Italy: An analysis of their centre-back options

For the longest time now, the Italian national football team has been synonymous with legendary defenders. Italy has produced some of the world’s greatest defenders in the history of the game. The most recent to be heralded with the recognition being: Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci. After a dismal last few years on the international stage, serious questions were raised about Italy’s performance, attitude, tactics and team selection. This data analysis aims to arrive at Italy’s best options in the centre-back position.

We base this piece on pure data analysis of all the players in consideration. All the data and statistics in this analysis is taken from Wyscout and is from season 2019/2020. We first draw up a data-set with the following filters:

1. All CB players eligible to play for Italy, playing in Europe’s top 5 leagues.
2. We then narrow it down, by considering only those players who have played at least 900 minutes of football in the 2019/2020 season.
3. We further narrow it down to players who’ve played a majority of their minutes playing as CB.

This draws up a very comprehensive and thorough set of players who are considered for the analysis. The rationale for having point (b) and (c) would be to ensure that the players in consideration have demonstrated consistency and to ensure that make-shift CBs are not considered a part of this analysis. The analysis takes into consideration different facets of the players’ abilities: defensive ability, positional awareness, and ball progression ability.

Defensive Ability

While some players may be better at defensive duels, some may be better at aerial duels. This analysis, however, looks at players who show top statistics for both the metrics. The data shows that if the selection is made purely on the ability to win duels, defensive and aerial, then there’s nobody better than Francesco Acerbi (32) and Angelo Ogbonna (31). Acerbi, playing for Lazio, wins 74.50% of his defensive duels and 64% of his aerial duels. Followed closely by Ogbonna, who for West Ham this season, has won 73.25% of his defensive duels and 64.71% of his aerial duels. There’s also Leonardo Bonucci (33) who comes in a close third at defensive duels by winning 72% of his defensive duels, but is poor at aerial duels. A surprising name crops up as a third choice if the decision was basis pure defensive ability, David Abraham (33). Abraham, playing at Eintracht Frankfurt, wins 70.94% of his defensive duels & 63% of his aerial duels. As mentioned earlier, the analysis picks only players who’re good at both defensive duels and aerial duels and not just good at one of the two. At number four is Rafael Tolói (29) who plays for this season’s Serie A wonder team – Atalanta. He wins 68.55% of his defensive duels and 60.32% of his aerial duels. And the fifth option is Mattia Bani (26) who plays for Bologna. He too records an impressive win rate of 67.41% for defensive duels & 60.93% for aerial wins. If defensive ability was the only considered attribute, then a plausible strategy for Italy would be to not go in with three elder statesmen and instead bring in Tolói and/or Bani to add depth, and build for future tournaments.

Positional Awareness

The analysis tries to further understand the players’ game, by understanding how effective they with their positioning. For this analysis, we consider possession adjusted-interceptions per 90 (PAdj Interceptions), and shots blocked per 90. Interceptions are useful in determining how good a player is at reading the game and anticipating the next move. Cutting off a passing lane by good positional awareness and intercepting a pass helps breakdown play and start a counter-attack. Shots blocked requires a combination of fine positional awareness and a willingness to put their body in the line for sake of their team. If the selection was solely basis positional awareness then the statistics show that Erick Cabaco (25) and Andrea Cistana (23) would be the best picks. Cabaco, playing for Getafe, has recorded numbers of 9.08 for PAdj interceptions and 0.93 for shots blocked per 90. Cistana, playing for Brescia, makes 7.54 PAdj interceptions and blocks 1.32 shots per 90. While there are other players such as Armando Izzo and Alessio Romagnoli who have better PAdj interceptions, they don’t do as much in terms of blocking shots. Fabio Pisacane (34) does well on both counts, but at 34 it seems highly unlikely that he’s going to get a call-up. Pisacane’s drop means Izzo and/or Romagnoli can be the next choices to add depth. Again, the picks are based on if positional awareness is the only attribute considered.

Ball Progression

The evolved game tactics often see centre-backs play the ball out from the back, moving the ball forward and contributing to the build-up play almost like a defensive midfielder. The game requires the CB to also be able to initiate counter-attacks from the back and catch the opposition off-guard. As such a CB is required to not just be a rock in defence, but also be able to contribute with his ball-playing ability. To understand the contribution to build-up and attack play, this data analysis takes into consideration the number of forward passes played per 90, and the number of progressive passes played per 90. Progressive passes can be defined as a considerably long forward pass with – a pass length of 30m if both starting and ending points are in the same half, 15m is both points are different halves, and 10m if both points are in the opponents half. If ball progression and contribution to build-up play was the only consideration, then the statistics show that Leonardo Bonucci (33) and Rafael Tolói (29) are the top picks. Bonucci, playing for Juventus, makes 25.70 forward passes and 12.51 progressive passes per 90. Tolói, playing for Atalanta, makes 23.74 forward passes and 12.75 progressive passes per 90. Davide Biraschi (25), comes up as third choice. Biraschi, playing for Genoa, makes 24.61 forward passes and 11.15 progressive passes per 90. Gian Marco Ferrari (28) and Alessio Romagnoli come in as the next choices to add depth. These would be the choices if contribution to attacking build-up play was the only consideration.

