Squad stability has been a staple of the majority of football’s most dominant sides over the years, and Liverpool under Jürgen Klopp fit right into that category. Yes, the Anfield club have spent big on a few players like Virgil van Dijk, Alisson Becker, and Darwin Núñez to name a few, but they have had a strong spine to the lineup for a number of years now, and that kind of stability played a huge role in their ascendancy to the top of world football, winning trophies like the UEFA Champions League and the Premier League.
However, all good things come to an end, and perhaps this season more than ever, we are seeing a decline in Liverpool’s ranks, particularly in midfield. For a while now, there has been talk of Klopp’s side being in desperate need of investment, with the engine room being the priority for many Reds fans. There is no reason to descend into complete panic yet as we have seen promising young players such as Harvey Elliot and Stefan Bajčetić take like a duck to water in terms of stepping up to the first team. Still, there is an urgent need for fresh faces in the midfield ranks, and Liverpool fans want one man — Jude Bellingham. We could talk and talk and talk about Bellingham’s qualities and why he would be a perfect fit for Liverpool, but there is one huge stumbling block, and that is the transfer fee, which is believed to be over £100m; Liverpool’s current financial situation may get in the way of that signing coming into fruition.
With all of that in mind, Liverpool could very face the task of rebuilding their midfield on a smaller budget than the fans would like. Using TFA’s in-house player similarity tool xGold, we have been able to identify some cheaper options that could meet Liverpool’s recruitment criteria. This data analysis will compare those players against Liverpool’s most common midfield trio — Fabinho, Jordan Henderson, and Thiago Alcântara. We have used statistics that line up with the play styles of each of those three players, and xGold has given us a set of players that are similar to each Liverpool midfielder, as this will give a more accurate analysis and will provide more clarity as to whether or not the selected players would suit Liverpool’s tactics.
Criteria
In line with how Liverpool like to act in transfer windows, the players pulled up by xGold:
- Are aged 25 or under at the time of writing
- Play their club football in the top tiers of Belgium, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Portugal, or Spain
- Have a market value of €25m or less
Our xGold tool has picked the top 10 players for each position, ranked on their similarity to the Liverpool player in question. For instance, when we look at which players could replace Thiago, xGold has identified 10 players that match the above criteria and have a higher similarity rating to Thiago than the players outside of the top 10. It is worth noting that Fabinho, Henderson, and Thiago will all have a different set of players to compare against, but in some cases, players may appear for more than one position. The data used is taken from the current campaign.
Fabinho
While the suggestion of replacing Fabinho may raise a few eyebrows, it is important that the Brazilian turns 30 this year, and has produced a few poor performances this season. It is also important to remember that Liverpool may not have to dip into the market at all for this one with Bajčetić playing so well this campaign. Nevertheless, having a list of players ready to explore is a good idea. In line with Fabinho’s role, this segment of analysis will focus on defensive data, along with a brief analysis of on-the-ball efficiency.
We begin by getting some first impressions of the candidates to replace Fabinho. It goes without saying, whoever it eventually is has big boots to fill — and must excel defensively. The metric above, successful defensive actions, is what it says on the tin. It includes all defensive metrics, from defensive duels to interceptions and so on. As the chart tells us, Fabinho contributes 9.21 successful defensive actions per 90 minutes, which suggests that he keeps himself busy defensively despite Liverpool often dominating games.
A clutch of players boast a higher average than Fabinho, but the standout is Mats Wieffer of Feyenoord, who averages a whopping 14.09 successful defensive actions per game. Not only does this show defensive desire, but also consistency in success, a real solid individual in midfield. Not too far behind Wieffer is 20-year-old Johann Lepenant (Lyon), who successfully executes 12.29 defensive actions per 90.
