Saturday evening’s LaLiga matchup between Real Madrid and Girona is poised to be one of the most highly anticipated matches of the campaign. It marks the meeting of Spain’s two most dominant forces this season, both of which boast impressive free-scoring attacking output with the league’s two most prolific goal scorers, Artem Dovbyk and Jude Bellingham. This contest has the possibility of providing substantial title-altering outcomes for both sides, with first-place Real Madrid taking on second-place Girona. With just a two-point gap separating the two before play, Madrid has the opportunity to take charge and open up a bit of breathing room with a victory — crucially important ahead of their upcoming fixture congestion with the reintroduction of the UEFA Champions League knockout stage.
Real Madrid, whilst sitting nicely at the top of the division, have experienced somewhat of a tumultuous season to this point, heavily impacted by long-term injuries and periods of adjustment and tactical adaptation. The departure of Karim Benzema in the summer window and the subsequent decision not to find a long-term striker replacement has caused young forwards like Vinicius Junior and Rodrygo to shoulder the majority of the attacking burden. Summer acquisition Jude Bellingham has announced himself on one of the world’s biggest stages, being largely responsible for their success so far, representing a beacon of solidity and someone Carlo Ancelotti can certainly depend upon in crucial moments.
Girona’s meteoric rise under Míchel has been nothing short of a fairytale story which has gripped football fans around the world. Having been likened to the miraculous efforts of title-winning Leicester City in the 2015/16 season, Girona possesses a remarkable core group of somewhat underrated players who have guided them towards the top of the table. Their impressive attacking structure and stout defensive tactics have kept them in the hunt for not only Champions League qualification but also a shot at becoming Spanish champions.
This tactical analysis will begin to delve into the possible lineups and formations that we can anticipate seeing when these two take to battle on Saturday evening. We will highlight certain strategies and avenues for tactical superiority that could provide the cutting edge in such a fiercely contested matchup, with an analysis of their efforts thus far.
Predicted lineups
Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid side will look to set up in their favoured diamond 4-4-2 formation, something fans of Los Blancos have become accustomed to throughout the 2023/24 season. As of late, Ukrainian goalkeeper Andriy Lunin has been preferred to Kepa in between the sticks, protected by a back line of Mendy, Nacho, Carvajal and Vazquez. Much of the pre-match discussion has revolved around the status of critical central defender Antonio Rüdiger, with his match fitness in question, having picked up a thigh injury against Getafe and being absent in the Madrid derby last Sunday.
Madrid’s midfield quartet would expected to be comprised of Kroos, Camavinga, Valverde and Bellingham, with Tchouameni returning from suspension to add more talent to Ancelotti’s arsenal alongside the ever-consistent Luka Modric. In their previous fixture, Madrid settled with a strike partnership of Rodrygo and Brahim Diaz, with the latter deputising for Brazilian talent Vinicius Jr after experiencing a neck injury during pre-match warmups. With the injury only being minor, it can be assumed he will be ready to lead the line on Saturday, revitalising their dynamic and electric attacking threat.
For the opposition, Girona’s formation of choice has often been variations of the 4-2-3-1, often translating to 4-1-4-1, especially when needing to provide more defensive solidity. Keeper Paulo Gazzaniga has had a formidable season protecting their goal, with a defensive line of Miguel Gutiérrez, Yan Couto, Eric García and Arnau Martinez. Star player Aleix García will look to orchestrate from the base of midfield, alongside Iván Martin dropping deeper to form a double pivot. We can expect exciting wingers Savio and Tshyankov to be supported by Portu through the middle, all aiming to provide top scorer Dovbyk as he returns from injury to lead the line.
The preparation for this game has been marred by suspension for the Catalan side, with notable omissions expected from Daley Blind and Yangel Herrera due to the accumulation of yellow cards. Another key figure missing from the sideline will be head coach Míchel after he was dismissed late on in their previous fixture with Real Sociedad. How Girona will fair without three incredibly important and experienced figures in their biggest game of the season will certainly test their mental fortitude in the face of adversity.
A potential shootout
When the two most effective sides in the final third matchup against one another, it would not be wrong to suggest that we can expect a high-scoring affair determined by moments of magic and precision. With Real Madrid and Girona currently achieving 2.1 and 2.3 goals per game, respectively, so far this season, this emerges as a clear indication of their attacking successes and league position. Madrid have not let the loss of Benzema hamper their offensive output, currently boasting a LaLiga shot differential of +152 (+6.6 per game), implying that their relentless attacking approach and technical prowess are crucial when overpowering opponents in and around the penalty area.
