We are now in the second half of the EFL season, with clubs from League Two, One, and the Championship nearing the 30-game mark for the 2023/24 campaign. As always, we’ve seen plenty of surprise packages, teams underperforming, and excelling expectations – we’ve also seen a high number of managerial changes. One club that was forced to bring in a new manager was Notts County after Luke Williams was appointed as Swansea City’s new boss earlier this month.
Williams did an extraordinary job at County, guiding the club back to the football league for the first time since 2018/19, and the club enjoyed an excellent first half of the season as they established themselves as playoff contenders. At the time of writing, the Magpies are still on the hunt for a new permanent manager, with midfielder Jim O’Brien and coaches Tom Weal and Joao Alves taking temporary charge of the first team. Despite playing National League football just last season, many EFL fans had cited County as promotion contenders this season as well – a credit to Luke Williams’ work prior to his exit. And, while the club are living up to that expectation, currently sixth in the league, their defensive record could be the one thing that holds them back – they conceded five goals in their last match away at struggling Grimsby Town.
Grimsby finished 11th last season – a very respectable first campaign back in League Two after a spell in non-league, but find themselves unable to replicate that formula, with the club currently sitting in 20th place. They deserve credit for their performance against County in their recent 5-5 draw, taking advantage of their opponent’s defensive woes while their own struggles at the back were also exploited.
This tactical analysis will discuss some of the key tactical elements of the 10-goal thriller between Grimsby and Notts County, with the analysis looking at why the game was so incredibly open despite the away side (Notts County) having a large share of possession. Additionally, we will look at Notts County’s defensive inconsistency this season, as this is not the first time they’ve shipped a high number of goals in a game. While this tactical analysis will feature a discussion on Grimsby’s attacking tactics in this fixture, the focus is largely on County and their defensive troubles.
Before we go ahead with this analysis, everyone at Total Football Analysis would like to express our sincere condolences to the family, loved ones, friends, and teammates of Grimsby Town academy player Cameron Walsh and his father, Dave, who both tragically passed recently.
Lineups
Despite shipping six goals in their previous league fixture in a 6-1 defeat at home to Walsall, Grimsby manager David Artell opted against changing formation and again shaped up in a 4-2-3-1, with the midfield unit showing real cohesion and fluidity in possession and high energy off the ball. He only made two personnel changes, too, with central defender Luke Waterfall being replaced by Harvey Rodgers. Central midfielder Kieran Green also lost his place; Chris Vernam was the incoming body, starting on the right flank, with Harry Clifton moving into the advanced central position.
Possession-based Notts County are currently trying to continue Luke Williams’ tactics while the search for their new manager remains ongoing, with the Magpies lining up in their expected 3-4-1-2. The wide players – Jodi Jones and Aaron Nemane, played an essential role in possession, but their attacking nature raises questions about the contributions to their defensive roles. Dan Crowley had a crucial game in the advanced central midfielder area, as we will discuss later in this tactical analysis.
How County exploited Grimsby’s off-the-ball intensity
Visitors Notts County have built themselves quite the reputation of for playing a possession-based game where they often look to stretch the pitch and push the opposition deep into their own half. Grimsby fancied a fight, though, and hit County a more intense approach off-the-ball (as the next segment of analysis talks about). While Grimsby found some success with these tactics, County were able to exploit the space left by Grimsby’s approach, giving County more attacking space.
This double image perfectly captures Notts County’s approach in possession and how they balanced their usual tactics with the aim of exploiting space in Grimsby’s midfield zones. The top image shows us something we see most weeks in terms of County’s shape – a wide shape where the midfield and defensive units almost become one unit as they look to build up the pitch.
What took them by surprise on some occasions was Grimsby’s courage to press with high intensity in midfield areas, but a team of County’s quality were always going to benefit from this. While Aden Baldwin had the ball on this occasion, John Bostock made a bursting forward run slightly off-centre in the opposition half – an extremely clever decoy run that created a huge space for Baldwin to dribble into before playing a direct ball into the path of forward Macauley Langstaff.
As we mentioned in the lineup segment, midfielder Dan Crowley was an essential cog in County’s attacking machine, just as he has been all season. In a game where exploiting space in opposition central midfield zones was a key factor, a player of Crowley’s quality was the perfect fit. His subtle off-the-ball movements were often simple yet effective, just as the one above – hovering in that space away from markers as he awaited the pass.
Crowley’s impact this season cannot be understated – he somewhat goes under the radar in terms of media coverage due to how well some of his teammates have been doing. Still, his record of 10 goals and seven assists in League Two this season is a tremendous contribution.
We can’t talk about Notts County’s attack without mentioning Jodi Jones. The creative wizard’s tally of five goals is respectable for an attacking wingback, but his current total of 16 assists is phenomenal. The current record for most assists in a League Two season belongs to Sean McConville, who bagged 17 assists in 2016/17 – it’s fair to say Jones is firmly on his way to smashing that record.
His assists against Grimsby mirrored much of what we see in the graphic above – whipping crosses in from deep areas into dangerous zones inside the box for County’s talented strike force to feed on.
Grimsby – Taking the game to the Magpies
As we mentioned, Notts County set out to dominate football matches. However, Grimsby Town had other plans and had no intention of sitting back and allowing their adversaries to play on their own terms. Grimsby’s tactics off-the-ball played a considerable part in the game being as high-scoring as it turned out to be, as we discuss in this segment of analysis.
