Jamie Vardy, Charlie Austin and Yannick Bolasie. Attacking players that have successfully made the jump from National League to the Premier League. In part one, I looked at defensive players that could make the jump into the EFL and potentially the Premier League in the future.
In this second part, I will analyse central midfielders, wingers, attacking midfielders and strikers who can make this jump and in the conclusion, I will build a final eleven based on my data analysis. I hope that after this data analysis, some players analysed may be signed by clubs in higher tiers such as in the EFL or Premier League. We have already seen David Tutonda, Ricardo Santos and Dan Sweeney join EFL clubs in my previous analysis. Again, each player will have had to have played 25% of their teams’ minutes to be included in the database.
Methodology
The database available contains national league players and some in leagues lower than the national league, who may be particularly interesting. Players will be chosen based on the data visualisation as well as z-score ranks so no players are missed from the data visualisation.
It is worth noting that the data is taken from the 2019/20 season, the statistics represent the most recent performances of the players. Players from Barrow and Harrogate Town were not included as only players in the National League and below are included, though the database will show some players that have moved to EFL clubs, since writing this. Also, note that some players were deployed in several positions last season, they will be in the position chapter where they played the most.
Central midfielders
There are several different roles central midfielders can play, here I will try to provide an overall analysis on the midfielders so that the analysis is fair on all types of the central midfielders.
Mark Ricketts has been brilliant in a ball-winning midfield role having made 12.3 defensive actions per 90, he is highly active in making such a high defensive contribution.
Torquay United midfielder Armani Little and Hartlepool United’s Gavan Holohan contributed well in attacking transitions last season as they made 4.02 and 4.48 attacking actions per 90. Holohan scored eight goals and made three assists last season while Little is only aged 23 and has high potential.
Michael Doyle passed 81.81% of his 55.52 passes per 90 and made an impressive 9.29 successful progressive passes per 90 showing his braveness in ball possession.
The most accurate passers were Jason Kennedy and Cav Miley. Kennedy has signed for Spennymoor Town on loan this season but Miley will compete in the National League again, he also performs well in the ball travelling metrics having made 1.75 progressive runs per 90, key to helping sides progress from zonal thirds to create space for others further up the pitch.
Little, Lawson D’Ath and Jim O’Brien all attempted a relatively high number of dribbles per 90 while performing having strong success rates in the database. D’Ath had a success rate of 58.82% and is performing at his peak at 27 years of age.
The statistics also highlighted John Rooney; he has joined Stockport County from Barrow. He scored 17 goals last season and will be key to Stockport’s promotion push.
I will now look at the central midfielders who contributed best defensively.
Ricketts shows his strength in defensive events having performed well on all three metrics shown above, particularly defensive duels. Free-agent Akil Wright looks a shrewd signing at only 24 years of age as he won 67.50% of his 6.36 defensive duels per 90 and made 7.59 PAdj interceptions per 90. Sutton United’s Kenny Davis also impresses in defensive duels.
Dean Rance has just signed for Dagenham & Redbridge and will be a strong aerial presence for the side, having won 62.10% of his 7.14 aerial duels per 90. New teammate, Matthew Robinson and Ebbsfleet United’s Josh Payne also perform well.
Ex-Arsenal midfielder Craig Eastmond excels in interceptions and his previous EFL experience is an advantage to signing him.
Central midfielder:
Cav Miley: Takes this position due to his strength in attacking and defensive contributions, his passing and dribbling ability is most impressive and performs average in defending.
Substitute:
Mark Ricketts: Excels in defensive tasks, particularly in his duels and is experienced, aged 35, he may be nearing the end of his career but would still be a strong short-run defensive-minded midfield acquisition.
Ones to watch:
Armani Little, Gavan Holohan, Mitch Rose and Akil Wright.
Attacking midfielders
Attacking midfielders are responsible for final third transitions and are expected to contribute to the team’s goals in terms of goals and assists. They could be demanded to defend in an aggressive press or low defensive block, however, here I will focus only on their attacking contribution.
