Optimism is growing in the lily-white side of North London ahead of the new season. Tottenham Hotspur ended the 2021/22 campaign in impressive form, snatching fourth spot from rivals Arsenal during the final weeks of the season. Sat in ninth place upon Antonio Conte’s arrival as manager in November, Spurs finished the season on a run of just one defeat in their final 11 league games to secure Champions League qualification; an achievement that was fundamental for keeping Conte at the club.
Last summer was very disrupted. From Euro 2020 distractions to the fiasco that was the appointment of Nuno Espírito Santo to the Harry Kane transfer saga; the season started poorly and Nuno was sacked after five defeats in his first 10 Premier League games in charge.
Conte managed to turn the tide, despite some struggles along the way. This was most evident in the form of Harry Kane, who had scored just once and assisted just once in his first 13 games of the 2021/22 season but finished the campaign with 17 goals and nine assists in 37 appearances.
Conte is a serial winner and a top-four finish is not enough for him, but from the situation he inherited, it was satisfactory. Can he guide this Spurs side to new heights and mount a serious title challenge this season? Tottenham are definitely a problem for the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United. Can they become a problem for Liverpool and Manchester City?
This tactical analysis will shed light on Tottenham’s prospects ahead of the new season. The analysis debates whether they can, realistically, become title contenders under Antonio Conte.
Squad depth and new recruits
Since the Italian boss stepped through the door, he has emphasized the need for reinforcements — the importance of having a squad of 16 to 18 players of similar quality. One of Conte’s first realizations on arrival at Tottenham was the drop-off in quality from the main group of 12 or 13 players to those who could come into the team to replace them.
So far, Spurs have been busy in the transfer market. Chairman Daniel Levy has provided the manager with six new signings, spending over €100m. In came Ivan Perišić (free), Fraser Forster (free), Yves Bissouma (€29.2m), Richarlison (€58m), Clement Lenglet (loan) and Djed Spence (€14.7m).
The theme of Conte’s summer recruitment drive has been to target players with aggression and desire as well as proven quality and a winning mentality that fit into his tactics.
Looking at the team’s squad depth for the upcoming season, it is safe to say that they are on course in terms of numbers and personnel. What the new signings have also brought is extra quality to strengthen the first team.
Perišić is a Conte player full of experience and know-how. He is ready-made for this system as a wing-back and has European experience under his belt. The 33-year-old played a starring role as a left wing-back helping Inter to win the 2020/21 Serie A title under Conte. The Croatian is versatile and two-footed; he has a powerful shot and supplies great crosses to the strikers.
Last season, Perišić scored eight goals and provided seven assists in Serie A from the left wing-back position. He also completed 50% of his dribbles as well as averaging 1.7 attempted dribbles, 1.5 key passes in open play, 0.9 shots in open play, 0.2 fouls won, and 1.5 defensive actions in the opposition half per 90.
The heat map from the 2021/22 season illustrates that he still possesses the stamina to patrol the whole left flank despite his age. He spends an even amount of time in both halves of the pitch. Despite the defensive responsibilities he needs to undertake, this has not compromised his ability to go forward and make an impact in attack.
In comparison with Sergio Reguilón’s heat map from last campaign, we notice how much more Perišić is involved on both ends of the pitch.
Richarlison’s signing from Everton was initially greeted with some confusion by fans. Why spend €58m on another winger when you already have such an established front three? You don’t need to look further than the league’s top two for answers. To challenge on all fronts, you need to add depth, quality and competition year on year. Both Manchester City and Liverpool have two reasonably Premier League calibre starting XIs.
The Brazilian is a proven Premier League player and international goal scorer; he can play across all the front three positions. Son averaged 1.5 dribbles per 90 minutes last season while Kulusevski averaged 1.4 — Richarlison, for comparison, averaged 1.4 dribbles per 90 minutes for an Everton team that averaged the lowest share of possession per match (39.1%) in the Premier League last season. His key passes record is also comparable to Kane’s and Kulusevski’s.
While Richarlison is good with the ball at his feet, it’s his quality out of possession that might be most appealing to Conte. The Brazilian averages 0.96 tackles won per 90 minutes, placing him among the 97th percentile for players in his position.
