Turkey will be participating in Euro 2024 starting from June 14 with the hope of achieving the best possible result, starting by overcoming the group stage.
Looking at the squad and the team’s recent results, things look promising,, and the overall mood surrounding the team reflects optimism about their ability to do well in this tournament.
The team has all that is needed to succeed.
With a mixture of experience, talent and physical abilities, Turkey have the potential to disturb bigger teams and shouldn’t fear anyone.
Perhaps the most suitable example to mention in this regard is Turkey’s convincing 3-2 win over Germany, albeit in a friendly.
Nevertheless, that game, in particular, shows that Turkey are balanced and powerful enough to achieve something remarkable during this competition, especially if they play with the same conviction and are ambitious enough during the group stage and eventually the knockout phase as well.
It is true that Turkey aimed to host the tournament but were not successful in winning their “battle” with Germany, yet this should represent another motive for the team to do better than expected and use this factor in their favour, especially when knowing that many of the players in Turkey’s squad are very familiar with playing in Germany — talking mainly about Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Ozan Kabak, Salih Özcan, Kaan Ayhan, and Kenan Yıldız.
In this tactical analysis scout report, we will be covering everything related to Turkey’s tactics, from their predicted starting line-up to their attacking and defensive strengths and weaknesses.
The analysis will also explore their key players characteristics and focus on what the team needs to fix in order to reach the best possible results during the tournament.
Predicted Starting XI
Vincenzo Montella has been experimenting with several formations during the latest period, including the 4-1-3-2, the 4-2-3-1, the 4-3-3, the 4-1-4-1, the 4-4-2, and more.
This being said the 4-2-3-1 remains the most suitable formation for Turkey.
The four defensive players and goalkeeper are not very problematic for Turkey as the choices are rather obvious.
The first-choice goalkeeper is more likely going to be Uğurcan Çakır since Altay Bayindir did not have a lot of playing time at Manchester United and, therefore, lacks match sharpness for a competition like this.
Turkey have two strong full-backs in Roma’s Zeki Çelik and Valencia’s Cenk Özkaçar.
However, the centre-back duo of Ozan Kabak and Merih Demiral looks a bit worrying, as both players are not powerful enough to guarantee the resistance of the big European teams’ attacks.
The midfield can be considered Turkey’s most powerful area as it combines talent and experience with names like Hakan Çalhanoğlu who has been excelling at Internazionale for the last two seasons at least, and Salih Özcan, who is also doing very well at Borussia Dortmund as he has been crucial so far in their UEFA Champions League journey in particular.
The four attacking players also represent one of Turkey’s most powerful weapons in this tournament, as names like Arda Güler, Yusuf Yazıcı, Barış Yılmaz and Enes Ünal are capable of disturbing and scoring against Portugal, Czechia and Georgia.
What is also impressive for Turkey is that they have some fairly good backup options who can add a lot to the attacking performances of the team during the second half; we are talking mainly about Juventus’ Kenan Yıldız and Cengiz Ünder, who have the necessary experience and talent to make the difference when they get subbed-in.
These players can also start in some of the games as they have everything needed to begin instead of the two wingers.
Also, Montella tends to use Real Madrid‘s Güler as an advanced playmaker instead of Yazıcı at times.
Barış Yılmaz can also replace Enes Ünal as a striker while using another winger instead while exploiting the abilities of Yılmaz as a striker.
The following graphic is very telling in terms of age, as it shows that most players in the Turkish squad are in their peak years.
Therefore, most of them are in very good physical shape and can guarantee physical readiness throughout the tournament and during the whole 90 minutes.
This means that Montella will also have a lower rate of expected injuries in this tournament, as most players are fit and should be able to resist the tiring rhythm of games more than older players.
Montella will have to exploit this fact in Turkey’s favour by applying high pressing in an intelligent yet intensive way when needed, as he has all that is needed to succeed when applying pressure on opponents.
Attacking Phase
What is already impressive regarding Turkey’s attacking phase is their shots-on-target rate, which equals 84.0%.
That’s excellent, especially when we compare it to the number of shots per game.
This means that Turkey reaches the goal with ease most of the time and against numerous opponents, as they tend to opt for shots from distance so often with a high success rate.
All of Çalhanoğlu, Yazıcı, Yılmaz, Ünder, Güler and Yıldız can shoot well from distance and have a special final touch in front of goal, and that’s mainly why Turkey’s xG is high.
The xG per shot is also good enough and highlights the team’s overall shooting dangers even though this particular xG is not as high as the shots on target average.
Turkey’s passing numbers are below average and need to be improved during the Euros.
Otherwise, it will be difficult for the team to create numerous goalscoring opportunities per game.
Progressive passes, final third passes, passing accuracy, and even possession rates are all a bit worrying for Turkey, even though they have some excellent passers in their team, especially midfielders.
Turkey proved against Germany, in particular, that they can punish any team attacking-wise as they tend to play with a high defensive block and often use the full-backs in attack.
This goal highlights their tendency to opt for long passes towards the wings.
Wingers overlap with full-backs to create some space at the back of the defensive line.
