For much of the 21st century, CD Nacional have been in the Primeira Liga, Portugal’s top flight. However, they have spent each of the last three seasons, including the current one, in Liga Portugal 2, where they’ve spent five of their last seven seasons overall.
Last season was particularly bad for the team as it finished 14th in the standings with a mere 39 points from 34 matches, only four clear of the relegation zone and a whopping 24 points adrift of the final promotion spot. A change was needed, and for the second consecutive season, Nacional sacked their manager just a year after his appointment.
The club’s hierarchy handed the first team to 35-year-old Tiago Margarido, giving him only a one-year contract. They did plenty of transfer business, largely in the free-agent market, signing eight players and loaning in three more, while eight players departed the club as well.
What has happened since has been simply remarkable. Margarido’s men currently sit third in Liga Portugal 2 with 37 points (already three more than the whole of last season) from 19 matches, five behind leaders Santa Clara. They are the league’s most productive team with 36 goals scored, averaging almost two per game, and boast a formidable home record (seven wins and two draws in nine matches).
Margarido has changed the fortunes of this side overnight and this tactical analysis report will performing analysis on their stats, best performing players, and attacking and defensive tactics.
Background
Margarido, despite being only 35 and not having played professional football, boasts plenty of experience in European football as he has been involved with clubs since his late 20s.
In 2017, he joined current fourth-tier Portuguese side Oliveira do Douro as their assistant manager and spent one season there before undertaking the same role at Liga Portugal 2 side Leiria. Midway through the 2018/19 campaign, he joined Canelas 2010, who are now in the third tier, as their assistant manager and became their manager prior to the 2019/20 season.
Margarido spent three seasons with Canelas before moving to Varzim in the third tier. His stint with Varzim was brief as he was only in charge from July 2022 to February 2023, during which they played 23 matches across competitions and 13 while losing six. At the time of his departure, the club were fourth in the table, occupying the final promotion playoff spot. They ended the season in fifth place.
In July last year, Margarido was appointed as Nacional’s manager, and so far, he has justified the faith placed in him.
The stats behind Nacional’s offensive explosion this season
What makes Nacional’s surge this season interesting is in the fact that many of their underlying statistics aren’t too different from last season.
For instance, they are averaging only marginally more shots (13.86 with 35.00% on target vs 12.65 with 33.50% in 2022/23), aerial duels (40.79 vs 38.47), forward passes (124.89 at 71.40% accuracy vs 124.88 at 70.40% accuracy) and progressive passes (65.16 at 73.20% accuracy vs 63.94 at 72.20% accuracy) per game. They have also dropped in a few areas, such as passes (342.26 vs 350.47) and counterattacks (1.79 vs 1.82) per game. However, the areas in which they have shown improvement have automatically improved their offensive ceiling.
The two metrics that directly influence results more than the others is the goals per game and xG per game, both of which have improved from last season. While Nacional underperformed their xG last season and are overperforming it this time around, their overall chance creation has been better, which should see them continue to win games even if they return to their expected production.
This can also be understood by looking at a comparison of their shotmaps from last season to this. The cluster of shots from outside the box is much lower on the right-sided image, with more shots from central areas inside the box as well.
This leads to another interesting stat, which is their touches in the penalty area. While their entries into the box have gone down from 24.15 in 2022/23 to 21.58 now, their touches in the area have improved from 15.47 to 17.58. This indicates that their positioning has improved, while the stats show that their accuracy in passes in the final third has also improved (from 62.30% last season to 65.50% this term).
The other key areas of improvement are in Nacional’s ability to not only get into dangerous areas, but also convert those possessions into shots from both positional moves as well as counter-attacks. Despite a marginal decrease in attempted crosses (from 18.26 to 16.05) per game, they have drastically improved their accuracy, resulting in better chances. Lastly, Margarido has also got them playing fewer long passes per game but has maintained their accuracy, providing them with an additional method to target defences.
