Words may be superfluous at this very moment for a name like Rafael Benítez, but it is possible that his recent experiences have eliminated from the popular retina what the 62-year-old Spaniard means in the world of football. His career has been vast, important and mythical; full of trophies, long projects, tactical variety and top players that he was able to coach within what was and has been his idea as a manager.
Among so many clubs managed, we can say that Valencia and Liverpool have been two of the highlights. With those respective clubs, he coached more than 500 games, winning the league twice with the Spanish team, one UEFA Europa League and the fantastic UEFA Champions League with Liverpool, which seemed to have been written in the stars. Much is due to what he, as a coach, built — understanding the context of what football was at that time.
Recently, we can say that his stay in Naples is placed among his top experiences, while he had one to forget at Real Madrid full of discouraged players with little patience for his project. Beyond this, his arrival at Newcastle and four seasons in command of the English team between 2015-2019 is one that should be greatly remembered as one of his best.
After his time at Everton, many may have thought that Rafa would not return to work, but everything indicates that he will soon, as he himself said he has received up to 15 offers. That is why today, we will treat this as the door to the path of this article, in which we ask ourselves: What could be the next team for Rafa Benítez? We will use data analysis to find the club that could be the best fit for the Spaniard, with help of the statistics.
Selected countries
To carry out this analysis we have decided to take three countries. Among those selected we will have Spain. After almost nine years, Benítez has not returned to coach in his native country. In the past, he has commented that it is very difficult due to the rivalry with the clubs he has managed, but taking into account that he joined Everton last season, that can take a turn.
We will be taking into account teams that have a more reactive idea of the game, low possession and that are underperforming in terms of scoring goals — something that Benítez has shown to improve in many teams, specifically in that Newcastle side.
England, because it is the country that he knows best. He lives there, he has led four teams over the years in different contexts, doing very well with two of them. However, as he has managed teams like Newcastle, Everton, Chelsea and Liverpool, we’re going to take a look at a deep challenge for Rafa to take next.
Finally, we believe that a return to Italy would also be positive for him. After his time in Naples, there may be clubs interested in adding a coach with so much experience in football. It is not a country in which he has done as well as in Spain or England, so that can be part of a challenge for him.
England
Taking into account what is happening at the moment in the Premier League, in which many coaches are settled with long-term projects or in the case of others, have recently established themselves in their new clubs, there are a couple of teams the Spaniard fits well.
It must be taken into account as well that this competition would be one of the few that could offer him the money he has obtained in recent years. Italy or Spain may not bear as attractive offers, but this is all hypothetical.
Leicester City
Things are not going well for Brendan Rodgers. The solid project that once was and nearly touched a return to the Champions League has vanished. He is currently fighting not to be relegated with a squad that’s certainly capable of more than that. Things couldn’t be much worse for the 2015-16 season champions.
Despite the fact that achieving the league title does not seem realistic in the coming years, Benítez could have a really good project on his hands, with the possibility of large investment after his arrival and a team that already features players of high quality, especially if he manages to retain James Maddison as the lynchpin of the team to be built around.
Leicester City this season have been a very weak team. They have needed goals and to be much more defensively solid. The structure has been messed up and an experienced guy like Benítez could fix it. Within what has been a passive block that registered 12.32 in PPDA, it has not offered the necessary solidity.
The data shows that ‘Foxes’ have conceded a 39.75 xGA and 47 actual goals so far this season at the time of writing. This means that they have shipped more goals than they should have on the pitch. The first indication is that of an impoverished team at the back, which was one of their highest points each prior season, precisely because of how coordinated their central area was.
By now, Leicester have scored 37 goals from almost 30 xG. This means that they have overperformed their xG, but it also means that it is one of the lowest xG of the league. They create few high-probability goal situations and fall on the individualities of players. Something that can be demonstrated by Harvey Barnes and James Maddison being responsible for 17 goals between them in the competition — 45% of those scored by their team.
It is clear that many things will have to be improved within the squad if Benítez joins the team, but players like James Maddison, Kieran Dewsbury-Hall, Youri Tielemans or Harvey Barnes must be retained if they want to put together a new project that seeks to compete for European positions. Reinforcements with a more defensive profile in the middle and in the back-four would be necessary, as well as a more Benítez-esque striker.
Leeds United
Knowing that Javi Gracia has a ‘flexible’ contract as the media pointed out when he was signed, it seems that Leeds United do not have a coach who will oversee a long-term project. The fanbase is not so happy with the appointment and the things that have been happening there lately.
One of the most aggressive and fastest teams in the league, but also weak and with goalscoring problems — Rafa Benítez can take this as a great challenge to correct. During his time in the Premier League after promotion with Marcelo Bielsa, Leeds have continued to be a team that needs to adapt to something more reactive in certain situations.
