Football is everywhere. Thanks to more and more TV coverage of live games and highlights and social media, there is no hiding place for those who are deemed to be underperforming. While increased exposure to football has positive elements attached to it, there is also a fair share of negative overtones – from an analytical perspective. Fans, and sometimes pundits, are generally quicker to criticise a player for bad form, and with the general public having more access to match data and footage has ever been available before, we sometimes see players being wrongly criticised as a result of misusing/misinterpreting player data.
Arsenal winger Gabriel Martinelli has somewhat fallen under that exact microscope this season due to his significant decrease in G/A. Last season in the Premier League, Martinelli registered 15 goals and five assists but has only had two of each so far this season in England’s top flight. Understandably, many Arsenal fans are disappointed at the Brazil International’s reduced involvement at the business end of the pitch, with some rival fans even mocking the stat. Still, if you’ve watched Arsenal this season, you will know that Martinelli has been effective, just in different areas than last season. This scout report will compare data & match footage from this and last season, with the analysis looking to uncover why his G/A contribution has dropped. The tactical analysis will also provide context around Martinelli’s role this season, as it has been altered from last season.
In terms of data provided, we will only be using stats from the Premier League when discussing isolated statistics. The same goes for various data visuals – keep in mind that the visuals depicting last season’s performance include Martinelli’s appearances throughout the whole season.
Overview
To get the ball rolling, we can discuss his overall performance in terms of data (compared with other left-wingers in tier-one leagues), allowing us to pull apart some key areas of his game early on. At the time of writing, Martinelli has played 18 EPL games.
There are some blaring similarities between his output this season so far and last season – he has been highly involved in the box, as evidenced by his high percentile ranking for touches in the box per 90. This is an immediate hint that he hasn’t been letting games pass him by and is still critical of Arsenal’s attacking tactics; his role has just altered.
As for the stat that has raised eyebrows in the first place, his goal contribution rate last season saw him placed in the 73.9th percentile against other LWs in tier 1, whereas this season, currently, he is only in the 43.1st percentile rank – a significant drop-off.
Elsewhere, there are more clues about his altered role – this season, he receives the ball much more often (his touch map coming up next will provide more context about this), which suggests he is involved in earlier phases of build-up play more often than last season.
This touch map allows us to drill into the bedrock of the foundation of Martinelli’s change in role under Mikel Arteta this season. Not much has changed on paper – he still starts as LW in a 4-3-3 formation most of the time, but it’s Arsenal’s shape in possession and Martinelli’s positioning to fit that shape that has resulted in the Brazilian playing differently.
There are two key notes to take from the above touch map. One of them is Martinelli’s drop-off in how often he touches the ball in central areas – last season; he liked to play a more inverted role – either driving in from wide areas with the ball or drifting into a central to collect the ball. This season, however, as you can see, he is receiving the ball high and wide much more frequently – this links into the Gunners’ tactics, which we will cover in more depth further into this analysis.
Exploring his drop in G/A
Not to sound like a broken record, but the altered role is partly responsible for Martinelli’s drop in goals and assists. Regardless, even with a more conservative role that requires him to contribute to earlier phases of attack, Arsenal’s wingers are still highly attacking, so you would want your winger to have more than four G/A after 18 games. This segment of analysis covers Martinelli’s shot locations while looking at how his new role demands positions that sometimes limit him from getting into dangerous spaces as he did last season.
XG is a stat that can be overused and misused, even by leading TV sports broadcasters at times! What xG does allow us to see is a player’s (or team’s) quality in front of goal, and by extension, their chance creation frequency, and is a much more useful tool when used to analyse a player/team over a period of time, instead of just one isolated game to see what the score should’ve been.
Martinelli, currently on two EPL goals at the time of writing, is slightly underperforming his xG of 3.59, but that isn’t really the main point of including this data visual – even if he had lived up to that xG stat, he would be receiving the same criticism for not scoring enough: we want to find out why he’s scoring less.
A theme you will notice throughout this scout report, if you haven’t already, is the decreased central activity Martinelli offers in Arsenal’s tactics this season – it is apparent once again by looking at his shot locations. As expected, the bulk of his shots come from the attacker’s left side of the box as he likes to cut inside and shoot, but his off-the-ball movement last season came in clutch on several occasions, allowing him to pop up in central areas to grab a goal.
There is also the argument of Arsenal’s midfield personnel and their respective roles impacting Martinelli’s performance – i.e. was Ganit Xhaka’s partnership with the winger different or more productive than his relationship with Kai Havertz? That’s a story for another, but a possibility, regardless.
We aren’t just going to look at chances Martinelli has missed because that sheds no light as to why he is less attacking in the final moments of an Arsenal attack. As we mentioned earlier, Martinelli picks the ball up in high and wide areas on a consistent basis this campaign, and the example above allows us to see why he is struggling to get more involved in the latter stages of a move. The winger was no stranger to collecting the ball in wide areas last season, so why is an increased frequency hurting his stats this year?
One of the reasons is Arsenal’s fluidity and presence at times that mirror the situation above. Martinelli thrives on passing combinations – giving the ball to a teammate and making a clever run behind an opponent to receive the return pass, but Arsenal’s shape this season doesn’t allow for this as much as last season. Above, Martinelli could have dribbled on the outside of the full-back, down the flank, but he prefers to do his 1v1 dribbling much higher up the pitch – nearer the box.
