Has Diego Simeone Gamble To Play More Expansive Football Paid Off?

Longtime Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone built his stellar reputation off of defensive solidity and tactical discipline.

The maverick Argentine has become an icon at the Wanda Metropolitano for his exploits throughout his stint in charge of Los Rojiblancos.

So why, with all that success under his belt, did Simeone abandon his defence-first style of play for something more expansive? And has the upgrade worked?

The Glory Days

Throughout the first half of his tenure in the Spanish capital, the former Argentina captain became known for his rock-solid 4-4-2 formation.

In goal, there was first Thibaut Courtois and then, in later years, Jan Oblak.

At the heart of his defence were many mountains, such as Diego Godin, Miranda, and, in more recent times, Jose Maria Gimenez.

In midfield, it’s a similar story, with tenacious holding players such as Gabi, Koke, and Tiago.

Simeone would have his match winners out wide and upfront.

Strikers such as Diego Costa and Falcao have led the line, while wingers like Yannick Carrasco have stolen the show.

Simeone’s teams were traditionally characterized by their ability to absorb pressure and strike on the counter-attack.

However, in recent years, there has been a noticeable shift in Simeone’s tactical philosophy, with Atletico Madrid adopting a more expansive style of play.

Adapting to the Modern Game

At the heart of El Cholo’s tactical evolution is a desire to adapt to the changing landscape of European football, where possession-based, high-pressing teams that play out from the back have dominated.

The likes of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City and Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool have set the standard with their fluid attacking play, promoting Simeone to reconsider his approach.

His initial changes yielded immediate success as a new-look Atleti outfit claimed the La Liga title once again in 2021.

Central defenders Gimenez, Mario Hermosom and Stefan Savic were expected to be more comfortable with the ball at their feet, while technically proficient fullbacks such as Kieran Trippier had plenty of expectation on them to create from deep.

In midfield, captain Koke was joined by the technically proficient Saul as well as the unyielding engine of Marcos Llorente.

Up front, there was more emphasis placed on technique.

Joao Felix joined from Benfica for €126m to be partnered with one of the greatest strikers of all time, Luis Suarez.

Those initial changes initially worked wonders, but three years later, no further success has been found.

Strategic Comparisons – Drawing Inspiration From Blackjack

One such arena where Simeone may well have turned to when determining he needed to change his ways was the world of online blackjack, where strategic decision-making and adaptability are crucial.

Simeone’s transition to a more expansive style mirrors a blackjack player’s shift from traditional card-counting strategies to more aggressive betting systems like the Martingale.

That is to say, just as a cautious blackjack player might stick to basic strategy—hitting on 16 when the dealer shows a 7 or higher, standing on 12 when the dealer shows a 4—Simeone’s initial defensive 4-4-2 formation represented a low-risk, high-percentage approach.

This conservative style, like card counting in blackjack, relied on patience and exploiting opponents’ mistakes rather than forcing the action.

In blackjack, players must constantly evaluate risk versus reward.

Subsequently, a seasoned blackjack player adjusts their game plan based on the dealer’s up-card and running count.

For instance, when the count is favourable, skilled players increase their bets and take more chances, like doubling down or splitting pairs.

By the same token, Simeone has eventually adapted his tactics in an attempt to exploit the weaknesses of high-pressing opponents, incorporating swift transitions and creative offensive plays rather than simply soaking up pressure.

However, there can be no denying that El Cholo’s initial plan yielded far more success than the one he incorporated today.

Whether his original 4-4-2 would have worked a decade later is up for debate.

The beautiful game has evolved rapidly in recent years, with centre-backs and full-backs now morphing into midfielders.

In some extreme cases, teams play with just two defenders and five forwards, an offence that would surely overwhelm even Simeone’s world-beaters of 2014.

Has the Gamble Paid Off?

Over the last two years, Atletico Madrid’s results have been somewhat mixed.

Their more expansive play has yielded some spectacular performances, with the previous season’s come-from-behind victory over Italian champion Inter Milan in the Champions League Round of 16 immediately springing to mind.

Atleti were massive underdogs for that particular contest, and their odds of their victory lengthened further when the Nerazzurri raced into a 2-0 aggregate lead.

As Simeone’s side was no longer a defensive team, they already knew how to attack with quality, and that was precisely what they did.

They levelled things up on aggregate thanks to goals from Antoine Griezmann and Memphis Depay before eventually winning on penalties.

However, their newfound defensive frailties reared their heads in the quarter-finals against Borussia Dortmund.

This time around, Atleti led the tie, but the German outfit came roaring back with two goals in three second-half minutes to claim the victory, something that never would have happened a decade ago.

Those vulnerabilities were on full display in this year’s Champions League as well, and a resounding 4-0 thrashing away at Benfica was perhaps the worst result of Simeone’s near-14-year reign.

Whether the Argentine’s more expansive tactics will lead Atletico to glory soon remains to be seen.

They currently sit a distant third in La Liga, behind Barcelona and cross-city rivals Real.

Narrowing the gap between these two behemoths requires victories by any means rather than something easy on the eye.