Digging deeper into the defensive ability of the candidates, we will now provide analysis of their ability when it comes to defensive duels. While this metric would have been a factor in their successful defensive actions, looking at it this way also allows us to paint a picture of their tackling ability. Fabinho ranks at the lower end when it comes to the number of defensive duels he engages in (again, this is down to Liverpool’s game dominance), and ranks fairly average in the number of duels he wins, which currently stands at 59.65% for this season.
Wieffer and Lepenant stand out again, this time for the number of duels they attempt, but of the two, Lepenant’s success rate of 63.68% is superior. Looking elsewhere, we see strong contenders in Florentino Luís of Benfica and Azor Matusiwa (Reims), but the strongest of the lot is FC Twente’s Ramiz Zerrouki, who may rank below the group average for the number of attempts, but leads the way with his success rate of 67.25.
Breaking up the opposition play with an interception is an important ability for any outfield player, but an interception in midfield areas can really protect the defending unit. It is important to remember that the interception metric in the chart above is possession adjusted, to even the playing field in terms of the average amount of possession of each candidate’s team. With that in mind, Fabinho comes in with 6.7 (PAdj) interceptions per 90.
Mats Wieffer is really making a good impression of himself, isn’t he? To say he stands out here is an understatement, with the Feyenoord man averaging 11.28 (PAdj) interceptions per game — a significant increase on the record of any other play in the data set. Florentino Luís and Matusiwa show numbers than better Fabinho again, so we can’t ignore their contributions. The same can be said for Zerrouki.
Defending isn’t the only responsibility that Fabinho has for Liverpool. He is an important cog in the midfield machine, often tasked with shifting the ball forward either into midfield or wide areas. Fabinho is often the deeper midfielder, meaning a lot of his teammates are ahead of him, hence the data analysis of forward passes. Fabinho ranks in the lower left square, with an average of 12.93 passes per 90, with an accuracy of 77.24%.
Several players better those numbers on paper. The one that deserves the most credit is Benfica’s Florentina Luís, who averages a ridiculous 22.08 forward passes per 90, with an exceptional accuracy of 85.39, indicating a real consistent talent on the ball. Yet again, Matusiwa makes a positive appearance with a good number of passes per 90 combined with a healthy accuracy rating.
The second-highest accuracy rating of the group is recorded by Arouca midfielder Oriel Busquets. While he has the third-lowest average in terms of passes attempted (11.74), his accuracy of 82.18 is still an indication of a talented passer of the ball.
Jordan Henderson
Club captain Jordan Henderson has already seen his game time limited this season, making more appearances as a substitute than he would have been used to in previous years. The England international turns 33 in June, so the time for winding his career down may be on the horizon. Don’t get it twisted, though, Henderson has proven that he is still a valuable member of the current squad, often providing stability and balance to the side in games where they may struggle. The data used in this segment will involve a variety of important metrics, from duels to attack-minded passing.
Henderson is one of those players who will run his socks off and undertake both defensive and attacking responsibilities for his team. You may have seen him labelled as a “box-to-box” midfielder, and that is essentially what he is.
The chart above is a representation of acting in both defensive and attacking situations, showing the number of successful defensive and attacking actions per 90. So far this season, Henderson has clocked in an average of 6.87 successful defensive actions per 90, which is a fairly low average in comparison with the others involved. He does rank above average when it comes to attacking actions, averaging 1.85 per 90.
The player with the highest average attacking actions is Adem Zorgane of Belgian club Charleroi, who posts a match average of 3.02, indicating that he can be impactful in helping his team make progress in possession.
Meanwhile, Bayern Leverkusen’s Exequiel Palacios blows the competition away when it comes to defensive actions, registering 13.3 per 90 — the second highest was 10.56 by Nicolò Rovella, who is currently enjoying a fruitful season at Monza, on loan from Juventus. In fact, Rovella is the most central point on the graph, indicating that he performs well both defensively and offensively — traits that, in the context of these metrics in line with Henderson’s play style, could make him an ideal candidate.