Attacking style
A standout feature of Nacional under Margarido has been the variety they have offered with respect to their formation. This season, they have alternated between a 4-3-3, 4-2-3-1, 4-1-4-1 and 4-4-2 across different stages of the season, often adapting to the opponent. Despite the difference in shape, their build-up shares a few similarities.
Consider the following sequence from their most recent fixture, a 2-1 win over Torreense where Margarido opted for a 4-1-4-1 formation. While in possession, the holding midfielder drops back to assist the centre-backs with the build-up, while the full-backs operate out wide, often high up the pitch. The wingers, in turn, take up in-field positions, allowing them to get into areas in and around the box when needed.
In this case, the ball is played to the left centre-back, who has time to take the ball into the attacking half and spear a pass out wide to the open left-back. The rest of the players are largely concentrated around the middle and right side of the pitch, with the aim of finding pockets of space. The cross that eventually comes in is blocked out for a corner, but there are four players in or at the edge of the area waiting to pounce on an opportunity.
A second example to consider in this regard is from their 1-1 draw with Tondela, a game in which they played with a mix of a 4-4-2 and 4-1-3-2. In this case, the play begins from midfield with a pass played out to the left. The midfielder receives the ball back to find a forward who has dropped back into midfield. The latter is then able to switch the ball to the right, where the right-back leaves the ball for the winger to cross.
In this scenario, the full-backs don’t charge forward at the start and join the attack as it progresses. The two other midfielders occupy the opposition’s second line of defence, once again finding small pockets to work in before one of them charges forward to join the striker and opposing forward in the box. This particular move ends with the onrushing midfielder meeting the cross with his head, but the goalkeeper makes an easy save.
Nacional’s attacking patterns under Margarido can be understood even better by looking at some of their goals, which the next section will explore.
Goals and the players who are making a difference in attack
A key contributor to Nacional’s uptick in form has been their transfer business over the summer, particularly in attack, which they reinforced with two key signings.
The first of those was Venezuelan forward Jesus Ramirez, who arrived on loan from Mexican club Morelia. The 25-year-old is Nacional’s top-scorer in the league this season with nine strikes and has also added an assist for good measure. Ramirez has been an efficient scorer, getting 41.3% of his 2.37 shots per game on target, and is marginally overperforming his xG of 6.74.
He has averaged just 2.89 touches in the penalty box per game, once again demonstrating his efficiency, while his passing and offensive duel win rate aren’t his greatest attributes. However, what he does well is scoring goals, and he’s enjoying the most productive league season of his career so far in Margarido’s system.
Here’s one of his goals from this season, which was part of a hat-trick in a thrilling 3-2 win over Porto II. As the ball is played over the top to the left from midfield, Ramirez begins his run from outside the box to get into the area. The cross from the left is slightly behind him, but he decelerates and gets there with just enough time to take a touch, swivel and shoot into the far corner, leaving his marker and the goalkeeper helpless.
Ramirez’s movement also enables him to get into good positions, especially in counter-attacking or set-piece situations. He has already scored once from a corner, once from the second phase of a free-kick and on the counter, with the case below from a 2-0 win over Uniao de Leiria providing an example of the latter.
Here, Nacional break forward at pace thanks to an excellent throw from the goalkeeper to right-winger Gustavo Silva (more on him later), who holds the ball well on the right. Ramirez (marked in black) is behind the play, to begin with, but catches up and, at the opportune moment, runs off the back of his marker, who is caught ball-watching and gets into the perfect position for a simple tap-in. This play also shows just how good Margarido’s team is in transition.
While these two goals came off his stronger left foot, Ramirez has also scored with his right foot and head this term, making him a threat on multiple levels.
The second excellent performer in attack for Nacional this season is the aforementioned Gustavo Silva, also signed on loan from Brazilian team Comercial-SP. Silva’s stats are mind-boggling as he has six goals and a league-leading nine assists in the Liga Portugal 2 this season. The Brazilian, who is only 24, is by no means the finished product, as indicated by stats such as his passing accuracy (65.4%), particularly with respect to forward and progressive passes, and volume of possession losses (10.88) per game. He also gets only 38.4% of his shots on target (2.17 attempts per game).
