West Ham United finished their campaign with UEFA Europa Conference League success after a victory over Fiorentina to qualify for next season’s UEFA Europa League. If you haven’t yet read it, we have a tactical analysis piece on the match here. However, their season as a whole may be looked back upon with mixed feelings.
The Hammers finished in 14th place in the Premier League, just six points above the relegation zone. This came a season after they achieved a seventh-placed finish to qualify for the Conference League in the first place.
This data analysis will be split into two parts. First, we will use some data to investigate why West Ham weren’t as successful in the Premier League this season compared to last season. We will then focus on areas in which they can improve, and use statistics to provide some transfer suggestions to fix these problems ahead of the summer transfer window.
What type of side are West Ham?
Before we go any further, we need to understand what type of side David Moyes has built at the London Stadium.
The statistics from the above pizza chart teach us that, compared to other Premier League sides, West Ham generate a fairly high expected goals (xG) figure. However, they underperformed in front of goal and scored fewer goals than expected. They generally average a low possession share, which perhaps explains why they don’t make many opposition penalty area entries.
West Ham’s high press wasn’t very effective last season, although they are very good at limiting the opposition’s xG. This suggests that they are effective at sitting in a compact defensive block to prevent their opponents from generating high-quality chances, as opposed to looking to win the ball back high up the pitch.
Below we can see West Ham’s defensive territory from the 2022/23 Premier League season. Notice how their defensive line is quite deep, around halfway between the halfway line and the edge of their penalty area. Their defensive territory also goes quite far back into their penalty area, with not many defensive actions towards the opponent’s penalty area at the top of the image.
West Ham also place a high importance on crosses and set-pieces. The data from the above pizza chart shows how they rank very well compared to other Premier League sides at getting crosses into the box. West Ham also won the seventh-highest amount of corners in the league per 90 minutes last season and won eight penalties which was only bettered by Manchester City and Fulham.
How have things changed for West Ham’s attack since last season?
In the 2021/22 Premier League season, West Ham finished in 7th place. They scored 60 goals and conceded 51 in their 38 matches. Although this season they conceded a similar 55 goals, West Ham only scored 42 themselves. This may sound surprising, but this is perhaps explained when we take into consideration their xG. In 2021/22, West Ham scored on average 1.58 goals per 90 minutes, compared to an xG of 1.43. This is an overperformance of around a goal every six or seven matches. In the season just finished, West Ham’s xG remained almost identical per 90 minutes (1.44). However, they only scored 1.11 goals. This means that they underperformed in front of goal, off the back of a season in which they scored more than they would have been expected to.
There’s an argument here which suggests that, according to the data, West Ham’s underperformance this season is nothing more than being down to the variances equalling out. One season they may score more than expected, the next they may score fewer than expected. But before we come to that conclusion, we should investigate further.
This season West Ham also took more shots from outside the opposition penalty area per 90 minutes than in 2021/22 (4.68 per 90 minutes compared to 3.95). Their average shot distance also increased slightly, from 17.51 to 17.75. West Ham also took fewer touches in the opposition penalty area per 90 minutes this season than last (16.58 compared to 18.66), and made fewer penalty area entries (22.21 compared to 23.92).
The next couple of visualisations help to illustrate these points. First, by looking at the shot map, we can see how West Ham took a lot of shots from outside of the opponent’s penalty area. These obviously tend to have a lower likelihood of resulting in a goal, and this is illustrated in the image by these shots having a smaller dot size compared to those shots that were taken closer to the goal. The second visualisation is a heat map. This shows us that, during West Ham’s matches, there is less intensity within the opposition penalty area, at the top of the image.
We now know that West Ham not only scored fewer goals than they would have been expected to, but they also had more difficulty in getting the ball into the opponent’s penalty area than in 2021/22. As a result, they ended up shooting from slightly further out. This gives us more context when we think about why they may have underperformed their xG.
Compared to the 2021/22 season, per 90 minutes West Ham made fewer forward passes (134.32 compared to 142.39), fewer progressive passes (65.16 compared to 70.39), and fewer passes to the final third (45.50 compared to 51.20).
Below we can see Tomáš Souček’s progressive passes in both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 Premier League seasons for West Ham. We can clearly see how he made fewer of these passes in the most recent season. This put more pressure on captain and midfield partner Declan Rice to progress play from central midfield. With Rice seemingly close to leaving the club, West Ham will have to recruit in that area of the pitch.
How have things changed for West Ham’s defence since last season?
Although they conceded more goals this season compared to in 2021/22, West Ham’s xG against per 90 figure of 1.43 is very similar to the actual number of goals they conceded per 90 minutes – 1.45. When we compare these numbers to the 2021/22 season, West Ham’s goals against figure per 90 minutes rose from 1.34 to 1.45. However, their expected figure dropped significantly from 1.66 to 1.43. These statistics tell us that in 2021/22, West Ham probably conceded fewer goals than they would have been expected to. But in the most recent season, they conceded goals as expected and at a rate that is more sustainable long-term.
Below, we can see the non-penalty shots that West Ham goalkeepers faced in the 2022/23 Premier League season. Notice how, according to the data, their goalkeepers helped them prevent a further 4.22 goals from being scored – clearly indicating good goalkeeping performance.
