Every season, the race for both the title and European playoffs in the Belgian Pro League is something that is a must-follow. This season, however, the race for the European playoffs could be one of the most hotly contested races outside of the top five leagues in Europe.
Currently, 5th all the way to 12th have a legitimate shot at having post-season football come late April, with this tactical analysis looking a little closer at each of the sides contesting for the four places. Also included will be a small scout report on a key player from each side that could be the difference for them over the next six weeks.
5th Place: KAA Gent – 45 points
Gent currently sit in 5th place in the Belgian Pro League, but at the time of writing, are only one point back of the championship playoffs and current champions Club Brugge. The Buffalo’s form has been rather inconsistent as of late domestically, with the club having 2W-1D-2L in their last five league matches. They are however through to the last 16 of the UEFA Europa Conference League, with the club hosting Turkish side Istanbul Basaksehir on Thursday in the first leg.
When looking at the regular season run-in for Hein Vanhaezebrouck’s side, it is a rather favourable one. Their next three matches are against sides in and around the relegation zone, with them playing away to Zulte-Waregem, home to KAS Eupen, and away to RFC Seraing.
Following that is a huge tie against second-place Royale Union Saint-Gilloise at home, before finishing off the regular season away to Mechelen and at home to Oostende. With the position they sit in the table currently, plus their relatively easy schedule on the home stretch, without a doubt they will be playing some sort of post-season football this season.
Key Player: Gift Orban
When trying to pick out a player that could be key to Gent’s hopes of pushing on to potentially the Championship playoffs, Gift Orban is without a doubt the x-factor and difference maker for this side. The 20-year-old Nigerian striker joined the Belgian side in the January transfer window from Norwegian side Stabæk and has hit the ground running since joining. In six appearances for Gent so far across all competitions, the striker has scored 4 goals and has looked like it will be rather soon that he is sold outside of Belgium for a large profit.
The data viz above shows the shot selection as well as xG of the Nigerian striker since his winter arrival from Norwegian football. As we can see, he is heavily overperforming his xG so far, with 4 goals on a total of 1.61 xG. He is also averaging a goal every four shots, a staggering statistic considering he has only been in Belgian football for about six weeks. When trying to pick out a key player for Gent’s run-in, it is undoubtedly Gift Orban.
6th place: Standard Liège – 45 points
Level on points with Gent are another huge Belgian side, with Standard Liège beginning to become a team to reckon with again under the tutelage of former Celtic and NYCFC boss Ronny Deila. After a mixed start to the campaign for the Norwegian manager in his first season in charge, the results picked up, with the club now all but confirmed to be in European or even Championship playoffs this season.
Something that could be considered a benefit compared to Gent is that they do not have the added distraction of playing European football, with them left to focus on getting back to Europe by qualifying through the league.
When taking a look at the Belgian giant’s current form, it is not too dissimilar to the one that Gent has had in recent weeks, with Standard having 2W-2D-1L in their last five matches in the Belgian league. Taking a look at the rest of the fixtures that Standard Liège have in the regular season, they have a slightly tougher run in than the side level on points with them.
Next up for Ronny Deila’s side is a tough test away at Club Brugge, who will have a new manager by that point in time. Then, they host Zulte before travelling away to Oostende, two sides currently sitting in the relegation zone. They then host league leaders KRC Genk and Charleroi before finishing off the regular season away to Leuven.
Key player: Philip Zinckernagel
Since arriving in the summer on a season-long loan for Greek powerhouse Olympiacos, Danish attacker Philip Zinckernagel has been undroppable since finding his feet in the Belgian top flight. Through 19 appearances for Standard so far this season, the 28-year-old has 7 goals and 2 assists, with that making him one of the leading chance creators for the Belgian side. Operating on one of the flanks in either Deila’s 4-2-3-1 formation, or as one of the two strikers in a 3-5-2, the Dane has made life difficult for opposing defences this season.