However, he adds a different dimension to this Nacional team. Silva contributes to almost 20% of to the team’s touches in the penalty area (3.8 off 17.58) and completes nearly 60% of his dribble attempts, winning 1.52 fouls per game as well. He is also a reasonably accurate crosser (42.9% accuracy), using which he has gotten himself a few assists this season, and long passer (46.2% accuracy). As indicated by the assist to Ramirez, he has pace to burn.
Consider the sequence below from Nacional’s 2-1 opening-day defeat to Maritimo. Silva (marked in black) makes a pacy run forward to get to the ball before slowing his pace to skip past his marker. He then accelerates again to move into the open space and sends a cut-back to the edge of the box. The pass is perfectly weighted and is struck first-time into the back of the net by midfielder Jota.
Silva’s other standout attribute is ability to contribute goals. Despite playing on the right wing, all six of his goals have come via his right foot, which, while indicating his one-footedness, also shows his ability to strike the ball well across goal or powerfully at the near post.
Consider the play below leading up to one of his goals in a 5-0 thrashing of relegation battlers Belenenses. The first phase of play is a neat example of Nacional’s build-up as they move the ball from right to left after attracting pressure down the right. The centre-backs find each other despite being under pressure before firing out a pass to the left-back, who is higher up the pitch and begins his run as the pass comes in to collect it further forward in space.
The left-back is then able to sprint forward, with Nacional committing multiple players forward as well. He then floats a ball to the edge of the area, where it’s headed on by Vladan Danilovic towards Silva. The latter lets the ball drop across his body before firing a venomous first-time volley across the keeper and into the bottom corner.
Silva is undoubtedly one to look out for as he possesses a skillset that could help him thrive even in the top European leagues if he manages to smoothen some of his rough edges.
Both Ramirez and Silva present valid cases to be Nacional’s signing of the season, and it remains to be seen if the club opts to sign them on a permanent deal. They have undoubtedly improved the club’s attack alongside the experienced Witi, who is the longest-serving player in the current squad.
Witi has scored seven league goals this term, already making this his best-ever campaign for the club. In midfield, Danilovic, Luís Esteves, and Carlos Daniel have all chipped in, scoring eight times and providing seven assists between them. All three players struggled at times for Nacional last season and have looked much better this time around, contributing to Margarido’s free-flowing offence.
It’s also worth noting that Nacional’s additions in defence have bolstered their backline. Ulisses, who is on loan from Vasco da Gama, has helped them build play from the back with a 78.5% forward pass accuracy and 3.01 passes into the final third per game while also winning 57.1% of his duels.
His centre-back partner Paulo Vitor, who returned for a second successive loan spell after the 2022/23 season, has improved from last campaign, particularly with his long passing (56.6% accuracy on 6.58 attempts per game), a crucial part of Nacional’s offence under Margarido. He has also averaged 6.02 interceptions and a 66.7% defensive duel success rate, shoring up a defence which conceded 46 goals last season to a certain extent.
Conclusion
Tiago Margarido’s impact on Nacional has been evident not just in their improved results but also in the quality they have shown as they aim to get back among the big boys. While his defence has still conceded over a goal a game on average, it has shown vast improvement from last season, thanks in no measure to the addition of Ulisses and the improvement shown by Vitor.
However, it is in attack that Nacional have taken the biggest strides under Margarido, with their attacking statistics showing improvements and their moves and patterns showing greater pace and incision. Ramirez and Silva have taken this attack to another level alongside the relative veteran Witi, while their midfield has also contributed when needed.
Overall, this Nacional team has what it takes to get back to the top flight and will look to continue their excellent season. Should they return to the Primeira Liga, Margarido will certainly be a candidate to win Manager of the Season and a contract extension.
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