The Premier League 2023/24 season is entering its thrilling final phase. While it’s a fun challenge to predict the champion, the real excitement lies in the unpredictable battle at the bottom of the table. At this point, the relegation picture is far from clear, adding a layer of suspense to the season’s climax.

Sheffield United are the likeliest to go down first, with only 16 points from a possible 66 and 10 points from safety with six games to go. Burnley, who were promoted with a lot of hype, have failed to meet the expectations and have only 20 points to their name. Luton Town, Everton, or Nottingham Forest are expected to be the third team to get relegated this season, with only two points separating the three teams.

The below visualisation compares the points tally of the relegated teams from the last 10 seasons.

Huddersfield, in the Premier League for a couple of seasons during 2017/18 and 2018/19, were relegated with the lowest points tally with 16 points to their name in 2019. This season, Sheffield United currently have 16 points but do still have a chance of bettering Huddersfield’s tally.

Aston Villa, currently flying high in Europe, were relegated in 2016 after finishing with just 17 points and ending up 20th in the table. Sheffield United 2023/24 could end up with the third-lowest tally if they do not surpass Norwich City’s 21 and 22 points in 2019/20 and 2021/22, respectively.

Newcastle United, another club at the top end of the table in recent years, were involved in several relegation battles only a few years back. Their tally of 37 points in the 2015/16 season was not enough to help them stay in the division — the highest points tally for a relegated team over the last 10 years.

Hull City finished with 35 points in 2014/15, but they were relegated and have not returned since. Burnley, relegated as recently as 2022, finished with 35 points, but that was not enough for them to stay in the division.

Everton, Nottingham Forest, and Luton Town will want to avoid making history, but one of them is surely going down in a few weeks; each of these teams will want to secure the points needed before it’s too late, and they will want to beat Newcastle United’s 2015/16 points tally.