While Notts County’s wide men have been extremely effective in an attacking sense, there are moments where their defensive abilities let them down and ultimately provide opportunities for the opposition. Their work rate is not to be questioned, but there have been times where their wide men have been beaten in 1v1 situations where more defensive players would have been comfortable.
The image above provides another example of Grimsby using it to good effect. In a rare moment of controlled possession, they wasted no time in trying to get the ball forward into space behind the Notts County high line. In this case, Jodi Jones was required to play a left-back role. The floated ball into space was of decent quality, but Jones would have stood a far better chance of containing the Grimsby wide man if he simply chased him back and stood up to him to make a 1v1 situation. Instead, he made a desperate-looking effort to jump and block the lofted through the ball – the result was Grimsby having a free chance to put a ball into the box with no pressure on the ball. Their defenders dealt with the cross very poorly, and Grimsby punished them.
Despite Notts County having 58% of possession, Grimsby were able to be a significant attacking threat (which you may have guessed already by their five goals) – registering 23 shots (four more than County) with an xG of 3.64. While xG is usually better at reflecting a team’s attacking performance over multiple games, this tally gives a good indication of Grimsby’s attacking frequency despite having much less possession than County.
A significant factor in their attacking presence was their ability to capitalise in transitions, often hitting Notts County with quick breaks on the ball with supporting runners in space. This is depicted in the analysis image above – a ball punched into striker Danny Rose, followed by a quick series of passes to unleash a pass into space on the flank. This was in the game’s opening minutes, with the attack ending with an effort on goal – an early sign of things to come.
And now, a look at the aforementioned intensity off-the-ball. In these areas, Grimsby liked to have a man pressing the ball immediately, with nearby supporting County players being marked – this naturally increased Grimsby’s presence in these higher areas – coupling nicely with the intensity they applied, forcing County to play quickly or just clear the ball long on occasion.
This approach had its benefits but also left Grimsby somewhat vulnerable in midfield, particularly centrally. Notts County have some highly technical players who can create something from nothing, players who can operate in tight spaces, and players who can be effective and creative against a low block, so affording that quality to have the ball in large open spaces in advanced areas of midfield is just asking to concede chances, just like the image above. This one ended with a goal after an assist from, you guessed it, Jodi Jones. This was a byproduct of their off-the-ball approach, which both gained and cost goals.
Notts County’s defensive inconsistency
While Notts County are League Two’s leaders in terms of goals scored and xG, their defensive performance and record are the main reasons they don’t find themselves closer to league leaders Stockport County. The Magpies deserve credit for being able to implement their possession-based tactics from last season into a higher league this campaign. Still, they have not been able to transfer their defensive dominance into England’s fourth tier – which is to be somewhat expected when stepping up a level. If they want to earn promotion, though, they need to shore up their defensive performance as we head into the final 20 or so games of the season.
Not only did County ship five goals in this game, but they also let in four in the previous game against Tranmere Rovers. Conceding a high number of goals has become a real weakness for the Magpies – as the graph above confirms.
County conceded three or more goals in League Two this season on nine occasions. Only Swindon (10) and Doncaster (nine) have worse records in this regard. Compared to their promotion rivals, there’s no other way to say it, but nobody else concedes multiple goals like Notts County do. Inside the top half, only 12th-placed Gillingham have conceded 3+ goals on more than five occasions this season (six).
To really boost their odds of going up again, County need to somehow adapt their game to strengthen their defensive consistency – like Barrow, Mansfield, Stockport, and even Tranmere have done. County concede an average of 1.7 goals per 90 – the 7th worst record in the division. They have also conceded 48.21 xG against them this campaign – the third-highest total in League Two currently.
We’ve covered how their lack of true full-backs could contribute to their defensive record, but there have been multiple occasions where the effort to defend a cross has been poor, several occasions where players have not been marked efficiently, reactions to second balls have been slow, etc.
This example shows an example of poor marking of an opponent lurking outside the box. County have a strong enough presence to deal with any ball that could have been crossed into the box, but they failed to pick that lurking player up. Sam Austin (bottom right of image) is likely the only player who could have, and probably should have, marked the opponent, or at least made some yards up to get closer to him – this would have lowered the odds of the player firing the ball into the top corner from the 18-yard line. Credit must also go to the winger with the vision and technical quality to deliver the ball and the goalscorer himself for an elegant finish.
Teams that play a high line and try to dominate possession in the opponent’s half are always going to face moments where they must deal with a counterattack. This is something that Notts County have had trouble with from time to time, and the game against Grimsby was no different.
Credit to Grimsby, this was a well-executed move, but County’s failure to get players back into ideal positions quick enough hurt them, as did the poor reaction from the highlighted CB, where it looked as though he tried to guess which way the Grimsby player would take bell after receiving it – he guessed wrong, giving the forward a free hit on goal.
Conclusion
You never know which Notts County are going to turn up from week to week. From an entertainment perspective, they are a fantastic advert for League Two football as they have quality players as well as high-scoring games. But from an analytical perspective, they have some work to do if they want to fast-track their way to League One instead of playing League Two football again next season. Grimsby deserve credit for their performance on the ball – utilising their strengths while exploiting County’s weak spots.
Comments