When we look at some more data, the story of West Ham’s improved underlying defensive numbers remains consistent. In the 2022/23 season compared to the previous season, per 90 minutes West Ham conceded fewer shots (12.13 down from 13.74). They also allowed slightly fewer opposition touches in their penalty area (21.00 per 90 minutes compared to 21.76 per 90 minutes).
Despite this, this season, compared to 2021/22, West Ham’s opponent’s made more forward passes (165.97 up from 148.55), more progressive passes (73.18 up from 71.32), and more passes to the final third (58.58 up from 56.61) per 90 minutes. This can be somewhat explained when we consider that West Ham’s average possession share dropped from 47.25% to 41.62%. This suggests that West Ham faced more difficulty in maintaining possession compared to the season before last – something else which they can look to improve upon.
As has been mentioned earlier on in this article, West Ham are very good at limiting opponents’ chances by sitting in a compact low block close to their penalty area. We also now know that their opponents generally have lots more possession and make more dangerous passes than West Ham. This further reinforces the idea that West Ham are often forced to sit deep to defend their penalty area.
The below visualisation illustrates this for us. We can see that West Ham blocked 130 shots. These shots accumulated an xG of 8.21. This means that had these shots not have been blocked, they would have been expected to concede a further eight goals.
Summer transfer targets
We have now identified certain areas where West Ham could look to improve: maintaining possession, progressing play to the opponent’s penalty area, and finishing. Now we have identified some weaknesses, we can start to find some suitable transfer targets.
West Ham’s captain Declan Rice has been the subject of a lot of transfer speculation recently. With the club seemingly set to lose their star player during the summer transfer window, a suitable replacement will have to be found. Below is his pizza chart for the 2022/23 Premier League season.
Using xGOLD, TFA’s very own player similarity tool, we have identified Atlético Madrid’s Pablo Barrios as a suitable replacement for Rice. Below is a radar showing their statistics next to each other. We can see how they are similar profiles, and rank close together for a number of different metrics. These include Dribbles per 90, Passes per 90, Progressive Passes per 90, and Defensive Duels Won (%).
When we look at Barrios’ pizza chart compared to other La Liga midfielders, below, we can see he ranks well at Dribbles per 90. This is significant, as one of Rice’s main strengths is his ability to carry the ball forward from deeper positions – something that is quite unique for defensive midfielders. From the below data, we can also see how Barrios gets through a lot of defensive work – something that will need to be replicated if a move to East London is to happen. He also ranks fairly well across the board in a number of possession metrics, including Progressive Passes per 90.
As earlier mentioned, Tomáš Souček wasn’t very effective at making progressive passes this season. In fact, when we look at his data using the pizza chart below, compared to other midfielders he ranks very poorly in a number of possession statistics. Souček does however rank well in metrics like Aerial Duels per 90, Aerial Duels Won (%), Goal Contributions per 90, Expected Goal Contributions per 90, and Opposition Penalty Area Touches per 90. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, as Souček plays a key part in ensuring West Ham are as effective from set pieces as they are. He also ranks well at Defensive Duels Won (%), which as earlier mentioned is important for West Ham as they require their midfielders to protect the defence when sitting in their low block.
If Rice is to depart, it’s very unlikely that one player will be able to replace him and perform to the same standard as West Ham’s captain. He is one of the best defensive midfield players in the world and realistically, West Ham will need to use any transfer fee to strengthen a number of areas to compensate for the loss. Taking into consideration Souček’s weaknesses on the ball, and the added pressure it placed upon Rice to progress play from central areas despite his world-class ability, another central midfielder could be needed to make up for Rice’s departure.
Another possible target West Ham could look to sign is Southampton’s James Ward-Prowse. Using the statistics from the below pizza chart, we can tell that Ward-Prowse would be an upgrade on Souček in terms of possessing the ball. He ranks fairly well at a number of possession metrics and gets through a lot of defensive work.
Ward-Prowse attempted an above-average number of Defensive Duels per 90, and ranked well at Defensive Duels Won (%). Ward-Prowse’s excellent delivery would also help West Ham to maximise their strengths from set-pieces. As has been mentioned earlier, set-pieces are already something that West Ham place great importance upon, but Ward-Prowse’s arrival would enable them to further strengthen in this area.
Lastly, we have used xGOLD to identify Amine Salama as a suitable replacement for Michail Antonio. Salama currently plays for Angers in Ligue 2, after their relegation from Ligue 1 at the end of the season – so he could be available at a reasonable price. Using the data from the below radar, we can see how the two players are very similar profiles. The only area where they differ is aerially. Antonio seems to attempt and win more aerial duels. Despite this the two players rank similarly at metrics like Goal Contributions per 90, Expected Goals per 90, Shots per 90, Opposition Penalty Area Touches per 90, and Dangerous Passes per 90.
Salama will turn 23 years old in July, and as West Ham will have to start planning for the future past 33-year-old Antonio at some point, he may be a good replacement.
Conclusion
Although West Ham ended their season with European success, it would be a mistake to think that they don’t need to strengthen. Their Premier League season was clearly not as successful as their 2021/22 season, and improvements will need to be made to ensure they finish higher up the table next time around.
With Europa League football to look forward to next season, West Ham should be able to attract a good standard of players who will help them improve. Although they seem set to lose their captain, West Ham should be able to use any transfer fee for Declan Rice to strengthen multiple areas of their team.
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