Overperforming clubs in football are those that achieve better results in terms of points than what would be expected based on their underlying statistics. The use of Expected Points (xPoints) has become increasingly popular among football analysts to evaluate team performances in a more objective way, taking into account the quality of the chances created and conceded.
In this data analysis, we will figure out which clubs overperform in the top five leagues this season. With similar statistics, we will discover clubs in the top five leagues that are underperforming so far this season in another analysis next week.
Methodology
One important metric to consider is xGoals, which measures the quality of a team’s chances based on factors such as the location of the shot, the type of pass leading to the shot, and the defensive pressure on the shooter. Similarly, xGoals against measures the quality of the opponent’s chances based on the same factors. By comparing the actual goals scored and conceded by a team with their xGoals and xGoals against, we can assess whether they are over or underperforming.
For example, a team that scores more goals than their xGoals would suggest are overperforming in attack, while a team that concedes fewer goals than their xGoals against would suggest are overperforming in defence. Similarly, a team that achieves more points than their xPoints would suggest are overperforming in terms of results.
When analysing overperforming clubs in football, it is important to consider other factors that could explain their success, such as their playing style, tactics, team cohesion, and individual player performances. A team that is consistently overperforming might be relying on luck rather than skill, and their underlying statistics might regress to the mean over time.
Overperforming clubs in football can be exciting to watch, but it is important to approach their success with a critical eye and consider the underlying factors that contribute to their results. The use of advanced statistical analysis such as xPoints, xGoals, and xGoals against can help to provide a more objective and nuanced understanding of team performances.
Premier League
In the English Premier League, there are always teams that exceed expectations and overperform relative to their underlying statistics. This season, two teams that have done just that are Arsenal and Manchester United.
Arsenal, who finished 5th in the Premier League last season, have improved dramatically under the guidance of manager Mikel Arteta. However, their current points total of 72 is higher than their xPoints of 58, indicating that they have been somewhat fortunate to accumulate as many points as they have. Similarly, their 70 goals scored is way higher than their xGoals of 55.88, suggesting that they may have been extremely clinical in front of goal.
Despite this, Arsenal’s underlying statistics are still impressive. They have conceded just 27 goals, which is in line with their xGoals against of 27.6, indicating that they have been defensively solid throughout the season. Additionally, their possession rate of 60.5% is the second-highest in the league, while their PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) of 8.51 is the lowest, indicating that they have been successful in pressing their opponents and regaining possession.
Manchester United, on the other hand, have had a more inconsistent season, but their current points total of 50 is higher than their xPoints of 36.3, indicating that they have also been somewhat fortunate in terms of results. Their 41 goals scored is also slightly higher than their xGoals of 38.45, although their 37 goals conceded is in line with their xGoals against of 43.25, suggesting that their defensive performances have been consistent with their underlying statistics.
Despite their overperformance, both Arsenal and Manchester United have still demonstrated their quality throughout the season. Arsenal’s possession-based style of play has been effective, while Manchester United have been strong defensively and have had some impressive attacking performances. However, if they want to continue to overperform and maintain their league positions, they will need to continue to improve and work on their weaknesses.
Bundesliga
In the German Bundesliga, Union Berlin is one team that has been overperforming relative to their underlying statistics this season. Currently sitting in 3rd place in the league, Union Berlin’s current points total of 51 is a lot higher than their xPoints of 34.8, indicating that they have been very lucky in terms of results.
However, Union Berlin’s statistics suggest that their overperformance is not entirely down to luck. They have scored 41 goals, which is higher than their xGoals of 32.08, indicating that they have been clinical in front of goal. Meanwhile, their 28 goals conceded is lower than their xGoals against of 34.07, suggesting that their defensive performances have been strong.
Union Berlin’s possession rate of 43.8% is the third-lowest in the league, but they have shown an ability to create chances through other means. They only have averaged 9.57 shots per game, but their 14.89 crosses per game is the third-highest in the league. Their 16.87 dribbles per 90 is the lowest, indicating that they are not successful in taking on their opponents and creating opportunities but focus on a strong team performance instead of individual quality. Finally, their average of 53.17 long passes per game is the fourth-highest in the league, suggesting that they are willing to play direct football when necessary.
Union Berlin’s style of play is characterised by their physicality and intensity. Their average age of 29.5 is the second-highest in the league, indicating that they rely on experienced players who are able to compete physically. They have a low challenge intensity of 5.30, and their PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) of 14.26 is the third-highest in the league, indicating that they are not focusing to press their opponents and win the ball back quickly but fall back into a low block.
Overall, Union Berlin’s overperformance this season can be attributed to a combination of factors, including clinical finishing, strong defensive performances, and a physical and intense style of play. While their possession-based statistics may be lower than some other teams in the league, they have shown an ability to create chances through other means and have been successful in capitalising on those chances.