Bissouma, meanwhile, has been added to play the “destroyer” role. During his spell at Brighton, he proved to be a high-end action midfielder who will add much-needed steel and grit to Spurs’ core. He is an elite ball-winner (2.34 interceptions and 2.13 tackles won per 90), ranking in the 86th and 87th percentile for interceptions and tackles won respectively compared to other midfielders in the top five leagues.
He also recorded an 89.7% pass completion for Brighton last season, attempting an average of 50 passes per game – ranking in the top 10% for pass completion among midfielders in the top five leagues.
In defence, the acquisition of Lenglet from Barcelona on loan is an astute piece of business. The Frenchman never got a long run of games last season for Barcelona, starting in only seven of his 21 appearances. This record could give Spurs fans cause for concern. However, the stats tell a different story. Lenglet was in the top 1% for progressive passes and progressive carries per 90 last season.
His ball-playing ability builds depth at centre-back for Spurs, giving them another option on the left of the three. Ben Davies was the only existing left-footed player who can operate in that position, and he is naturally a left-back. Lenglet will provide healthy competition and could be more suited to the role in his preferred position. It could be viewed as similar to the Alessandro Bastoni/Alexander Kolarov rotation at Inter under Conte.
Spence is a young lad who has shown glimpses and is one for the future in a position which Conte likes to be stacked. Looking at the depth graphic, the wing-back positions are bloated and departures seem certain, with Matt Doherty and Sergio Reguilón the two players being linked with moves away. Lucas Moura has started at right wing-back in the team’s preseason fixtures so far.
“It’s a good option,” said Conte, who compared Lucas to Perišić, Victor Moses and Antonio Candreva — all wingers he has successfully converted into wing-backs.
The mentioned players all have similar traits that led Conte to alter their positions. They were all more of traditional wingers whose main role was to play wide near the byline and provide crosses into the box, while also tracking back to cover their full-back. Conte prefers to play with modern forwards — attack-minded, narrow, interchanging positions and making runs in behind. He has developed the habit of converting players that possess high levels of speed, stamina, work rate, awareness and good crossing ability to the wing-back position.
Despite the signings, Tottenham’s main men will most definitely remain Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, the most lethal strike partnership in Premier League history.
Most Premier League goals in 2022:
15- Son Heung-min
13- Harry Kane
Most Premier League assists in 2022:
8- Dejan Kulusevski
8- Harry Kane
Spurs were in scintillating form in front of goal during 2022, with Son finishing as joint top-scorer, sharing the prize with Mohamed Salah. With around a month to go till the closure of the transfer window, Spurs might even be up to some more business in the market.
Conte mentality
Conte is relentless. He’s not interested if in four years the team will have a good squad — he probably won’t be there. He wants to win now, or he’s off. He likes to buy ready-made players that fit his identity, like a Perišić or Richarlison — one who is made for success now.
When he arrived at Chelsea, he bought Premier League winner N’Golo Kante and brought back David Luiz to the club. At Inter, his initial signings were Romelu Lukaku, Christian Eriksen, Diego Godín and Ashley Young. Conte’s track record centres on impact and quick success before moving on. His longest managerial spell lasted just three years, that being his stint at Juventus.
It’s also worth noting that his record during his first full season at previous clubs is impeccable. In his first full season in charge in 2008, Bari were crowned Serie B champions and gained promotion to Serie A for the 2009/10 season. At Juventus, not only Conte did win the Serie A title in his first season, but he led the Bianconeri to two more successive Scudetti.
After moving to England, he inherited a Chelsea side that finished 10th in the previous season and led them to the title in his first campaign.
When he first got the Spurs job, Conte did not agree with the direction of the football club. By early February they’d lost to Wolves and Southampton in the Premier League and he was absolutely furious. Then they lost to Burnley, and he had a total meltdown.
This was the moment their whole season changed, as he went after everything at the club. Suffice to say, Conte demands the highest level and the players quickly learned that.
With a full pre-season to work with, the team is destined to begin the season strongly and ready themselves to fight on all fronts. Reports have emerged of Conte’s rigorous fitness drills, with some players completing 42 laps of the pitch during one training session, and players such as Kane and Son collapsing midway through. He is determined to maximize every minute on the training pitch and build up the team’s physicality to his standards and demands.
Dropped points
A good measure of analyzing if Spurs can put in a proper challenge this season is to see where they dropped points last season and how things can improve.