Leeds United have had a fairly straightforward style over the years, plus an extremely intense style of defending under both Bielsa and Jesse Marsch, but that may change with Gracia in charge. It would be more than a good idea to seek to change certain things in the style that allow the team to live calmly in the Premier League as Newcastle once did under the Spanish coach.
However, their scoring quota has dropped, having been one of the top 10 in the last two years. Now, they are among the five teams that generate and score the least, with 35 goals within almost 35 xG. Those are not good numbers considering the moment the other teams are experiencing in the campaign.
Players like Tyler Adams, Marc Roca and Weston McKennie have the skills and defensive intensity that playing within a Benítez system needs, with a lot of midfielders to nullify central zones. Wingers like Wilfried Gnonto or Jack Harrison who break spaces on the outside are even more suitable for creating chances.
With a lot to build but also areas to invest in, a return to the Premier League seems more likely in this pair of contexts that contain positive and negative things which Benítez can take advantage of for a new adventure in England.
Italy
His past with Napoli and Inter dictate that in teams like Milan, Juventus, or even Rome he could not coach while following his motto of not playing in rival teams. However, the data has shown us a more than interesting context in which Rafael Benítez could lead his next team and return to Italy after more than 9 years.
In the data viz below, we find the Serie A teams, comparing their Expected Goals and Goals Scored, and a name that stands out greatly is that of Fiorentina — the only team that we see as being capable of fitting with the ideas, salary — to a certain point — and historical environment for the Spanish coach.
At the moment of writing this, Fiorentina have been creating lots of chances, with a high xG of more than 45. However, they have scored just 32 goals. In comparison to the number of chances they’ve created, it has been one of the poorest.
Vincenzo Italiano has not done a bad job with Fiorentina, despite the fact that it has been an irregular year in the search for more possession football in his team, which has a more than interesting squad. The defensive statistics at the moment are extremely poor, and knowing how little they have scored, competing has become very difficult, especially observing the level of the current Napoli.
That’s why Rafa Benítez appears as a possible coach who fits Serie A and Fiorentina. After winning the Italian Cup and Super Cup with Napoli, a possible return with “Viola” could excite many. Players like Sofyane Amrabat, Giacomo Bonaventura, Igor or Luka Jović are more than interesting names to create a project for Benítez.
If Italiano’s departure becomes a reality at the end of the season, it would open the door for an interesting and hypothetical challenge for the Spaniard, with a team that seeks to compete seriously in one of the fastest-growing leagues in the world. With the recent signing of Dodô — for more than 14 million euros — it is likely that an investment in the next market of good money will be made.
Spain
They say ‘there is no place like home’ and this can be taken very literally with the team that we believe can fit Rafa Benítez. His career took the highest and greatest turn when in 2001, he decided to join the ranks of Valencia. The club is experiencing one of the worst moments in its history; they are battling relegation and an economic crisis did not allow them to retain great players and coaches or invest in the squad year after year.
If we go to the statistical issue, it is fateful what the team coached in a half-season by Gennaro Gattuso is experiencing right now. Defensively, the 31 goals conceded in 35 xGA have not meant the worst numbers in this phase for them. However, this is something that has been happening regularly in recent years.
The worst of the numbers comes when we see the offensive side of things. They have registered 35.85 xG so far, scoring 28 goals — an abysmal difference that is the reason why they are kept in such low positions in the table.
The players live in an extremely low state of mind, and passivity has become something almost constant in the club’s matches. Not because of the desire shown by players, because many inside feel the club to the fullest as their captain José Gauá, but with the results and the atmosphere that exists. Normally teams in this context look to reverse this with appointments of people close to home. And Rafa is one of them.
In fact, after Gattuso’s departure, Voro, an old acquaintance at the club, took over for 15 days, something that has already happened several times in recent years. Now, Rúben Baraja is currently struggling to keep them up in the top flight.
A man of Rafa’s experience and name at Valencia would give a lot to contribute to possible and long-awaited growth for their fans. Players like José Gayá, Samuel Lino, Hugo Guillamón or Carlos Soler are not names that go unnoticed in La Liga, who could also fit very well within Rafa’s ideas.
The tactical order and the particular offensive approach would be something that Valencia could take advantage of, be it in this same campaign or in the next, whatever happens. He has already shown that he is capable of leading in lower divisions if his job requires him to.
Conclusion
Despite the fact that a man of his experience and quality of work has commented that he has more than 15 offers, which is normal, we took four that we see as capable of offering an environment more fitting for him, where he has shown that he can live calmly and comfortably — in addition to thinking about what he’s worth and who could pay or offer something interesting for him.
However, the data search helped us to know what kind of teams are currently making mistakes that Rafa could lift and can fit. If the world wants to surprise us with his next destination, it will go ahead. In the end, what we write does not mean that it will necessarily happen, it only looks to entertain the reader and make them question just like the writer in this article, searching football teams for one of the biggest legends in the managerial world.
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