively high on the percentiles displayed in figure 1, demonstrating his reliability in these types of engagements this term.
Furthermore, Erzgebirge’s defensive record is excellent at present — the joint-fifth-best in Germany’s third tier — highlighting how well all components of their out-of-possession approach are functioning at the moment.
Mirnes Pepić, 27 years old, central midfield
The second player we’re going to look at who Dotchev has brought into the fold at Erzgebirge AUE this term is 27-year-old Mirnes Pepić (178cm/5’10”, 79kg/174lbs), who spent last season plying his trade with SV Meppen in Regionalliga Nord.
During his time with Meppen, we often saw Pepić deployed in higher positions, performing roles such as that of an attacking midfielder or a winger in addition to his primary role of a central midfielder.
The 27-year-old Montenegrin has primarily played in central midfield this term, often occupying deeper positions.
His heatmap on the left of figure 3 highlights his average positioning thus far during the 2023/24 campaign, emphasising this fact as we can see he’s spent most of his time within his own half, positioned on the left just behind the halfway line.
Here, it’s common to see him link up with Vukančić and the other central defenders, receiving just behind the opposition’s first line of defence along with his central midfield partner, 29-year-old Marco Schikora.
The midfielder’s pizza chart above highlights how actively involved he is within his team’s possession play, with his high percentile rank in received passes per 90 and passes per 90.
It’s also worth noting his low percentile rank in progressive passes and dangerous passes, emphasising how when he does receive the ball, it’s actually somewhat uncommon to see him breaking lines and driving the team forward into more dangerous areas.
This has been an area in which Veilchen can do with some improvement this term — they dominate possession but don’t reach the final third and truly put the opposition’s backline under serious pressure enough. For the team’s development, they must make more line-breaking passes and turn their possession into chance creation at greater regularity.
Without the ball, again, Dotchev’s side don’t press particularly aggressively, so high regains won’t be the main focus here, rather how the midfielders protect space and engage when necessary.
Pepić is not as defensively active as his midfield partner Schikora, with the latter carrying a bit more of the water without the ball. However, we do still see Pepić engage at times. As his defensive duel success rate percentile rank from figure 4 indicates, he’s been fairly reliable (quite average) when he does engage, albeit at a low frequency rate.
Pepić’s primary role within this team is intelligent positioning in the build-up to receive and make decent decisions on the ball, recycling possession to teammates in good positions, continuing the attack and helping his team play through the thirds, progressing into more threatening positions. His role is somewhat understated, but his high level of involvement in this Erzgebirge side, both in terms of minutes played and passes received, highlight his vitality to their success this term.
Sean Seitz, 21 years old, attacking midfield
Next up, we move into a player who has been a crucial part of his side’s chance creation this term — 21-year-old Sean Seitz (177cm/5’10”, 61kg/134lbs), who joined Erzgebirge from VfR Aalen of Regionalliga Südwest during the summer.
Seitz is a product of Hoffenheim’s academy, departing the Bundesliga club for Aalen in the summer of 2021. After spending a couple of seasons in Regionalliga Südwest — last term being his most prolific of the two, scoring seven league goals, he earned his move to 3. Liga, where he’s bagged three goals and made one assist in 14 appearances (851 minutes) during the 2023/24 campaign.
Seitz is a volume shot taker, as his extremely high percentile rank in shots per 90 would suggest.
This does, indeed, sacrifice some accuracy and shot quality for shot volume — he could do with improving his decision-making to an extent in that regard, as is highly common for younger players — but at the same time, as we mentioned earlier, Veilchen need players who try to make things happen, take risks and attempt to turn possession into chances — and Seitz certainly is one of those.
The 21-year-old has quickly become a key chance creator for his side through his dribbling, crosses and cutbacks. Figure 6 displays his ‘winger actions’ from 2023/24 — we can observe his most frequently occupied areas of the pitch from this, with the right-footer most commonly deployed on the left but also enjoying plenty of game time on the right this season.
Regardless of which wing he plays on, we see the 21-year-old drifting inside with great regularity, either carrying the ball inside after receiving earlier from a wide position or moving into the half-space to receive in a valuable chance creating position.
Seitz is reasonably active in defensive phases, but his defensive quality limits his level of contribution. Nevertheless, you do get a decent work rate from the attacking midfielder, and the defensive quality is a skill that can be improved through coaching, which Dotchev will undoubtedly aim to achieve while working with the Karlsruhe-born playmaker.
This summer signing carries plenty of responsibility within this team as a key creator. Dotchev will continue fostering bravery and creativity in Seitz to help improve his team’s capabilities in this area.
Marcel Bär, 31 years old, centre-forward
The fourth and final component of Pavel Dotchev’s succeeding side that we’ll focus on in this analysis piece is 31-year-old centre-forward Marcel Bär (184cm/6’0”, 80kg/176lbs), who joined Erzgebirge AUE from their third-tier rivals 1860 Munich who currently sit five places below Veilchen, occupying 12th place in the division at the time of writing.
Bär joined 1860 for the 2021/22 campaign and lit up 3. Liga, that term, bagging 21 goals and providing seven assists in 37 league appearances. The striker enjoyed far less prominence last season, scoring just six and making just one assist in 25 games — he’s well on course to beat last season’s totals this term, having scored four and provided two assists in 13 league appearances during the 2023/24 campaign to date.
Bär does not stand out as a particularly prominent player in any particular area among centre-forwards performing at a similar level, as indicated by the pizza chart above, which appears fairly average.
Again, Dotchev’s side have mainly struggled in the area of chance creation this term, and their goalscoring record is nothing to write home about particularly, so this doesn’t come as a huge surprise.
Of course, the type of centre-forward the team has will dictate a lot about how the team plays, including, naturally, how they create their chances. Erzgebirge don’t really play many balls in behind for the striker to run on to. Bär has primarily been getting involved in chance creation via his off-the-ball movement, trying to occupy valuable positions that make him an attractive option for a cross, with Erzgebirge mainly creating their chances from wide positions.
The 31-year-old forward provides an aerial threat as well as a ground threat, meaning Veilchen’s crossing can be varied, providing a certain element of unpredictability in a sense. At the same time, the striker’s movement should also aim to provide some variation for his side as he aims to find space in good positions while losing his marker.
We can find Bär moving around into wider areas and into deeper areas at times. Still, in terms of his shooting, we see some excellent positioning and a decent xG per shot, a testament to his off-the-ball movement and positioning, along with his decision-making in front of goal.
Now, Dotchev’s priority has to be ensuring a constant supply of chances to his forward; if Erzgebirge can make some ground in this area, they will continue competing at the business end of the table right up to the later stages of the campaign as Bär has proven that if given chances, he will convert plenty at this level.
Conclusion
To conclude this piece, these four summer signings have quickly become highly valuable members of Dotchev’s Erzgebirge side, forming a vital spine to the team that has them looking like potential promotion contenders despite their overall low squad valuation which would suggest lower quality than they’re currently displaying.
Erzgebirge aren’t without their problems, as we’ve also highlighted in this scout report, but they do provide an excellent example of effective squad-building, which manager Dotchev certainly deserves plenty of credit for as he has turned a floundering outfit in freefall around, putting them back on the right path.
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