If we look at the dropped points under Conte, many of them came against teams outside the top eight. Spurs have generally struggled against the teams they are expected to beat while they have become known for frustrating the top teams and being big-game performers under Conte.
They managed to beat champions Manchester City twice and got away with two draws against runners-up Liverpool, with the draw at Anfield arguably costing the Reds the title. Against the top teams such as Liverpool, Spurs have become known for dropping deep and playing on the counter-attack.
This has become a feature of Antonio Conte teams — looking to close down the spaces and then use his weapons to kill the opponent.
When Spurs win the ball back and are put under pressure, it is Kane who drops back into the playmaker role to serve as the outlet and release the front players in Son and Kulusevski.
Spurs often struggled against low blocks and teams that pressed smartly. Against low blocks, the team often lacked that killer ball to break down defences, maybe due to the absence of an attack-minded midfielder in the squad. “I think that we have a team that is very good if we find space to attack. When we find a team that they are very narrow and they defend very well with all the team under the ball, we need to improve” stated Conte. Lenglet and Bissouma’s technical abilities should provide the team with an extra edge to break down low blocks, find the spaces and handle pressure.
When Spurs face a side that dominates the ball, they find joy on the counter-attack to exploit the spaces with the speed of their front players.
The development of the side during the final few months of the season, coupled with the new signings and full pre-season, will factor into Spurs playing a more dominant style of football and executing the manager’s plan to perfection.
In the friendly against Sevilla, Spurs pressed the Spanish side high up the pitch during the build-up phase with the front seven all engaging in Sevilla’s third of the pitch.
The table in the 28 league games since Conte’s arrival has Tottenham in (a distant) third place.
- Manchester City – 73 points
- Liverpool – 70 points
- Tottenham – 56 points
- Arsenal – 52 points
- Chelsea – 49 points
- Newcastle United – 45 points
If Tottenham can turn some of the draws and defeats of last season into wins, the gap is poised to become narrower to the top two.
Competition
Despite the optimism and squad enhancement, it is a daunting task to overcome City and Liverpool — arguably the two best teams in Europe. The north London club finished 22 points off title winners Man City and 21 off Liverpool, who continue to be the pacesetters in the Premier League.
“Juventus had for many, many years, created a gap with Inter of more than 20 points,” said Conte. “In the first season, we reduced the gap. In the second season, we won but, in Italy, there was only one team to fight… Here there are many teams. Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea. Chelsea last year won the Champions League and this year won the Club World Cup. Don’t forget Manchester United, they are strong, and Arsenal, also, going into the transfer market and spending money. “
City have gotten stronger with the acquisitions of Erling Haaland and Kalvin Phillips while Liverpool are more or less still the same team, replacing Sadio Mane with Darwin Nunez.
The below graph showcases the total points for the first and second-placed teams in the Premier League for the last 10 seasons, as well as the points Spurs have accumulated during the same period.
According to the recent trend, any team would have to get to around the 90-point mark to have a realistic chance of winning the title. Across the past 10 seasons, Spurs have only gained more than 80 points once, in the 2016/17 season. To expect them to make such a big jump in one season is a long shot and seems highly unlikely.
The expectation for Tottenham is to at least be competitive and put up a decent fight. A successful season would be to pick up some silverware after a 14-year trophy drought, having last won the League Cup in 2008. That should be the realistic target for a team with little to no winning experience.
Conclusion
Conte used Richarlison as the example of why Tottenham’s strengthening has been so important this summer.
“Richy for sure is a player that we signed to improve the quality of the squad. Also the possibility to make rotations with players that don’t drop the level. If you want to be competitive and become a strong team, the squad has to be with at least 16, 17, 18 players that have to keep the same level, not the level up and then the other level medium, otherwise you are not competitive,” he explained.
“I think with the club we have started, but we have just started to do this improvement, to try to have the possibility during the game, with the five substitutions, and in between one game and another game with the Champions League to make rotations.”
“You can build in one year a great building, but I think last season we put in a good foundation and now, this summer, we tried to build the first and second floor but we know that we need a bit of time.”
It’s all about winning trophies now for Spurs and if you don’t win a trophy under Conte then you’re probably not going to win one with another manager in the near future.
There is positivity around Spurs this summer, among those inside the club and among the expectant fans. In contrast to last year’s chaos, this time the season cannot come soon enough.
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