The data viz above shows the penetrating carries into the penalty box from the Danish attacker so far this season, with it highlighting just how impactful he is in these dangerous attacking areas for Standard Liège. Zinckernagel’s ability to drive into the penalty box with the ball at his feet causes havoc for opposition defenders, as well as allows him to be a high-volume chance creator for Standard Liège.
He will definitely be a key player for the Belgian powerhouse if they are to keep their place in the European playoffs, as well as play a huge role if they are to push on to make it into the top four and the Championship playoffs.
7th place: KVC Westerlo – 42 points
There were many who expected Westerlo to have a tough season in their first campaign back in the top flight of Belgian football for a few years. Instead, the opposite has been true. Jonas de Roeck has done a fantastic job with the Belgian side after leading them to promotion by winning the second division last campaign.
While they have not had quite the spectacular first season back in the top flight like Union Saint-Gilloise did last season, they are still in a comfortable position, one that will likely finish with them being in the European playoff places come the end of the regular season.
Westerlo have been in good form in their last five matches, with a record of 2W-2D-1L in those matches. A couple of those results have been really good as well, with them beating USG and drawing against Gent in two of those five matches.
Jonas de Roeck’s side have a bit of an interesting run-in, with their next two matches being against sides near the bottom of the table, with a home match against Kortrijk and then away to Oostende. They then host Charleroi before having two tough matches, playing Anderlecht away in Brussels and Club Brugge at home. They then finish the season off with a favourable tie against bottom side Seraing.
Key player: Maxim de Cuyper
Outside of the knowledge of Belgian football, it might seem like an interesting choice to include a left-back as the key player for a side pushing for potential European qualification, but Maxim de Cuyper is not your ordinary left-back. The 22-year-old Belgian has been a star for Westerlo through this campaign, with the defender having 8 goals and 6 assists through 28 games so far this season. His undeniable talent has also been spotted by new Belgian national team manager Domenico Tedesco, with the German-Italian likely including him in his first Belgian squad for the upcoming UEFA Euro 2024 qualifying matches.
What makes the young Belgian such a key player for Jonas de Roeck’s side is without a doubt his attacking impetus from a defensive position, with the 22-year-old always looking to get forward and be involved in the attacking phase of play.
The data viz above shows the ball progression statistics from de Cuyper so far this season, with the majority of his progressive runs and successful dribbles occurring inside the attacking half, and more specifically, inside the attacking third. A lot of Westerlo’s attacking movements this season have come down his side, with the young left-back looking to constantly make both underlapping and overlapping runs down the left flank.
Maxim de Cuyper has been a huge architect to Westerlo’s success so far this campaign, and he will need to continue it to keep the newly promoted side in the playoff places come six weeks from now.
8th place: Cercle Brugge – 40 points
Currently occupying the final European playoff spot are Cercle Brugge, with the side being transformed since about October. After the first almost two months of the season, the Belgian side were bottom of the league when Dominik Thalhammer was sacked, and his assistant Miron Muslić was put in permanent charge. Since the Austrian was appointed, the side have done a complete 180, with them racking off positive result after positive result, putting them where they are now, in serious contention for a European playoff position.
Cercle Brugge are unbeaten in their last five matches, with Muslić’s side having 1W-4D-0L in those matches. However, looking ahead to their last six matches shows a tough stretch where they will need to prove that they belong in these European playoff places come the end of the regular season.
Next up for the Bruges side is Anderlecht away, before returning home for a matchup with top-of-the-table Genk. They then host Kortrijk before a tough test away at Royal Antwerp, with former Barcelona and Bayern Munich player Mark van Bommel’s side in very good form. Miron Muslić’s side then finish with potential European playoff challenger Sint-Truiden at home before playing away to Zulte in their last match. While they currently sit in that final playoff spot, there are no guarantees they will still be there come April 23rd.
Key player: Ayase Ueda
It is hard to pick out one player that could be key for Cercle Brugge in their run-in, as all the players in the squad play such an important role in implementing Miron Muslić’s tactics to perfection, but if one had to be selected, it would be Japanese international striker Ayase Ueda. The Japan international has 13 goals this season and has formed a very good partnership with fellow forward Kevin Denkey.