In this instance, he was looking for a support teammate to drift into the area between Brighton’s defence and midfield (highlighted yellow) – where a passing combination would have been a real possibility. While Arsenal have not totally alienated this element of play from their tactics, they are more cautious in sending players forward as they want to keep their midfield unit solid in case of a turnover and subsequent opposition counterattack. Credit where it is due, though, Martinelli is often an essential part of the earlier phases of attacks before it reaches the endpoint, again often utilising passing combinations.
An additional note about the width of Arsenal’s wingers is that it can bring a somewhat unwelcome element of the front three being disconnected – the link-up between them is not as strong or frequent due to them being stretched further apart.
This next image gives us an excellent example of Arsenal looking to use that link-up play in wide areas – with Martinelli in a more central position as CF Gabriel Jesus had drifted into a wide position to help proceedings.
Newcastle switched off for less than half a second, but the Arsenal duo did not, and Martinelli knew that ball was coming his way – he was then able to collect the ball and drive inwards towards goal – something we see less of from him these days.
Another possibility behind his lack of goals this season is his attacking anticipation and sharpness – is he just having a rough patch? If you go back and watch some of his goals from last season, can you genuinely say the same player, the player he is this season, scores them all? As we said earlier, he doesn’t let games just pass him by, but it is possible that the reduction in his attacking action has impacted his sharpness and instinct in front of goal.
This example from last season gives us some insight into that instinct and the aforementioned off-the-ball movement. Saka is making a trademark run toward the byline, which in turn forces the Southampton defence deeper, including Martinelli’s marker. Recognising the situation as it unfolds – his marker’s positioning as well as Saka’s positioning and where he can deliver the ball to, he peels away from the Saints defender to drift toward the penalty spot as Saka’s cross makes its way to the same destination – Martinelli met the cross to bury the chance.
There is a legitimate question as to whether he would score that goal this season due to both tactical and psychological reasons.
His creativity – is he wasted in his new role?
Martinelli has been performing steadily in this more reserved role. As you saw in the percentile charts earlier, he is reliable on the ball when it comes to passing and keeping possession ticking. And while he does still show the ability to produce great moments, this happens far less in terms of setting goals up – which, if you again consult the percentile charts, you get a good sense of thanks to his low ranks for dangerous passes.
His shot assist map tells us more about his decline in chance creation. Last season, he consistently showcased the ability to unlock defences from various locations, including many shot assists from central areas – something which is a rarity this season. Whether it is a case of Martinelli getting to grips with his own new role or Arsenal’s midfield getting to grips with their system as a unit and how they interact with the wingers (or a combination of both), the map above is a massive hint as to what they’re missing from Martinelli this season.
Crossing has become a more prominent feature of Martinelli’s game this season. He averages 4.81 crosses per 90 with an accuracy of 36.49% (third and 14th highest this season in EPL rankings, respectively), compared to last season, where he offered 2.98 crosses per 90; 30% accuracy – both numbers significantly lower and neither of them ranking in the top 30 within the Premier League.
There is the argument that Martinelli has improved his quality ability since last season – he is still a young player, after all, so development is inevitable. But, despite his high cross accuracy, his assists tally doesn’t reflect it. This is where we would have to do a separate deep dive into Arsenal’s crossing/aerial play to get a more accurate idea of where the fault lies – is it with Martinelli’s crossing location & placement (he has high crossing accuracy but are those meeting his cross often meeting the ball in a goal-scoring manner?) or Arsenal’s movement/overall box quality. Arsenal have scored nine headed goals this season, more than anyone else, by the way.
This example of a Martinelli cross is perhaps a harsh one due to how extreme it is, but it does allow us to dissect various vital parts. Let’s start with the cross itself, which mirrors the aforementioned characteristics of not being delivered into the most productive area – even if there was a teammate in the right place to receive the cross, would they be able to do anything of any worth or danger?
Additionally, again, you can see Martinelli looking for that close link-up (yellow highlighted zone) to perform a passing combination or use the teammate as a decoy – he also often has the option to cut and drive inside to get into a shooting/passing position or driving on the outside toward the byline where he likes to either deliver a cross or use his exceptional technical ability to dribble further into the box.
As mentioned, this is a more extreme example, but it highlights how his thought process has changed since last season due to the new tactical instructions set upon him by Arteta.
Last season, he offered a lower crossing frequency but could still carve out these chances and positions. The image above shows this – the top image shows us a stark difference from what we’re used to seeing this season. Where he has looked to cross early on multiple occasions this campaign from that starting position, last season, he would either drive outside toward the byline or inside into a central, as he did on this occasion, before dinking a well-executed cross into the runner’s path.
His pace, technical ability, and incisive nature make him so effective in these short moments, and something Arteta needs to help him find once again.
One final contextual piece to describe his role this season. While Martinelli has been questioned about his ability to dribble past opponents consistently, he has given us incredible moments where he leaves them for dust, particularly deep in the final third, close to the byline, where he needs to utilise close control.
While it looks like a big difference, don’t forget this visual (and all the others) depicts his output from his 18 games this season against the entire EPL 22/23 season. In fact, he averages more dribbles and progressive runs this season – the point here is the location, not the frequency. Arteta is clearly trying to build a system here that relies more on structure and patience – using passes to move the ball, allowing players to keep their positions to defend against possible transitions.
Conclusion
Reiteration here is important – this isn’t a scathing indictment of Arsenal, Arteta, their tactics, or even Martinelli. The team is playing well, as is the individual – but more is expected from Martinelli in a purely attacking sense. That expectation only comes because he has proven he is capable. His G/A output is down by some margin compared to last season, but he is performing adequately in possession. Is it poor form in key attacking moments due to a tactical tweak or both? Time will tell.
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