When Real Madrid raised the Champions League trophy back in 2021/22, Éder Militão, David Alaba and the infamous white chair were at the centre of the celebration.

Fast forward to the present time, and both centre-backs, key starters on that title-winning team, are out for the season with ACL injuries. Real Madrid has quite the conundrum on their hands with just Antonio Rüdiger and Nacho Fernández as their natural centre-backs. To make matters worse, the top centre-back prospect from Castilla, Rafa Marín, is on loan at Deportivo Alavés and does not have a clause to recall him to the capital.

Aurélien Tchouaméni can play the position, and Carlo Ancelotti offered an analysis of the Frenchman’s skill set, saying he would make an amazing centre-back. The consequence is losing his value in midfield, which is admittedly on a rotational basis at this stage.

Two natural centre-backs and one makeshift player isn’t ideal for a team still competing in the Champions League and Copa del Rey. Reinforcements are needed, which is the topic of this data analysis. Through the use of our in-house xGold tool and tracking player statuses across Europe, we’ve identified players who can fill the void, be it as a permanent signing or on a 6-month loan. We’ll start with the least likely targets, which are the young guys who are shining across Europe, then look at a few veteran players who have the skill set but may be difficult to get across the line and then finish up with potential out-of-favour targets.

The young guys

The young guys are unlikely in January because whichever player Real Madrid buys will be a vital part of the club’s young core. This is not a decision to rush into.

Though unlikely to arrive in January, let’s look at a couple of the more likely deals.

Gonçalo Inácio, Sporting CP, 22

Inácio is a player we’ve covered in a previous scout report, looking not only at the data but also at how he conducts himself within Sporting CP’s 3-4-3. Now a full Portuguese international, Inácio is one of the young centre-backs to watch in the game. A solid, though not exceptional, defender, he’s more known for what he does in possession.

There would be a change in system and his function within the backline, as well as the jumping status from Sporting to Real Madrid, so a January transfer may not suit either party, but Inácio is someone Real Madrid will do their due diligence on as a potential summer signing.

The reason he could come in January is that, among the young centre-backs that Real Madrid is supposedly interested in, Inácio comes with a more reasonable release clause than António Silva and would require less negotiation in the likes of Giorgio Scalvini, Willian Pacho and Leny Yoro. Those other players would likely come at a lower price, but Inácio’s release clause puts the deal squarely in Real Madrid’s hands.

Don’t expect this deal to happen in January; anticipate additional rumours in the summer.

Rafa Marín, Deportivo Alavés, 21

This one is tricky. Technically, Marín is a Real Madrid player. On loan at Deportivo Alavés, Marín put in an excellent performance against Real Madrid in the middle of December. In fact, it was the match immediately following David Alaba’s injury.

Marín was sent to Deportivo Alavés to gain experience and prepare himself for a potential role next season. Defensively, he can hold his own, but it’s his work in possession that needs some improvement to prepare himself for the Real Madrid starting XI.

Unfortunately for Madrid, there’s no option for loan termination. To get Marín out of the loan, they would have to negotiate a buyout with Deportivo Alavés. That loan termination will not be easy since Marín is a starter and a key figure in their starting XI. Plus, there’s a question as to whether he is fully prepared to feature in high-stakes matches, both in La Liga and the Champions League.

This is a tricky situation, but Marín would still be the most cost-efficient player in the group. Whether Florentino Perez makes the move to recall Marín is unknown, especially since there are better options for an immediate fix.

Capable veterans but difficult targets

Aymeric Laporte, Al Nassr, 29

A recent signing by Al Nassr, Laporte is a dream signing for Real Madrid. A Champions League and EPL winner, as well as a player with La Liga experience, Laporte is a complete centre-back who would immediately jump into a starting role. His ability to play out of the back and set the tempo is exactly what they need in an Alaba replacement.

Any deal would be for a short-term loan. One of the marquee signings of the Saudi League, his importance to his new club and the financial investment they put into him would make a full transfer virtually impossible. Now, given the status of a club like Madrid, there is a possibility that he could ask for a 6-month loan. From a playing perspective, he might even have a strong desire to make the jump. That said, the business implications are the biggest obstacle here.

Danilo Pereira, PSG, 32

Should Real Madrid try for Danilo, they would receive a reliable, experienced veteran who could step into the starting XI right away. A strong contributor on both sides of the ball, he’s in the midst of a timeshare with Milan Škriniar and Marquinhos. Presnel Kimpembe will return from injury in February, which could push Danilo into fewer minutes.

Danilo is a player who could be available as a loan option or a permanent signing. Perhaps the greatest difficulty in working out a deal is the relationship with PSG. The heated battle for Killian Mbappé has left bad blood between the two clubs. Although Danilo is more of a rotational piece for PSG and could certainly become available at the right price, it’s probably the most complicated deal to work out among these five players.