The data viz above shows the xG map, as well as shot placements from the Japan international so far this season. While he is overperforming xG slightly, Ueda has taken the majority of his shots from really good areas in and around the penalty spot, with the forward averaging 0.15 xG per shot. If Ueda can keep the goals flowing for the last six matches of the regular season, it would be very likely Cercle Brugge are still in the European playoff places come the end of the Belgian regular season.
9th place: Charleroi – 38 points
Since Felice Mazzú was re-appointed as Charleroi manager in December of last year after the dismissal of Edward Still, the fortunes of the club have turned positive. Mazzú is widely regarded as one of the most successful managers in Charleroi’s history after his first spell at the club, and he has gotten them all to sing off the same hymn sheet in recent matches. In fact, Charleroi are unbeaten in their last five matches, with 3W-2D-0L. Mazzú will hope that this form continues for the final six matches, as it gets pretty tough in the final two weeks.
In their next two, they host Leuven and then travel to Antwerp, with a win against Leuven on Friday putting them into the European playoff places at least temporarily. They then go on the road to play another European playoff challenger in Westerlo before going home to take on Zulte. The real test of their credentials will be in the final two matches when they travel to take on Standard Liège before hosting league leaders Genk on the final matchday of the regular season.
Key player: Hervé Koffi
For Charleroi, the player that will likely be key for them is Burkina Faso international Hervé Koffi. The 26-year-old goalkeeper will have to be on his top form if Charleroi are to make it into the European playoff positions, as the club are the second lowest scorers of all the teams competing for one of these four spots, with only 35 goals scored all season.
The data viz above shows the shots that the Burkina Faso international has faced this season, with him in total preventing 1.7 goals against this season. Koffi has proven recently to be one of the better goalkeepers in the Belgian Pro League, and he will need to continue to put in huge performances for Charleroi if Felice Mazzú’s side are to find their way in the European playoffs come the end of the regular season.
10th place: RSC Anderlecht – 36 points
Currently sitting in 10th place in the league are Belgian record champions Anderlecht, which is a position that they have rarely seen themselves in the past. Since the departure of former Manchester City manager Vincent Kompany to Burnley in the summer, Anderlecht were in somewhat of a downward spiral before the club opted to sack Felice Mazzú after only a few months in charge. They looked to England for their next manager, with the club appointing Thomas Frank’s assistant manager at Brentford, Brian Riemer.
The Dane has overseen an uptick in results since his appointment in December, with the club currently four points outside of the European playoff places, as well as having a rather entertaining round-of-16 tie in the Europa Conference League against Spanish side Villarreal. In regards to recent form, the Belgian giants have 2W-2D-1L in their last five in the league. They also, for the most part, have a favourable run-in of fixtures, with their final six matches in the league being a home match against Cercle Brugge, followed by two straight-away matches against Leuven and Eupen. They then return home to Lotto Park to Westerlo and Mechelen on the last day of the regular season. However, sandwiched between those two matches are a trip to league leaders Genk on the second to last matchday.
All in all, Anderlecht are on the outside looking in, with potentially their only chance of European football for next season coming from winning the Europa Conference League, which looks extremely unlikely.
Key player: Islam Slimani
The veteran Algerian striker joined the Belgian side in January of this year on a free transfer from French Ligue 1 side Stade Brestois, with the 34-year-old signing a contract until the end of the season. He was tasked with trying to instantly be the one to score the goals for Anderlecht, after the loans of both Fabio Silva from Wolves and Sebastiano Esposito from Inter were terminated early. So far, the Algerian striker has been able to deliver, with 3 goals in his 5 appearances in the Belgian Pro League so far in the second half of the season.
The heat map above shows the type of areas that Slimani is finding himself in for Anderlecht, and as the graphic shows, he has been involved in all areas of the pitch for Brian Riemer’s side.
Alongside fellow new signing Anders Dreyer from FC Midtjylland, they have both had a large impact since signing for the club at the beginning of the year. Slimani’s ability to hold the ball up and let runners get beyond him has been crucial to Anderlecht being able to create more chances recently, as well as the ability for the 34-year-old Algerian to drop between the lines and receive the ball in deeper positions.
