In the upcoming edition of Copa América 2024, Peru will participate in Group A with Argentina, Chile and Canada.
Although Peru, who have won this championship twice (in 1939 and 1975), qualified for the semi-finals in four out of the last five Copas, their most recent achievement was a second-place finish in the 2019 edition held in Brazil.
Fans are worried about their performance in this current World Cup qualification cycle because they held the last position in the table with only two points in six matches.
They have the weakest attacking line while having the second weakest defence.
In this very tough group, many people ask if Peru can keep passing the group stage as usual in the latest editions.
What adds to the mystery is that they appointed a new coach, Jorge Fossati, who led them in only two friendly matches against Dominican Republic and Nicaragua, winning both.
Therefore, the upcoming friendly matches against Paraguay and El Salvador could also be significant.
This scout report, in the form of a tactical analysis, will provide a detailed analysis of Peru’s tactics under Jorge Fossati at the time of writing.
Predicted starting XI
Peru has recently relied on the 3-5-2 formation as a foundation, with three centre-backs, two wing-backs, three midfielders, and two centre-forwards, as shown in the graph below.
In goalkeeping, the choice ranges between Pedro Gallese, Carlos Cáceda, and Renato Solis.
However, Pedro Gallese will probably be Peru’s number one between the sticks.
Jorge Fossati relies on three centre-backs, who will probably be Aldo Corzo, Anderson Santamaría, and Luis Abram, from the right to the left, knowing that Alexander Callens may fight Anderson Santamaría for the first choice as the middle CB.
Regarding the two flying wing-backs, the coach switched between wingers and full-backs to achieve balance, defend or attack regarding the opponent and the match conditions.
Still, we think that Luis Advíncula and Marcos López will probably be the first choices, knowing that Andy Polo and Miguel Trauco are into consideration.
The first choice as the holding central midfielder will remain Jesús Castillo, while Martín Távara may be a good option on the bench.
The other two midfielders are crucial in their strategy because their role as box-to-box players is crucial in attacking and defending, as we will explain later.
The talented will probably be number one.
At the same time, Sergio Peña, Joao Grimaldo, and Wilder Cartagena will fight for the other place.
The two strikers are Gianluca Lapadula and Paolo Guerrero.
However, Bryan Reyna and Edison Flores may have a chance depending on the opponent, especially the first one who may replace the captain, Guerrero, in certain moments or matches.
Jorge Fossati’s squad age profile is shown below.
The coach’s choices are a mix of experience and youth.
The expertise represented by Paolo Guerrero to withstand the pressure and help the rest of the players and the youth like Piero Quispe and Ro to cut the ball and make quick transitions on which they depend.
Attacking phase
The statistical data presented offers valuable insights into the team’s playing style.
Based on their recent performance, Peru can be labelled as the underdogs heading into the tournament, and this is clear in the graph’s low attacking statistics.
They can’t keep possession much and also can’t do enough progressive passes, with a 35.2 percentile per 90.
It is also clear that they couldn’t threaten the opponents’ goals, with 11.7 shots on target and xG per match percentiles.
However, we can predict improvement in some points in the last two matches, which may warrant optimism.
Let’s see in detail.
In the photo below, their usual attacking 3-5-2 formation is evident.
They depend on their wing-backs to stretch the width, exploiting the two attacking midfielders and attacking the half-spaces.
They also make the best use of their strikers to fix the defending line to make it easy for the midfielders to receive the ball in the gap between the defence and the midfield.
However, they can do another trick with one striker dropping to obtain while the other runs behind him in the area he left with the far midfielder pushing high to take the attention of a defender and to receive any possible cross after that, as shown in the second photo below.
This shape forces the opponent to have specific roles in defending because if the left centre-back has the ball, as shown below, he should have many passing options, which are the left wing-back, the holding midfielder, the left centre midfielder, and the striker who drops.
The opponent’s midfielder below faces a problematic question: Press the ball carrier or cover the area behind him, cutting the passing lane to the midfielder.
When he decides to press, the left centre-back finds the midfielder behind him with a third-man pass with the striker who drops to receive, as shown below.
Coming to another strength, their stretched wing-backs give them an advantage when they decide to switch the direction of play quickly, as shown below.
They have two methods to do that.
The first one is shown below, with the yellow midfielder fixing the opponent’s midfielder and preventing him from covering behind the right-back, who goes up for the wing-back while the striker cuts behind him to receive the ball.
The second way is shown in the two photos below, which asks the striker to fix the centre-back, preventing him from covering behind the right-back while asking the yellow midfielder, Piero Quispe, to be the one who cuts behind the opponent’s right-back.
This could also be more effective if this midfielder decides to send a cross to the box, with the two strikers and the far midfielder waiting for it.
Defensive phase
In terms of defensive statistics, it is clear that they prefer mid-press to high-press, knowing that their best recovery rank is in the mid-third, with a 35.2 percentile, while being 23.5 in the final third.
It is also may be a warning indicator of their dealing with aerial duels because their aerial duels won are in the 5.8 percentile, although they got into so many aerial duels with 70.5 percentile,
Their PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action) percentile rank stands at 17.7, showing a low level of pressing intensity in relation to their competitors.
It is clear that they are not rushing to get the ball back and retain possession.
In the photo below, they wait in a 5-3-2 shape in a mid-block while not rushing to get the ball back quickly.
They ask the two strikers and the three midfielders to stand narrowly, waiting for the side pass, and then they implement a side-pressing method.