Mats Hummels, Borussia Dortmund, 35

Mats Hummels. He’s in a peculiar place. He’s still a steady presence on the pitch for Borussia Dortmund, and the club is still competing across multiple competitions, including the Champions League. To further complicate the matter, Dortmund isn’t exactly deep at the position.

Normally, we wouldn’t even mention him in this list. He offers all the traits Real Madrid needs in a David Alaba replacement, but he is still a player of some significance to Dortmund.

Now, the reason we do list him as a potential replacement is that he’s in the last six months of his contract. While Dortmund is unlikely to want him to leave, asking if they would let him go for the right price is worth asking. Allowing the German club to cash out on Hummels six months before his contract ends could be nice. Plus, since he is in the final six months of his contract and 35 years old, the odds are that Dortmund has identified potential replacements.

Could they be swayed into a deal? Maybe. We’ll say this is unlikely, but an intriguing argument must be made for a six-month loan or an 18-month contract at Real Madrid.

Out of favour

Raphaël Varane, Manchester United, 30

Manchester United is scrambling to fill centre-back injuries of their own, but that hasn’t helped Raphaël Varane’s case. The former Real Madrid player who has experienced playing under Carlo Ancelotti may welcome a return to the Spanish capital. Lacking minutes, he’s an ideal candidate for a six-month loan. Much like the acquisition of Kepa Arrizabalaga, Varane would offer a high-quality, short-term fix to keep the La Liga and Champions League hopes alive. While there’s only so much stock you can put into transfer rumours, it does sound as though a short-term return to Madrid is of interest to Varane.

Even though his form has suffered since the move to Manchester United, returning to Madrid and sharing a locker room with several of his former teammates could be the psychological lift the Frenchman needs.

In attack, there’s still a bit of a gap in terms of what he and Alaba can bring to the squad. The Austrian is a significant loss. Even though there’s a little bit of a drop there, there is the assurance that Real Madrid is still getting a highly experienced centre-back who fits perfectly with their tactics. Ancelotti will surely make a push for him, as is Varane likely to push for a temporary move away from his current club situation. Of all the options on the list, Varane’s return to Madrid is the most likely to occur.

David Carmo, Porto, 24

Speaking of out of favour, the curious case of Carmo is one Real Madrid needs to explore. Having been linked with a move to Liverpool as recently as this past summer, the towering Portuguese has all the tools to be a top centre-back, which we have covered in another analysis. His fate at Porto may be sealed with his recent relegation to the B team. According to reports, the manager, Sérgio Conceição, took issue with words directed against the club. The result was his immediate demotion to Porto B. Carmo could be had at a bargain, depending on how significant the spat was.

This is the situation Real Madrid must track. Not only would they receive a quality centre-back, but they’d also have a young one with the potential for continued growth. Carmo’s strengths are on the ball and in the air, which is clearly born out by the statistics. That positioning category gives an indication of his ability to intercept passes and claim loose balls. Given that his duel statistics are underwhelming, there’s at least the assurance that he can add to the side’s defensive tactics through his interceptions.

Carmo’s quality in possession can’t be overlooked, either. Paired with a player like Antonio Rüdiger, Carmo would fill Alaba’s void in possession as the on-the-ball centre-back in the build-out and help the side circulate possession when faced with a mid and low block. He rates well in each of those attacking metrics, which is a top priority for Real Madrid. If they do look for outside help at centre-back, having faith in the new arrival’s ability in possession is a necessity. The midfield can help with some drop in quality from the centre-backs, but getting a player of Carmo’s calibre would limit the help needed.

Conclusion

Having already lost Militão, the injury to Alaba makes an already thin position less secure. There has been some talk that Real Madrid will not dip into the transfer market for outside help, but unless Tchouaméni makes a full transition to centre-back for the remainder of the season, that move seems highly unlikely, especially if Real Madrid plans to compete on three fronts.

A loan deal makes the most sense. Militão and Alaba will be back for the 2024 season, so Real Madrid really only needs help to get through the next six months. The first five players listed could be difficult signings. The potential option of recalling Rafa Marín from Deportivo Alavés is the most likely of the five, but even that move is complicated by the fact that there’s not a recall clause.

Varane and Carmo offer the two best solutions. Both could be had for a six-month loan, and in Carmo’s case, could potentially include an option to buy. Giving him a six-month trial while filling a desperate need would give the club an opportunity to gauge his long-term fit. Given his issues at Porto, a short-term deal could be a benefit to all parties.

While there is a possibility that Real Madrid stands pat, greater depth is needed. Some form of deal seems likely, with a loan deal seeming to be the best path forward.

The clock is ticking. Perez has five weeks to make his move.