Then, the full-back can either cross towards the box or penetrate/cut inside by himself to the box, like Ferdi Kadıoğlu did in this action.
In addition, Kaan Ayhan, Çalhanoğlu and Yazıcı’s passing abilities can be crucial during the Euros as they have always been the source of danger for Turkey.
Montella relies on these players a lot for chance creation, using their key short passes and crosses at times too.
At the same time, players like Yıldız, Güler, Ünal, Yılmaz and Ünder will need to move a lot inside the final third to provide passing options and create space for each other like they did before.
Plus, their finishing will have to be excellent during the tournament in order to punish powerful defences.
Yılmaz’s goal against Germany showcases the team’s attacking prowess and great sense of the goal.
The action started with Ayhan’s ball protection on the right side of midfield before he was able to cross the ball towards the opposite side, where Yıldız was waiting for a pass while getting away from marking.
Such key long passes from midfielders are Turkey’s main weapon in attack.
Nevertheless, this weapon cannot be sufficient for Turkey as they have to vary their attacking plans and use other attacking solutions to avoid being predictable.
That’s why they also focus on set pieces a lot and greatly rely on early crosses.
Turkey’s attacking players have also proved their excellent abilities in dealing with crosses using first-time shots, controls and shots, headers, and more.
This variation in the way Turkey strikers can deal with crosses makes it complicated for opposing defenders to stop them inside the box as they always alternate the way they deal with the passes they get from the wings.
This example shows one of many actions that Turkey’s strikers were successful in finishing inside the net after dealing perfectly with the crosses they received.
This one, therefore, shows the volley executed by Yunus Akgün after he controlled the ball with one touch to make the ball get higher, executing his volley successfully and in a very coordinated and spectacular manner.
Defensive Phase
When it comes to Turkey’s defensive phase, we can argue that Turkey have been solid enough in defence lately with the expectation of their match against Austria when they lost 6-1.
Despite that game performance, Turkey are capable of resisting numerous teams in Europe thanks to their ability to win most defensive duels per game, as the graphic shows.
What is also positive already is the number of interceptions and the recoveries made per game.
This being said, statistics show that Turkey concede 1.7 goals per game on average and can do more to reduce this average.
More importantly, they have to avoid conceding numerous goals per game and losing their focus in defence like they did against Austria.
What needs to be improved is mainly the aerial duels’ average because it is very low, in addition to the recoveries and interceptions made in mid third and the final third.
This means that a lot of work is needed from Montella and his playing in terms of organised high pressing to make it more effective, fruitful and well-calculated.
One remarkable defensive error that Turkey will need to avoid during this tournament is providing passes to midfield when opponents are applying high pressing or when these midfielders are positioned in a risky way.
The following action led to conceding a goal in a way that could have been avoided if the defender opted for a more secure passing destination and if the midfielder protected the ball well and was able to pass it back without creating problems.
In fact, instructing the players to use one-touch passes without controlling the ball, always paying attention to their surroundings, and protecting the ball with their bodies can prove very helpful in avoiding similar situations, especially considering that Turkey’s midfielders are all experienced and usually know how to play under pressure.
Defending set pieces is also an aspect that Montella and his staff need to address extensively in order to fix what is needed in terms of marking instructions and positive aggression inside the box without committing crucial fouls.
This set-piece goal shows Turkey’s marking issues and how some of the players allow more distance than needed for opponents, which enables them to score headers in similar situations.
Getting closer to opponents and disturbing them physically while trying to be first on the ball is the attitude that needs to be adopted in such actions, unlike the way Müldür defended in this picture.
Transitions
Regarding attacking transitions, we can argue that Turkey often launch counterattacks using three or four players exploiting their full speed to surprise opposing defences.
Most of Turkey’s attacking transitions start from defence and continue on one of the wings to finally be finished by the striker inside the box.
Although some changes might occur during some transitions, this is the way Turkey usually executes transitions in order to create dangerous counterattacks for themselves.
The following example shows one of the recent successful attacking transitions/counterattacks of Turkey from their game against Latvia.
During this action, Kerem Aktürkoğlu was running from behind when the action started on the wing by Yusuf Sari, who received the ball on the right flank from the back.
Sari ran with the ball until he reached the edge of the box, where Aktürkoğlu was perfectly in time to receive an assist and score a goal that highlights the value of Turkey’s excellent transitional work.
It is also worth mentioning that Turkey’s players tend to offer passing options even in such cases where the number of players who can run fast to reach the box prior to the opposing defence can be limited.
Nevertheless, we see in this picture how Cenk Tosun was offering an excellent passing option for Aktürkoğlu in the 86th minute of the game.
When it comes to defensive transitions, however, Montella, his staff, and all the players will have to pay a lot of attention to these situations.
The team has been giving away the ball in ways that can be avoided, therefore complicating things for the defenders.
What is crucial in this regard is to know when to use a high defensive bloc and when to avoid doing it during the game so as to avoid conceding devastating counterattacks.