Liam Mandeville’s creativity in possession is impressive, he completed 5.41 deep completions per 90, a pass which progresses the team 10 metres if passed in the final third. Impressively, he also made 1.91 passes to the penalty area per 90.
Wesley Fonguck is aged 23 and is strong in retaining possession of the ball in the final third having had a final third pass accuracy of 80.49%. In all other transition passes he had a high accuracy and likes to play passes towards the penalty area, he produced 2.12 successful passes to the penalty area per 90.
Elliot Newby is also strong in retaining ball possession when playing passes to the final third, he outperforms twin Alex Newby, even though A. Newby has joined League One Rochdale.
Solihull Moor midfielder Jamie Osborne has brilliant output stats having scored seven goals and made five assists in 25 matches last season. He scored the most goals in the attacking midfield database and in the dribbling test, he had a success rate of 57.97% in his 6.51 dribbles per 90.
Elliott Osborne has just joined Stevenage, he scored nine goals and assisted six times last season. Ethan Chislett is another player on the move, having joined AFC Wimbledon, he scored nine goals last season, impressive given he is only aged 20.
Cameron King and Nick Houghton made the most penetrative runs with the ball per 90, Houghton appears better than the National League North as he was relegated with AFC Flyde last season.
Attacking midfielder:
Wesley Fonguck: His accurate creative and final third passes aided him in making four assists and was highly successful in his dribbles. His all-round attacking threat won him his place, he is also only 23.
Substitute:
Liam Mandeville: Another 23-year old, his ability to play through and progressive passes is key for sides that are trying to break defensively structured sides or low blocks.
Ones to watch:
Elliot Newby, Jamie Osborne, Jai Reason and Cameron King.
Wingers
Wingers are similar to attacking midfielders, however, here the metrics used will cover the traditional wide winger role. It will also try to cover the inside forward role, due to this, their secondary (defensive tasks) won’t be analysed.
Thomas Walker is impressive in shooting situations. He had a conversion rate of 20% and scored nine goals last season, Harrogate Town have just signed him as they hope his shooting is advantageous in League Two.
Craig Tanner and Ricky Modeste are the best of the rest, Tanner scored 0.33 goals per 90, though he did only play 12 matches last season. Modeste had a goal conversion rate of 20% helping him to score six goals.
Assist king Luke Coulson produced 11 assists for Bromley last season, his creativity in passing could see him excel in the later passing tests.
Ex-Notts County left-winger Regan Booty successfully made a strong number of brave passes, he attempted 0.99 through passes per 90 and 3.44 passes to the penalty area per 90, this is likely to improve as he is only aged 22.
Another strong performer is Terry Hawkbridge, however, he has just signed or National League North side Boston United, he successfully made two passes to the penalty area per 90, influential to allow previous side, Solihull Moors, to penetrate the opposition penalty area.
This part looks at the more traditional winger, Barnet youngster Ephron Mason-Clark is one of the best crossers and dribblers in the winger database. He impressively made 4.05 successful dribbles per 90 and is a great asset as he can play in any position along the forward line.
Brazilian Alefe Santos successfully completed 66.18% of his 4.37 dribbles per 90 last season, in offensive duels he retained possession 47.85% of the 10.47 times he was challenged per 90.
Left-winger:
Luke Coulson: Has the versatility to play on both wings. His creative final third passing created 11 goals and he is also one of the best wingers at retaining possession when challenged.
Right-winger:
Ephron Mason-Clark: The 21-year old has a different skillset to Coulson as he specialises in dribbling and crossing while making 1.29 successful passes to the penalty area per 90 and his 11.49% goal conversion rate helped him score four goals last season.
Substitute:
Regan Booty (LW): A creative player similar to Coulson, Booty is now a free-agent and looks great value for money having played well for Notts County in the first part of the season. He also showed his versatility, playing in a central midfield role.
Ones to watch:
Ricky Modeste(RW) and Craig Tanner(RW).