Midfielders often tend to get involved in various duels all over the pitch, especially those like Henderson who cover a lot of ground. While we could cover each type of duel individually, a grouped analysis of all their duels combined could give a clearer picture of their physical ability. Maybe somewhat surprisingly, Henderson ranks rock bottom in terms of output, registering 10.2 duels per 90.
He does, however, rank second highest in the group when it comes to efficiency, recording a success rate of 54.84%. Only Nicolas Madsen of Westerlo trumps the Liverpool skipper with an impressive success rate of 56.34 — he interestingly ranks second bottom in duels per 90.
Perhaps the strongest of the group in terms of efficiency and attempts is Palacios, who records an average of 17.47 duels per 90, and matches it with a success rate of 54.52%, the third highest in both metrics. In a nutshell, he is aggressive but uses it wisely.
We looked at interceptions when analysing the candidates to take over from Fabinho, and it is once again relevant in Henderson’s role. And again, this data falls under the possession-adjusted banner. The former Sunderland man comes in at 5.72 (PAdj) interceptions per 90, which ranks lowly on the chart above, but when you consider Liverpool’s style and their potency in transitions, it isn’t a bad return.
Palacios gets another positive mention as he leads the way with an impressive 8.67 per 90, some way ahead of the second highest — Jon Moncayola (Osasuna) with 7.5. Both of these players seemingly possess the traits that Liverpool look for in terms of off-the-ball ability. Credit should also go to Zorgane, Evert Linthorst (Go Ahead Eagles) and Rovella who have all also posted positive numbers so far in this campaign.
While Henderson isn’t the first name that springs to mind when you hear the words “creative midfielder”, credit where credit is due, he’s got some high-quality assists under his belt from other years, and still gets himself involved on the ball. At the top level, every pass, even the supposed simple ones, have to be executed to a high quality consistently. Henderson averages 59.23 passes per 90 — the fourth highest of the data set — and has a decent accuracy of 85.35%.
While Zorgane has the highest average number of passes per 90, his accuracy is in the lower echelon of the data set, hinting at a potential inconsistency in his role. Palacios and Rovella are two names that continue to crop up in a positive light. It’s Rovella who comes out on top thanks to his average of 62.25 passes per 90 and his accuracy of 89.8%. Numbers like these for a young player could be a sign of a player destined for a successful career at the top level and could be something Liverpool look toward.
Building on the last group of data, this next graph allows us to get a clearer idea of how much the players can contribute to the progress of possession via passing. Henderson is known for his reliability in possession, rarely giving the ball away, and he retains that consistency when it comes to forward passes. He averages 16.78 forward passes per 90 (3rd highest of the set) and boasts the highest accuracy in this metric with a rate of 75.25. Madsen and Luuk Brouwers (Utrecht) both post numbers that paint them in a positive light, with the latter having a slightly lower accuracy rate but a far higher involvement.
Thiago
Spanish midfielder Thiago has had an illustrious career, and with him turning 32 in April this year, one must wonder how many more years the former Barcelona and Bayern Munich midfielder has left at the top of the game. While he lacks in some areas such as defensive ability and pace, for example, he more than makes up for with his incredible technical ability and brilliant passing skill. When he does leave Anfield, it will be those attributes that the side will miss most, so that will be our focus in this segment.
Thiago is one of the best passers of his generation: he can carve a defence open with one pass. We have decided to cut straight to the nitty gritty of passing data — there’s not much point looking at the overall passing of Thiago’s potential replacement as Liverpool will want someone who can have a direct impact on their attacks. Thiago can offer a strong contribution to possession progression and can pick out a through ball when the chance presents itself. With an average of 1.27 through passes per 90, he is the third most likely to execute a through ball in the group and has the second-highest accuracy rate with 57.14%.
The highest accuracy rate in the group is 60% and that accolade goes to Sven Mijnans of AZ Alkmaar, who has achieved that proficient number with 0.75 through balls per 90. While he has one of the lower averages in the group, his high accuracy is proof of quality and proof that he can be a danger in key moments.