If Islam Slimani can continue to rediscover the form that got him his big-money move to the Premier League a few seasons back, Anderlecht may have a legitimate shot to get into the European playoffs, or potentially even make it to a European final.
11th place: Oud-Heverlee Leuven – 36 points
11th place is not the position Leuven fans expected their side to be in after the hot start to the season that they had. Leuven were in and around the top of the table for an extended period of time at the beginning of the season, before Marc Brys’s side came crashing back down the earth. Their long wait to get another win finally ended last weekend after they beat Zulte 4-2, giving them some much-needed hope that they could still be in with an outside shot of making it into the European playoffs come the end of the season.
Leuven only have one win in their last five matches, with 1W-2D-2L in these matches. They also do not have that much of a schedule left that people would consider them favourites in, with their last six matches being against Charleroi, Anderlecht, Genk, Mechelen, and Oostende before finishing off their season at home against Ronny Deila’s Standard Liége. This is a rather tough run-in of fixtures, especially with the poor form they are already in at the moment.
Last week’s win could do the world of good for Marc Brys and his side if they want to get back on track, but it is looking highly unlikely they will be able to get into the European playoffs this campaign, a disappointment considering the start that they had to the season.
Key player: Mario González
It is hard to look past Mario González as the player who could potentially make the difference for Leuven come crunch time, with the Spanish striker having 13 goals and 1 assist in 19 matches for the Belgian side this season. He has had a bit of a drop-off since his very good start to the season, so Marc Brys will need him to get back to full fitness in time for these crucial upcoming matches.
The heat map above shows the involvement that Mario González has had for Leuven so far this season, with the Spanish striker being heavily involved in the attacking third of the pitch for the Belgian side throughout this season. Though he is currently out injured with a bruised foot, Marc Brys will need to have the Spaniard at his best in order to have any chance of getting into the European playoff places.
12th place: Sint-Truiden – 36 points
The last team that this analysis piece will cover is Sint-Truiden, with the club currently sitting in 12th place in the Belgian Pro League, but still in with a shot at getting into the European playoff places. Though they are the most unlikely of the clubs to get into the playoffs, their recent draw against league leaders Genk must give them some hope and confidence when they very much need it.
With that being said though, they do have to deal with the fact that current manager Bernd Hollerbach has already announced that he will leave the club at the end of the season when his contract expires. Also, before the draw against Genk last weekend, Sint-Truiden had not been in the greatest form, with their last five matches resulting in 1W-1D-3L. Like the rest of the sides covered in this piece, Sint-Truiden have somewhat of a mixed last six fixtures in whether they could be considered favourites or not. They play Mechelen and Seraing before a tough test against Union Saint-Gilloise in their next three. They then play Oostende and Cercle Brugge before finishing with a tough match against Royal Antwerp at home.
Key player: Gianni Bruno
Sticking with the trend of forwards on the key player for each side’s chances to make the European playoffs, Gianni Bruno makes the list for Sint-Truiden. The 31-year-old Belgian has had a great season in front of goal for the Canaries, with his 14 goals and 1 assist top for the club.
However, Bruno does a lot of work off the ball, dropping into spaces and being able to receive the ball anywhere in the attacking half, which shows that he is able to operate as more than just a pure #9.
The data viz graphic above shows Gianni Bruno’s touch map, which shows just how much he moves around in the attacking half of the pitch to attempt to get on the ball. This is able to help illustrate the versatility he offers Hollerbach in this Sint-Truiden side and shows that he is able to do more than just sit in the penalty box waiting to latch onto any ball that comes his way.
If Sint-Truiden want any chance of European football, they need to rely on the ability of Gianni Bruno to help carry them there.
Conclusion
While this piece may not have been a true tactical analysis or scout report, it was able to show the fight that is currently going on in Belgium to finish in the European playoff positions. Normally, the title playoff race in Belgium is one to watch, but this time around, the fight for Europe seems to be the main event.
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