La Liga
FC Barcelona is currently the most overperforming team in the Spanish La Liga. They are sitting in first place with 71 points, despite their xPoints of 55.6.
One of the factors contributing to their overperformance is their defence, which has been outstanding. They have only conceded nine goals, which is lower than their xGoals against of 23.55, indicating that their defence has been performing at a very high level. This is a significant improvement from their defensive performances in recent seasons and has been a key factor in their success this year.
Offensively, Barcelona’s xGoals of 55.95 is only slightly higher than their actual goals scored of 53, indicating that they have not been as clinical in front of goal as they could be. However, they have shown an ability to create chances, with an average of 23.35 touches in the penalty area per game and a pass success rate of 88.90%, which is the second-highest in the league.
Barcelona’s possession-based style of play has been a hallmark of their success in recent years, and this season is no exception. Their possession rate of 62.6% is the highest in the league, and they have also averaged 62.37 passes to the final third per game, indicating that they are able to maintain possession while also creating opportunities.
Defensively, Barcelona’s 33.58 interceptions per game is the lowest in the league, and their 57.10 defensive duels per game show that they are not likely to engage in physical battles with their opponents.
Overall, Barcelona’s overperformance can be attributed to a combination of factors, including their outstanding defence, possession-based style of play, and ability to create chances. While their finishing could be more clinical, their ability to dominate possession and control the game has been a key factor in their success this season.
Serie A
Lazio is one of the most overperforming clubs in the Italian Serie A this season. Despite having an xPoints of only 38.7, they have managed to accumulate 55 points so far, putting them in the second position in the league table.
Their attack has been impressive, scoring 44 goals, which is more than their xGoals of 37.58. This shows that they have been clinical in front of goal, converting their chances efficiently. Their defence has been outstanding, conceding only 19 goals, which is way less than their xGoals against of 35.9.
In terms of possession, Lazio has had an average of 50.3%, which is not particularly high, but they have managed to make the most of their possession by creating opportunities and converting them into goals. They have been taking an average of 9.95 shots per game and making 8.53 crosses, showing that they need fewer opportunities.
In terms of passing, Lazio has been averaging 473.97 passes per game, with only 35.11 of them being long passes. They have been making 7.97 through passes and 5.82 smart passes, which shows that they have the ability to penetrate opposition defences with incisive passes.
Their challenge intensity has been measured at 4.9, indicating that they are likely to not press intensively. Instead, they also like to play in a deeper block.
Overall, Lazio has been one of the most impressive teams in the Italian Serie A this season, performing well above expectations. Their solid defence, clinical attack, and well-rounded midfield have been the key factors in their success. If they can maintain their current form, they could finish the season in a very respectable position.
Ligue 1
The French Ligue 1 has seen some impressive overperforming clubs this season, with Paris Saint-Germain and Olympique Marseille leading the pack.
Firstly, let’s take a look at Paris Saint-Germain. With xPoints of 54.7 and actual points of 66, PSG have overperformed this season even if they are still not satisfied with their sporting performances so far. They have scored 68 goals out of an expected 64.68, and have only conceded 29 goals despite an xGA of 38.67. This performance has kept them in the top spot in the league, with a comfortable lead over their rivals.
With a market value of 882.550.000 euros, PSG have a formidable squad that has been dominant in attack, recording 13.64 shots per game but only 8.91 crosses per 90. They have also been impressive in possession, averaging 59.5% possession per game.
Olympique Marseille is another team that has overperformed in Ligue 1 this season. With an xPoints of 49.8 and actual points of 60, they have exceeded expectations. They have scored 54 goals out of an expected 54.71, but have conceded only 29 goals despite an xGA of 39.57. Their impressive defensive record can be attributed to their challenge intensity of 6.5 and PPDA of 8.51, indicating that they are putting pressure on their opponents and not allowing them too much time on the ball.
With a market value of 259.200.000 euros, Marseille have shown that they can be a force to be reckoned with. They have recorded 12.49 shots per game, 15.55 crosses per game and have averaged 56.6% possession.
In conclusion, both Paris Saint-Germain and Olympique Marseille have been overperforming in the French Ligue 1 this season, with impressive performances in defence.
Conclusion
In conclusion, overperforming clubs are those that have exceeded their expected points based on their xG and xGA data. In the top five European leagues, there have been several clubs that have overperformed this season, including Arsenal, Manchester United, Union Berlin, FC Barcelona, Lazio, Olympique Marseille and Paris Saint-Germain.
It’s important to note that not all overperforming clubs need to be in first place in their respective leagues, as their success may also depend on the performances of other clubs. Additionally, defensive stability appears to be of greater importance than overperforming expected goals, as clubs with a strong defence can often secure victories with fewer goals and concede fewer goals than expected.
Overperforming clubs can provide an exciting and unpredictable element to football, challenging the status quo and making the league more interesting for fans.
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