When the pass goes to the left side, the left midfielder goes to press while a shifting process happens with the holding midfielder going instead of him and the far midfielder going instead of the holding one.
At the same time, the close striker tries to cover behind the pressing midfielder as much as possible while the far one pushes forward to prevent the switching option to pass back to the centre-back and then to the other side, as already done in the second photo below.
The opponent finds no way except to hit the ball into the midfielder, resulting in a throw-in.
Suppose the striker has time to press the ball when going to the side, as shown below.
In that case, it is preferable to keep pressing and let them have an additional midfielder in the second line in a 3-v-2 good situation, with a free midfielder to cover the needed area, depending on the situation.
They suffer when they can’t have this free additional player in the midfield.
One of these cases is shown below when the opponent faces them with a 5-4-1 formation, but with a small trick: asking one of the inside wingers, the left one, in this case, to drop to receive, in pink.
The situation in the midfield before that was three against two, as they prefer, but after that, they become three against three, which forces the right midfielder to go to press this dropping winger who should be more forward, like his teammate on the right side.
This shifting isn’t organised, which causes the gap below, which could be easily exploited, with the striker standing with the left centre-back to fix him to make sure that the wing-back is in a 2-v-1 situation.
Transitions
In the attacking transition, they depend on Piero Quispe, who usually goes to help the two strikers and get the ball back, as shown in the two photos below.
After that, his ability to run became a passing option, and he chose to run from the defender’s blind side, as shown in the third and fourth photos below.
His ability to dribble and score goals is evident, as shown in the two photos below.
They are usually safe in defending transitions because they don’t take many risks and because of their three centre-backs, who are always ready at the back for any counterattacks.
In the photo below, they lose the ball, but the narrow shape of the three midfielders makes them ready to counterpress.
If the ball passes them, the three centre-backs are ready at the back, as shown in the second photo below.
Forwards
The Uruguayan coach recently depended on two strikers; he chose four players to play in the latest two friendly matches, which may mean that he still thinks about that.
Gianluca Lapadula and the captain, Paolo Guerrero, will probably be the first choice, while Bryan Reyna and Edison Flores are also important options, especially the first one who may replace the captain.
This varies depending on the opponent, the game plan and the tactical battles during the games.
Midfielders
The midfield in Peru’s system plays a dynamic and significant role due to its fluidity and awareness.
As we have mentioned, they have essential roles in pressing and attacking.
The coach relies on Piero Quispe for the two attacking midfielders because of his mentioned skills.
At the same time, the other one may be Sergio Peña, who can also be useful in keeping and progress the ball, but the coach might rely on Wilder Cartagena to be more helpful while defending to achieve balance.
The holding defensive midfielder will probably be Jesús Castillo to help the team defensively and in counterpressing, while Martín Távara is also an option.
Regarding the wing-backs, the coach depends on them to stretch the player in attacking while also being good at defending when they decide to stand in mid or low-blocks, so he sometimes uses full-backs while using wingers in other cases.
However, we predict that he will choose the two full-backs, Luis Advíncula and Marcos López, in right and left depending on the tough teams he will face while having Andy Polo and Miguel Trauco as good options, especially the first when he needs to attack.
Defenders
Jorge Fossati relies on three centre-backs who will probably be Aldo Corzo, Anderson Santamaría and Luis Abram, from the right to the left, knowing that Alexander Callens may fight Anderson Santamaría for the first choice as the middle centre-back.
Aldo Corzo is likely the number one right centre-back because he is a right-back, which shows that he can dribble, pass, and help in the ball progression.
After all, the three centre-backs stand widely, as mentioned above, with the right and left centre-backs given instructions to dribble forward to make the opponent’s midfielder go forward to face the ball carrier, leaving a gap behind him.
However, Miguel Araujo, who is a centre-back, is a good choice if they decide to defend more.
Key player
You may have predicted their key player.
Piero Quispe has much potential to make us see that he may be Peru’s key player.
The graph below shows his great role in keeping possession and ball progression while not being very bad at defending.
We should mention that he plays 10th with his club, Pumas UNAM, which means that his defending statistics may be lower than expected with Peru.
Although his rank is so bad at defensive duels won, he ranks 53.7 at defensive duels, which means that he has the intention to defend and get into defensive.
He ranks 55.85 in positioning, a mix of tackles and interceptions, which is a moderate ratio.
Coming to his impressive strengths, it is clear that he is excellent in passing and attacking compared with his competitors in the same tier.
As we have mentioned, he can move his team to the final third through excellent progressive and dangerous passes, knowing that it is difficult to do that while also keeping his accuracy excellent, with a 91.7 percentile.
As we mentioned, his dribbling is good, which helps him carry the ball and lead the transitions.
He also has a moderate expected goal contribution per 90 ratio, 56.05.
We have already shown his important role in transitions.
Now, let’s see how his individual skills help the team progress the ball forward.
In the photos below, he fakes that he will run forward and then comes back to receive with a quick turn to look for passing forward options.
After he finds the passing options, he passes the ball accurately into the empty areas but does not feel that it is enough, so he continues to run forward to be a passing option later.
Tournament Prediction
It is difficult to predict in such a big event, especially since the coach has only led two games at the time of writing, but let’s say that Argentina may hold the first two positions in that group, in theory.
At the same time, Canada may potentially spring a surprise.
Let’s wait and see the new coach’s effect, but Peru may come last.
We should also mention that opponents must consider Peru’s new defensive 5-3-2 shape because it might be challenging to break through.
As we explained in this analysis, they can also target the two strikers and Piero Quispe in quick transitions.
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