There are bargains to be had this summer. In what may well be one of the most eye-watering free agency markets in recent memory (maybe ever?), there is a whole host of outstanding talent to be found without a transfer fee attached. Of course, due to that fact, and that these players can court many clubs at one time, wages, signing on fees and agent fees are often higher than if bought whilst under contract at another club for a transfer fee. However, let’s not let that ruin the fun.
This analysis will highlight key players with expiring contracts available in the off-season in the different areas of the pitch – goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders, and forwards. It will also provide a data analysis of these players, as well as providing a brief tactical analysis on some of the key talents available, explaining what clubs’ tactics they may suit best.
It should be noted before we progress with this article, that this article was written before the conclusion of the January transfer window. Some of these players may well have been bought in this transfer window given their clubs may wish to cash in on them rather than let them walk for free.
Given some of the high profile names available, this analysis will not include some names that most readers will already be well aware of. Kylian Mbappé, Paul Pogba, Paulo Dybala, Franck Kessie, Marcelo Brozović, César Azpilicueta, Federico Bernardeschi, Luka Modrić, Niklas Süle, Antonio Rüdiger, Edinson Cavani, Gareth Bale, Andreas Christensen, Ousmane Dembélé, Hugo Lloris, Andrea Belotti, Denis Zakaria, Ivan Perišić, Luis Suárez, Alessio Romagnoli and Jesse Lingard are all high profile names that are well known to be available this coming summer. That’s a lot of names. This article looks to shine a light on five players who may be flying under the radar.
Matthias Ginter
Ginter is a name that will still be familiar to many out there, even if they don’t follow German football. The 27-year-old defender originally emerged from Freiburg’s academy before joining Borussia Dortmund in 2014. He spent three years at Borussia Dortmund until Mönchengladbach moved for his signature, where he has been an ever-present in their backline ever since. He is a German international and is versatile, having played at right-back for the national team.
First of all, as a defender, Ginter shows outstanding quality. He is impressive aerially, winning a highly respectable 61.58% of his aerial duels in the Bundesliga this year. He has good timing and presence when competing in the air, whilst his 6’3” frame certainly helps too. We can see in the next image of his statistics how Ginter ranks above the league average for both aerial duels per 90 and aerial duel win percentage.
Ginter isn’t overly pacy and can be a touch slow to react at times, but generally, his ability to read the game and make tackles and interceptions is of very high quality.
We can see this in the data shown in the following graph, where not only is Ginter’s defensive duel win percentage well above the league average — an outstanding 72.95% — but his 7.5 PAdj. interceptions per 90 is very respectable as well.
One of Ginter’s stand out areas is his ball-playing ability. Whilst there are many defenders with equal quality aerially and in ground duels, there are few that can match his quality as a passer.
Ginter is a calm presence at the back and can engage in long spells of build-up play, if necessary. He consistently makes sensible decisions in possession and has an accurate switch of play. However, Ginter has been part of a Mönchengladbach team that for many years, has been highly vertical in possession, with many of their quick, forward attacks stemming from Ginter at the back. He can break lines on a consistent basis, whilst he can strike a variety of accurate long passes, whether directly into a target man, over the top of the defence, or with that diagonal ball in behind the opposition full-back.
Ginter ranks far above the league average for progressive passes per 90 and accurate progressive passes, leaving him in the company of Niklas Süle, Dayot Upamecano and Lucas Hernandez, at the top of the league for ball-playing defenders.
Noussair Mazraoui
Mazraoui will be a player we are highly likely to see in one of Europe’s top five leagues. He should be highly coveted this summer, with few right-backs of such quality available and for such little outlay. There has been some talk of Barcelona registering their interest, although frankly, there are few quality players available on free transfers who haven’t been linked with the Catalan side. It’s far less likely, however, that he re-signs with Ajax, meaning the 24-year-old Moroccan right-back should be another steal in this coming summer’s free transfer market.
As a defender, Mazraoui isn’t outstanding by any means. In fact, as we can see in the graph shown, he ranks below the league average for both defensive duels per 90 and defensive duel win percentage.
As an attacking right-back, Mazraoui’s quality is best seen on the ball. He is quick, direct, and very skilful. This is reflected in his dribbling, where there are only a handful of right-backs in the Dutch Eredivisie attempting a high volume of dribbles per 90, whilst his 55.57% completion is also above the league average, albeit only just. However, when attempting such a high volume, it is highly impressive that Mazraoui completed this amount.
Mazraoui has four goals and three assists to his name this season and is undoubtedly the most potent attacking right-back in the Eredivisie. His crossing ability is of the highest quality, and when put in context with his league peers, it becomes truly eye-opening. Only a couple of players are attempting a high volume of crosses, likewise for completion, but as we can see in the following graph, there isn’t anyone close to him in terms of volume and completion, whilst his expected assists value per 90 (0.23), is by far the highest of any right-back in this data set.