Shortlist

Having listed down choices of players if each of the above-listed attributes was the only consideration, the data analysis now aims to arrive at a concise shortlist of players who possess all the above attributes. Given that a centre-back today has multiple roles to play and has to be multifaceted, we look at a shortlist of players who fit the bill of a modern-day defender – a ball-playing defensive wall. Of course, defensive ability cannot be compromised, and therefore the first filter is to find the best defensive players and see if they possess the ball progression ability that would add the x-factor. From all the players available, the analysis arrives at the top 12 possible options from which a further the shortlist is made.

Francesco Acerbi | Age: 32 | Club: Lazio

Acerbi and Ogbonna are the best, defensively, on the list. However, Acerbi takes precedence over Ogbonna owing to his better ball-playing ability and contribution to the build-up play. Acerbi is a force defensively, winning nearly 75% of his duels on the ground and near 65% of those in air. He even makes a decent number of forward (8.5) and progressive passes (18), adding to the build-up play.

Angelo Ogbonna | Age: 31 | Club: West Ham United

Ogbonna makes the cut owing to his superior defensive ability, like Acerbi. Much like Acerbi, Ogbonna also wins nearly 75% of his duels on the ground and nearly 65% of those in air. He also displays a similar positional awareness as Acerbi, and blocks a similar number of shots per 90 (0.85). What does let him slightly down, is his contribution to the attack build-up, as he doesn’t record great numbers for forward (5.72) and progressive passes (11.9).

However, given Acerbi matches Ogbonna defensively and betters him in attack contribution, Ogbonna may be used as a defensive-minded back-up option.

Leonardo Bonucci | Age: 33 | Club: Juventus

The oldest in the shortlist, at 33, Bonucci may well be in his final years at the highest level. While he is extremely efficient at on-ground battles by winning 72% on those, his aerial duels aren’t as impressive. But his superior on-ground ability isn’t just why he is on the list. What sets him apart from the pack, is his incredible ability to drive the ball forward and contribute to attacks. Among the players in consideration, Bonucci makes the most forward passes per 90 (25.7) and the second most progressive passes per 90 (12.51). As we see for Juventus, when paired with a defensive-minded centre-back, Bonucci takes on the responsibility of driving the ball forward and excels at it. A trait that could benefit the national side immensely.

Davide Biraschi | Age: 25 | Club: Genoa

While he isn’t great with his duels on the ground, he records the third-best numbers for aerial battles won (67%), from among the list. Of a similar mould as that of Bonucci, Biraschi’s strength lies in his ability to contribute to attacking build-up. He makes the second most progressive passes (11.15) and third most forward passes (24.61) per 90 towards attacking build-up. Like Bonucci, if he’s paired with a more defensive-minded centre-back, he can take on the responsibility of driving the ball forward. Not to forget is his very well documented comfort on the ball – he averages 2.71 dribbles per 90, the highest among the players on this list which averages a mere 0.39.

Definitely a good understudy to Bonucci!

Alessio Romagnoli | Age: 25 | Club: Milan

As per pure data, Romagnoli is a little bit of everything kind of a player. One who could take on defensive/offensive responsibilities at will, given he’s good at both but not the best at either. He wins a decent near 69% of his on-ground duels while not being much of a success aerially. He records the third-best PAdj interceptions in the list at 7.56 per 90, indicating his sound positional awareness. He is also fairly decent while driving the ball forward as he makes an average of near 21 forward passes per game.

Romagnoli is an option that adds solid depth to the squad, and can be a weapon to use when switching things up tactically, one way or the other.

Rafael Tolói | Age: 29 | Club: Atalanta

Playing for this season’s wonder team in Serie A – Atalanta, he has on numerous occasions stated that he would love to play for the Italy national side if given a chance. The data shows that he should at the very least be considered. Like Romagnoli, as per purely data analysis, he is a little bit of everything player. He wins nearly 69% of his defensive duels on the ground, a fairly average 60% of his aerial duels. While he isn’t as good in positional awareness as Romagnoli, what sets him apart and gets him noticed is his super ability to contribute to the attacks. His contribution to attacks is almost at par with Bonucci, as he makes the most progressive passes per 90 (12.65) and third most forward passes per 90 (23.74) among the players on the list.

While there are players like Cabaco and Izzo who show superior positional awareness than some in the above shortlist, and like Abraham who has better defensive statistics than some on the list, they don’t quite fare as good on other attributes. The aim of this analysis was to arrive at Italy’s best available options at centre-back while taking into account all of the three key attributes – defensive ability, positional awareness and ball progression. This is because only players who display competitive statistics on each of the attributes can give the national side an edge over the rest. These players, when used tactfully in pairings, can provide Italy with a solid backline to rely on – defensively and offensively.

Conclusion

Italy has some really good options defensively. With players excelling in either one or more of the three attributes, to pick a shortlist of six was cruel. However, we have tried to arrive at the best bets that could give Italy an edge when used in tactful pairings.

Izzo, Cabaco and Bani are all incredibly good in each of their areas of strength – either defensively, positional or ball playing. But the analysis considers overall statistics and how they may fare with the remaining options to add the x-factor to the Italy side. Given that there’s about a year to the next international stage, any one of them could raise their game and stake claim for a spot. For now, it is safe to say that the options and depth available tilts towards a wow, and is certainly not a woe.