Strikers
Finally, we will look at the players who could be ‘the next Jamie Vardy’. Strikers can be deployed in numerous roles in their sides; therefore, I will look at their shooting, their link-up play and their defensive actions.
Yeovil Town’s Rhys Murphy is a clinical finisher having scored 17 goals last season, only two were penalties, his finishing ability is highlighted by his 22.08% goal conversion rate and an xG-G value of -3.92, as he scored more goals than expected. Kristian Dennis also performs well, however, has now left to Scottish Premier League side, St Mirren.
Other strong goalscorers include Jake Hyde, Kabongo Tshimanga and Jamie Reid. Most impressive is Tshimanga who scored 17 non-penalty goals as Boreham Wood challenged for promotion. Hyde’s 0.59 expected goals per 90 shows his intelligence in positioning to occupy goalscoring positions.
Finally, Paul McCallum appears one of the best finishers having had a goal conversion rate of 24.07%, he just joined Dagenham & Redbridge, they appear a real promotion threat this season.
The next test will look at players whose strengths lie in link-up play.
Jack Redshaw was a free agent snapped up by York City, he has the best final third passing accuracy out of the strikers, this is key to help his sides’ build-up play before a shot, continue. It is also worth noting Ángelo Balanta, he made 2.52 successful final third passes per 90.
Chesterfield’s Tom Denton fits the target man mould well as he won 23.49% of his 55.76 aerial duels per 90, while also making 1.30 successful final third passes per 90. Nathan Blissett and Tyrone Barnett were also a nuisance in the air last season, eight of Barnett’s 11 goals were headers.
In terms of assists per 90, Tomi Adeloye and Dennis do well, though, in terms of overall assists, Reid is the highest scoring at six assists.
The last part will look at the more athletic type players, those who can travel with the ball and win the ball back.
Gime Touré has signed for Carlisle United from Hartlepool United, he impressively attempted 9.36 dribbles per 90 with a success rate of 54.01% as he helped his side transition. This type of ability is key for a counter-attack as he can push the team higher up the field on his own, when he is isolated, he made 2.61 progressive runs per 90. Morecambe’s new signing Liam McAlinden also looks strong in this test.
Jordan Williams and Ruairi Keating made the most successful defensive actions per 90, an indication of their ability to play as a defensive forward and press. Williams has joined Stockport County and clubs should keep a close eye on him as he was also involved in 6.23 defensive duels per 90, evidence of his positioning to make defensive contributions.
Strikers:
Kabongo Tshimanga: The two strikers were picked as their output was impressive, Tshimanga scored 33% of Boreham Wood’s total goals last season and he also showed relatively strong final third pass accuracy and goal conversion.
Rhys Murphy: One of the best finishers from the database, he is highly experienced and also playing at the peak of his career.
Substitute:
Kyle Wootton: Strong finishing ability and is only aged 23, he should be watched closely as he spearheads Notts County’s push for promotion.
Ones to watch:
Jake Hyde, Paul McCallum, Tom Denton and Courtney Duffus.
Conclusion
From this data analysis, I have created the best eleven. Please note that choices were somewhat subjective, though, the visuals and data were a heavy influence on these choices. for instance, a club may be more interested in target man players, Tom Denton would be a strong pick for this position. I like strikers that have strong finishing ability and output as they are one of the key contributors to goals.
Players such as Jamie Reid and Thomas Walker have joined EFL clubs and it would come at no surprise if players in the best eleven or substitutes bench also made the jump. Others not in the below visual could also be on the move as players are bought, taking into account the buying club’s tactics. A second side is created in the substitutes bench for alternative players to the best eleven. As this article was finished Ross McCormack signed for Aldershot Town, showing the increase in quality in non-league.
I thoroughly enjoyed making this part one and part two series, some players had made the jump while writing the articles, which did make it difficult to pick the best eleven, however, it meant that others would be able to be picked. I hope that at least one of these players will make the jump within the next year as there is some great talent in non-league.
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