Girona also pride themselves on their efficiency in the final third, having massively outperformed their expected goals figure of 40.3 xG by racking up 52 goals so far this season- a figure which tops all other sides in their division. Míchel’s philosophy regarding attacking overloads and his utilisation of pinpoint passers like Aleix Garcia and Daley Blind have seen his side become extremely overwhelming in the final third. Their ‘gung-ho’ approach is something they seem to be very comfortable with – outscoring the opposition to win the game. Girona find themselves regaining the ball high up the pitch and translating it into crucial goalscoring opportunities with a PPDA score of 11.5 (sixth-highest in LaLiga). But with this in mind, they fail to waste opportunities by overthinking attacking scenarios, currently holding a league-lowest figure of 1.60 m/s when looking at their progression up the pitch. This would suggest that their slow and intricate offensive sequences are critical for crafting the perfect goalscoring opportunity.
Madrid’s glaring weakness
For all of Real Madrid’s heroics thus far, you could suggest that they have had a touch of fortune in the defensive department. Having only conceded 15 goals from an xGA (expected goals allowed) of 22.1, there are suggestions that they have been fortunate not to concede more. And they are not without their weaknesses, with one clear element for Girona to target in an attempt to emerge victorious at the Santiago Bernabéu.
It was evident in their previous game against fierce rivals Atlético that Real Madrid had clear vulnerability with their defensive aerial presence- something that proved to be their eventual undoing in the final minutes. With a makeshift centre-back partnership of Nacho and traditional full-back Carvajal, they lack the verticality and aerial prowess associated with players like Rüdiger or Militão. Aerial duel success is one of the weaker points of the two starting Madrid central defenders, with Carvajal having a 38.1% success rate and Nacho with 57.7%. This pushed Atlético to unload with crosses into the penalty area, with Llorente converting a header in second-half stoppage time to snatch away the three points.
This plays into the hands of Girona quite well, with Míchel’s side often working the ball into wider areas to promote crossing towards the talismanic figure of Dovbyk. By creating overloads on one of the flanks, they also possess the quality to quickly switch play and isolate opposing full-backs against their talented and technical wingers. With the likes of Aleix García and Miguel Gutiérrez also looking to whip balls into the box from the half-spaces, it is clear how Girona can be more fruitful against the hosts and look to prey on their minimal weaknesses.
With Rüdiger trending towards returning, that will give Madrid fans some much-needed confidence- but how many minutes will he manage whilst looking not to reaggravate his recent injury?
Defensive line deficiency
It must be remembered that Girona don’t hold all the cards in this tie, with weaknesses of their own that Real Madrid will look to exploit. For all the positives associated with their stern counter-press and compactness stifling opposition attacks at the earliest opportunity, there are glaring problems should this be bypassed. The depth of their defensive line has been a consistent issue, with opposition players looking to capitalise on these issues by playing passes in behind.
This was evident in their fixture against Atlético earlier in the season, where the disjointed defensive line was undone by a line-breaking pass from De Paul, with Morata maintaining the pace and composure to finish the 1-on-1 past Gazzaniga. The main reason for this issue revolves around the Girona defenders lacking the sheer pace and athleticism to track these runs in behind, with the likes of Daley Blind and David Lopez at the latter stages of their careers. With the full-backs often progressing forward into the middle third to combat potential counter-attacks, their final line can sometimes become disjointed and leave gaps for the attackers to make use of a deeper line.
This will be music to the ears of Carlo Ancelotti’s side, for what they lack in a recognised number 9, they utilise the explosive movement of their forwards to terrorise and stretch the opposition. With Vinicius Jr looking to return, Madrid will see this as a perfect opportunity to use his raw speed to their benefit- something we witnessed in their 4-1 demolition of Barcelona in January. The technical prowess of their midfielders also bodes well in their effort to deliver perfectly weighted passes to dismantle any Girona resistance should they look to drop deeper.
Conclusion
In conclusion, this tactical analysis would begin to suggest that Saturday evening’s match-up has the potential to be an incredibly entertaining affair. With so much at stake, the tactical variations from both managers will be incredibly insightful and potentially look to minimise the aforementioned vulnerability from both Real Madrid and Girona. Whilst there is so much of the season left to play, we can’t help but think that this match will provide a real psychological boost for the victor. Madrid will look to lock into their deeply engrained winning mentality, something we have seen so often in both domestic and European competitions. The new kids on the block, Girona, will not go down without a fight, though, as they look to emerge victorious against the only top-four side they have failed to beat thus far.
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