FC Twente are a team on a mission at the moment.

After suffering relegation from the Eredivisie in the 2017-18 season, they topped the Dutch second tier in the following season to return to the top flight in 2019. They have since virtually improved year-on-year, moving from a 14th-place finish in 2019-20 and 10th in 2020-21, all the way to fourth in 2021-22 and fifth last season. The Tukkers currently sit fourth this season as well, with 33 points from 15 matches, level with third-placed AZ Alkmaar. They have scored 32 goals and conceded 17, proving to be an entertaining side to watch at either end of the football pitch.

One of their star performers this term has been young forward Manfred Ugalde, who has set the Eredivisie alight. He has played in all of their league games so far, starting 14, and has recorded five goals and five assists. That means he has already breached the number of goal contributions he recorded in the league last season (nine – eight goals and one assist) in nine fewer matches.

What has led to this improvement? In this scout report and tactical analysis, we aim to provide an analysis of Ugalde’s start to the league season, his role within Twente’s tactics and explain how he has proven to be a productive performer for a Twente side on the rise.

Background

Ugalde began his career at Deportivo Saprissa in his home country, permanently making it into their first team in 2019 aged just 17. He made 52 appearances for Saprissa, recording 17 goals and 10 assists, before moving to Belgian lower-tier team Lommel a year later. After just a year in Lommel, for whom he scored 11 times in 23 matches, the Costa Rican was loaned to Twente in July 2021 for two seasons. Across the 2021-22 and 2022-23 campaigns, Ugalde played 59 games across competitions, scoring 13 goals and laying out six assists.

While those numbers don’t exactly stand out, Twente placed their trust in the forward, signing him on a permanent deal and handing him a four-year contract this summer. Ugalde, who made his debut for Costa Rica back in 2020, has won six caps for his nation, scoring once in 377 minutes of action.

Profile

Twente have largely utilized a 4-2-3-1 formation this season while also occasionally reverting to a 4-3-3. In both formations, Ugalde operates as their centre-forward, with Daan Rots and Michel Vlaps on either flank. In the 4-2-3-1, the trio are supported by Sam Steijn, another emerging talent in the Eredivisie, who leads the team in league goals this season with nine; Ugalde is third with five behind Steijn and veteran Ricky van Wolfswinkel (seven).

Ugalde’s heatmap below shows that he isn’t merely limited to the box and often drops deeper in the final third and, at times, into midfield to support Twente’s attacks.

His most intense zones are understandably down the middle, though he also favours operating from half-spaces on the left. The latter comes through in his underlying stats as well, as he averages 0.16 through balls (82nd percentile) and 0.08 switches (78th percentile) per 90 in the league. He averages 1.39 key passes per 90, placing him in the 86th percentile, as well.

Ugalde’s goals and scoring areas

A point that works in Ugalde’s favour regarding his productivity is his volume. The Costa Rican attempts 3.99 shots per 90 in the Eredivisie this season, getting 1.55 of those on target for a decent ratio of nearly 39%. However, this also simultaneously contributes to lower goals per shot (0.10 per 90; 30th percentile) and goals per shot on target (0.26; 34th percentile). Ugalde’s shot map below shows the typical location of his shots, with his average shot distance amounting to 14.0 yards.

While he does get a fair few shots away, the map shows that he often struggles to find the corners. Rather, Ugalde’s attempts are more central, which could be an aspect to work on to improve his goal tally. To his credit, though, five of his eight shots from outside the box have been on target, and he is only marginally underperforming his expected goals (xG) figure of 5.76, which means his start to the league season is certainly sustainable and not merely a flash in the pan.

Much 0f Ugalde’s goalscoring prowess is assisted by his positioning and movement. Consider the sequence below from the very first minute 0f Twente’s 3-1 win over Go Ahead Eagles earlier this month. Ugalde (marked in black) is initially positioned between two defenders and quickly understands that there is a gap in that defence that can be exploited. By the time his teammate (marked in red) prepares to cross into the box, he gets to the blind side of the defender to score with a free header into the bottom corner.

While this is more calculated from the 22-year-old, there have also been moments this season when merely his quick reflexes have helped him react early to potential second chances. This was the case in Twente’s Europa Conference League playoff match away to Fenerbahce. Ugalde makes a late run into the box and is found perfectly by his teammate, but his first-time effort canons back off the post. However, he is by far the quickest to react, instantly changing direction to meet and convert the rebound into the empty net.

As explained earlier, Ugalde is a volume shooter, which at times leads to bad decisions, such as in this sequence below from his team’s 2-1 win over Feyenoord in October. He receives the ball in a promising position and has multiple options for the pass on either side of him. However, Ugalde instead chooses to shoot, firing a tame effort into the palms of the goalkeeper, leaving his teammate on either wing (marked in white on the bottom-right slide) visibly frustrated.

Creativity: Ugalde excels in finding pockets of space

To understand Ugalde’s role in orchestrating and creating plays for Twente, it’s important to take a look at their positioning on and off the ball. In the following sequence, where they regain possession in defence, one of the full-backs stays narrow while the other advances forward. The two holding midfielders drop, but they are risky outlets as they are each surrounded by at least one defender. Ugalde is initially the furthest forward.