Jean-Paul Boëtius
Boëtius may come as a slightly intriguing inclusion on this list. When looking at Bundesliga midfielders available this summer, perhaps a more obvious choice is Florian Grillitsch. However, Grillitsch is likely to have a long list of suitors, like Ginter and Mazraoui, so to break that pattern we are, instead, highlighting a player who could be a surprising success at his next club. He is an attacking midfielder, who has struggled to maintain a first-team place in the Mainz 05 side this year, but Boëtius undoubtedly has quality and when playing for Mainz this season, he has contributed well to a team that although have dropped off slightly recently, were certainly surprising many doubters with their fine form in the first half of the campaign.
Firstly, Boëtius’ quality isn’t in defending, at least not in more developed defensive phases. He performs perfectly fine but just doesn’t stand out. We can see in the following graph that he is involved in a slightly below-average amount of defensive duels per 90, whilst his win percentage is basically bang on the league average itself. However, there are no positional issues with Boëtius, and he is a hard-working midfielder. He does have impressive acceleration and agility and can change direction effectively. Along with his commitment to defending, this makes Boëtius a quality counter-presser, so he would suit a team that put an emphasis on their work in transitions.
Boëtius is naturally more of a stand-out when in possession. Mainz are a side based on a similar philosophy to Borussia Mönchengladbach, who as previously mentioned, are vertical in possession. So, it is encouraging to see that Boëtius is a quality ball progressor. Admittedly he is a touch under league average for progressive runs; however, his 55% dribble completion is highly respectable. However, Boëtius attempts just over eight progressive passes per 90 — well above the league average — and his 81% completion on these passes is truly outstanding.
Whilst Boëtius hasn’t been much of a creator this season, with just one assist, he is nevertheless a positive and direct influence on the ball. We can see in the following graph how he is one of the better creative passers from central midfield in the league, with the 27-year-old’s volume of through passes and completion on passes into the penalty area both comfortably above the league average. His expected assists value of 0.18 per 90 is strong and above his actual value of 0.08 assists per 90, suggesting he could have one or two more assists to his name than he actually does.
Robert Navarro
It would, admittedly, be surprising to see Real Sociedad allow such an interesting talent to leave for free. However, the longer it goes on that Navarro doesn’t sign a new contract, the more likely this outcome appears. Navarro has moved to and fro between the first-team and Sociedad B this season. However, he has featured more regularly for the latter and so the data set looks at his performances for the B team in the Segunda Liga.
Navarro has a slight frame and is in the mould of what you might expect from a Spanish playmaker. He is a number 10 but can play out wide or even as a centre-forward.
The 19-year-old attacker admittedly doesn’t often come as a direct creator. He should be seen as a midfielder who can certainly breach the last line of the defence, but he often slides the ball into positions from where a teammate can make cross or pull-back pass themselves for the assist. This is reflected in the following graph where his xA per 90 value is incredibly low. However, we can see that his volume of passes to the penalty area per 90 and completion on these passes is highly impressive.
Navarro is very direct on the ball and frequently looks to isolate himself against a defender. He is an innovative dribbler who attempts an incredibly high volume of dribbles per 90, whilst his 43.7% completion may be below the league average but is still strong for the sheer number of dribbles attempts.
Navarro takes a respectable amount of shots per 90 and is confident in taking on these shots from longer distances. He decides to shoot quickly and can strike the ball with placement or power and with either foot.
His 42.11% accuracy is also above the league average and whilst he takes a decent amount of touches in the box and his xG per 90 is strong too, he is yet to score this season.
Navarro is far from being the finished product just yet but is a player with a clear high ceiling, and if he chooses to reject a new contract at Sociedad, he could be a steal long-term for an ambitious top-tier team in Europe.
Randal Kolo Muani
The final player mentioned in this article is Randal Kolo Muani who has seven goals and two assists to his name in France’s Ligue 1 for Nantes this season.
The 23-year-old forward can play centrally or wide in part of a front three. He is quick, strong, and tall, and is highly effective on the counter-attack.
Standing at 6’2” in height, Kolo Muani is often used as a target for long balls. His 5.82 aerial duels per 90 is well above the league average, yet his 38.79% completion is impressive too. He has a lot more to offer though than just as a target, and even if he doesn’t win the ball, he is quick and aggressive and chases loose balls across the opposition backline.
Kolo Muani is very impressive with the ball at his feet when dribbling. He is certainly skilful and has talent at holding up the ball or moving away from defenders in a tight area. However, he has a long stride and is able to hold off defenders when surging forward. If playing against a high line or at the very least with space to attack, Kolo Muani can be a dangerous dribbler.
His 4.76 dribbles per 90 and 56.5% completion on these dribbles is excellent, and the following graph shows him ranking above the league average for both of these metrics.
It should be noted that Kolo Muani has so far well exceeded his xG of 4.21, given his seven goals thus far. We can see that his xG pales in comparison to a lot of the attackers in the league. However, managing 0.36 goals per 90 from minimally over one shot on goal per 90 (which clearly needs to be higher), means Kolo Muani is managing a goal from every three shots.
Conclusion
This article aimed to shed light on just a handful of players available this summer, with certainly a few of these not being mentioned as much as some of the more high profile players available for free. A free transfer is not without its risks, as the agents and players tend to hold even more power than normal, and clubs may have to put a player on a higher salary than perhaps they would like, to get their man. However, with the sheer volume of players available on a free, it will be interesting to see what this does to the market, not just with free transfers but with paying clubs transfer fees for players too.
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