It was noticed during plenty of Turkey’s recent defensive transitions that the team failed to retreat and get back to their positions to stop the counterattacks, and that’s mainly caused by the non-calculated advanced positioning of the four defenders.
Just like what happened in this example, it is never sufficient to defend with only two players when losing the ball and counterattacks; that’s why Montella needs to revise the way his team deals with similar situations to prevent conceding goals from such actions.
Forwards
Turkey will be relying a lot on their attacking players to get the team to the knockout phase, and strikers like Yıldız, Yılmaz, Bournemouth’s Ünalwill, Aktürkoğlu and Akgün have to provide the attacking depth needed and be in great form regarding finishing as the team is not expected to create numerous goalscoring opportunities per match in such a competitive competition.
Therefore, exploiting half-chances and being always ready to punish goalkeepers is a must for these attacking players in order to pass the group stage and score crucial goals.
These attacking players will have to deal well with the crosses that they will receive, knowing that Turkey relies a lot on crosses.
Most of the forwards in the squad are already good enough with headers and in executing volleys, which can represent an advantage for the team against any defence.
With a mixture of experience and talent, Turkey can be among the best-attacking teams during the first phase, at least if they alternate their attacking plans and don’t focus only on one or two plans.
The players’ characteristics are varied enough to allow Montella to apply numerous attacking tactics without making things complicated.
Midfielders
As mentioned above, Turkey have a very creative midfield with outstanding players who can be considered versatile, meaning that they can master both the defensive and the attacking/playmaking phases.
In fact, Turkey have the possibility of playing with three playmakers: an advanced playmaker who can be Yazıcı or Güler and two deep-lying playmakers, Çalhanoğlu and Özcan.
At the same time, it is up to Montella whether to opt for a more defensive midfield or rather a more attacking one since he can use Çalhanoğlu as an advanced playmaker and add a more defensive midfielder to play alongside Özcan in central midfield.
These midfielders will have to confirm their value and focus mainly on their passing accuracy during the tournament, especially when it comes to passes towards the final third.
This element can be crucial as it would increase Turkey’s number of opportunities and, therefore, allow them to create more goalscoring chances.
Also, focusing on set-piece execution is fundamental, and training on a plethora of ways to execute these free-kicks or corners can help Turkey a lot in the attacking phase.
Nevertheless, remaining attentive regarding their positioning in the defensive phase, making extra efforts to cover for defenders when needed, and helping them on the wings, too, are all necessary for Turkey to perform at their best and eventually win their games.
Defenders
When it comes to defenders, Turkey will certainly have to do their best to avoid conceding crucial goals in the first three matches, especially when playing against a powerful attack like that of Portugal.
This being said, paying extra attention when facing Georgia and Czechia is obligatory because both teams are capable of creating surprises and have the potential of penetrating Turkey’s defence,, whether thanks to their individual abilities like those of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia or Rafael Leão, for instance, or to their excellent usage of set-pieces too.
Players like Demiarl, Kabak, Müldür, Özkacar and Çelik will have to be very attentive to not commit crucial fouls, excel in defensive duels even against top names while paying extra attention to when to advance and when to keep a low defensive bloc to not be punished by counterattacks.
Key Player
Although some of Turkey’s players, such as Yıldız, Güler and Çalhanoğlu, are stealing the light from someone like Yazıcı, who is often overlooked, we opted for choosing Yazıcı as this team’s key player mainly because he is a very talented and dangerous playmaker.
In fact, Yazıcı is an underrated attacking midfielder who is known for his excellent decision-making inside the final third.
He is also outstanding in terms of key passing, set-piece taking, and shots from distance.
In addition to mastering these aspects and representing a big danger whenever he has the ball in the opposition’s half, Yazıcı has already played in numerous positions in midfield.
Most importantly, he did well whenever he was used as a false nine.
Montella can use this idea during the Euros to guarantee more ball possession inside the opponent’s half, as it can be a very suitable idea when facing certain defences.
Also, Yazıcı can be exploited as a second striker while providing a lot of help to the main striker, as he can form a balanced attacking duo with any good striker.
And although his passing accuracy rates can be improved during the Euros, what is remarkable about Yazıcı is his high shooting statistics.
Being able to score goals using both feet represents another crucial advantage for Yazıcı against goalkeepers, as he proved on numerous occasions that he can confuse goalkeepers with his very angled and well-timed shots.
If he succeeds in performing at the same level as his performances at Lille and avoids injuries during the tournament, Yazıcı can make a lot of difference for Turkey throughout the tournament, especially if Montella knows how to get the best of what he can offer and gives him the needed confidence to get 150% from him.
Tournament Prediction
Turkey have some high chances to qualify from this group stage as second at least.
On paper, Portugal are expected to top this group F while Turkey are expected to finish just below Portugal as they have a better squad and football heritage than both Georgia and Czechia.
That being said, Turkey should not think of underestimating Czechia and Georgia, as both teams have the potential to surprise Turkey and Portugal.
At the same time, Turkey has all that is needed to disturb Portugal, and why not surprise them with a win like they did against Germany in a less important game?
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