A couple of passes later, one of the midfielders pushes forward while the other drops further, opening up a passing outlet. Simultaneously, Twente’s wingers move higher up the pitch while Ugalde holds his position or comes further back to receive the ball and turn with it if needed. The midfielder chooses to go long towards the wing, and by the time the winger gets to the ball, Ugalde has sprinted towards the box to be available for a cross.

While Twente went over the top in this situation, consider the sequence below where they move the ball patiently further up the pitch but find themselves trapped in one sense due to the off-ball pressure applied by their opponents. This time, Ugalde (marked in black) creates a passing avenue for his midfield by dropping from his position at the edge of the box and helps the team find a flow with his quick feet and passing to piece together a move.

Thus, when Twente are more patient in their build-up, Ugalde receives more link-up opportunities to affect play with his football IQ. This is evident in the following play from the team’s 4-2 comeback win over Excelsior last weekend. Ugalde (marked in black) plays a quick one-two to get into the box before buying himself time with a neat touch. He then looks up and finds a teammate (arrow) whose effort is blocked.

Both of these plays briefly speak to Ugalde’s ability to carry the ball forward as well. The forward averages 22.42 carries per 90 in the Eredivisie this season. While his progressive carrying distance (38.89 yards per 90) only places him in the 62nd percentile among his peers, his tendency to string together quick one-twos and pick his pass compensates for the same.

The passing aspect can also be seen in Twente’s counterattacks, as evident from this sequence from their 1-0 win over Heerenveen back in September. After receiving the ball on the left, Ugalde quickly looks up before a defender can close him down to spot the open man (marked in white) and then plays an almost perfect pass to him. Unfortunately, he doesn’t get an assist as the opposing goalkeeper comes up with a superb save.

While these two situations didn’t lead to goals, they provide a snapshot of Ugalde’s ability to find space and angles to create chances for his teammates. Additionally, Ugalde’s five assists in the Eredivisie this season prove that there is a tangible final product to his play.

One such example is this dime against Almere in a 4-1 win back in August. The Costa Rican (marked in black) is on the edge of the screen in the top-left panel as he makes a run between two defenders to reach a ball (marked in red) played over the top. He outpaces his markers to get to the pass and cuts inside before playing a perfect pass to his teammate, who taps it into an empty net.

Another example is the following play from the win over Excelsior. As seen in one of his goals in the earlier section, Ugalde once again monitors the spaces within the defence and peels away from his marker to win the header from a cross. Rather than going for goal, though, he unselfishly nods it back across goal for his teammate (marked in white) to head into an empty net to give the team a 3-2 lead in the 80th minute.

Weaknesses

There’s a lot to like about Manfred Ugalde and the way in which he impacts Twente’s football. However, the pros do come with a few cons, such as the odd play where he fails to consider all of his options, leading to a rash decision, which was highlighted earlier in this article.

Additionally, Ugalde seemingly possesses a liking for a first-time pass, often looking to catch the defence off-balance. While this certainly works well on occasion, as illustrated in the examples above, it can also lead to Twente losing possession as his teammates themselves are often caught off-guard.

Consider the play below, where Ugalde (marked in black) does extremely well to leave his marker in no-man’s land to get to a long ball first. However, rather than making use of the space he has ahead of him, he looks for a low-percentage first-time nod-on to a teammate, who seems to be decelerating ever so slightly to collect a pass that should ideally come to him a second later.

In the bottom right panel, you can see his response to it as he has his hands on his face, realizing that a touch may have been the better decision. This suggests he understands his errors; all that’s left is to work on it on the training ground!

Ugalde leaning towards a first-time pass also explains his fairly pedestrian passing numbers. In the Eredivisie this term, he has completed only 64.4% of his attempted passes per 90, including only 69.8% on passes covering a distance of five to 15 yards. For a player whose creativity is key to Twente’s play, especially against high-pressing teams, he also records a progressive passing distance of only 36.6 yards per 90, ranking in just the 62nd percentile of his peers in the league.

Understandably, his issues in this area also extend to his penalty box activity. Ugalde averages just 0.65 passes into the final third (38th percentile) and 0.57 passes into the penalty area (62nd percentile) per 90 in the league this term. He also loves a cross, attempting 1.06 per game; however, his successful crosses into the area disappointingly stand at 0.00 per 90.

Summary

Manfred Ugalde has been one of the more interesting players to watch in an entertaining 2023-24 Eredivisie season so far. His ability to drop into and create space has been invaluable to Twente, who are looking to finish in the top four and potentially fight for a UEFA Champions League spot.

Ugalde is certainly a threat, and some teams seem to know it, as he has suffered 3.10 fouls per game in the league this term. However, at 22, he is understandably not the finished product, and some of the glaring weaknesses in his game still need work. Regardless, the Eredivisie has shown numerous times that it is a great league for developing players, and Ugalde is seemingly at the right place to improve his trade, which already looks extremely promising.