In many of Liverpool’s games, they utilise long passes in a range of areas and ways. From defence-splitting passes from deep to long switch passes to the opposite flank, it is an important factor of Klopp’s tactics in getting through the midfield third at times. Thiago’s numbers are proof of this: not only does he have the highest average for long passing (6.98), but he is also the most accurate (74.03%).
Unsurprisingly, nobody really gets close to those numbers, but looking at the 10 candidates in isolation, two players stand out – Rovella and Bilal El Khannous stand out from the rest of the pack, minus Thiago. Rovella offers a slightly lower accuracy but a higher number of attempts, with El Khannous offering the reverse. The latter is just 18 years old, and is enjoying a season with Genk that will soon be turning the heads of European clubs.
Passing forward is one thing, but passing into the final third is the next step up from that, and indicates attacking intent. Again, Thiago offers the highest average in this area and the third-highest accuracy. Rovella’s name keeps popping up, doesn’t it? Juventus must be rubbing their hands at the progress he is making at Monza. He offers a slightly less average than Thiago but has an impressive accuracy of 80.99% — second only to Julien Ponceau of Lorient (84.88%). While Ponceau offers the higher accuracy, Rovella may well be the better option of the two as he almost doubles the attempt average of the Lorient player.
Speaking of Thiago’s technical ability, his dribbling isn’t half bad either, despite his lack of speed. He has a brilliant ability to glide with the ball to get into better positions, but his Liverpool role doesn’t require a high amount of dribbling. This season, Thiago averages 2.08 dribbles per 90, with a success rate of 56.52 — putting him near the mid-point of the group.
Rovella boasts the highest success rate of the group with 73.33% while averaging the second lowest attempt rate (1.04), a combination of results that could actually suit Liverpool — they may not require their midfielder to carry the ball constantly, but Rovella is clearly reliable when tasked with doing so.
Dani Silva of Vitória Guimarães is in a similar position to Rovella with a strong dribbling success rate (72%) from a lower average (1.33), so he may be an alternative option if Liverpool go down that route. If they want a player who has a high tendency to dribble, then Kenzo Goudmijn of Excelsior would be a fine option. The 21-year-old averages 2.81 dribbles per 90, the second-highest of the group with a good success rate of 62.86.
Depending on how much Liverpool want to spend, there are several potentially good options under the market value of €25m. We must keep in mind that although the players involved have had their data pitted against each other, the ability level of their respective leagues will differ, so their strong numbers may not necessarily translate to the Premier League. From the data analysis, we can narrow it down to two players from each position.
Fabinho:
The first player that looks to be of high quality is Mats Wieffer. He posted good numbers in several areas, particularly in defensive attributes. The 23-year-old currently plays for Feyenoord and has a market value of €7m, so could be a viable option for the Reds.
Florentino Luis would also be a sensible option, especially if they wanted a player who has shown a consistent ability on the ball as well as off the ball. The 23-year-old plays his football for Benfica and has a market value of €15m.
Henderson:
Nicolò Rovella could be a star in the making judging by the data he has posted so far this season. The Italian midfielder looks to have good qualities on and off the ball, but Juventus could be reluctant to let him go for his market value of €12m.
If Liverpool wanted a slightly more aggressive player with high energy but one who channels it well, then Exequiel Palacios is the man. The Bayern Leverkusen man has demonstrated defensive qualities in bucket loads and doesn’t shy away from on-the-ball duties. His market value of €15m could make him a good long-term investment.
Thiago:
Nicolò Rovella would also be a good pick for this role as well as the Henderson role. The Monza man has demonstrated several areas of quality in his data, with strong passing data being a consistent factor.
There are a host of players who could be selected for this second spot. El Khannous registers good dribbling data and for most passing areas, strong data too. His market value of €4.5m makes him an absolute steal, but it could take a while for Klopp to integrate the 18-year-old.
Comments